RADIO
With the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs getting underway on Saturday, we have a Sunday doubleheader to determine the remaining teams that will be headed to the Conference Championship games. Below you can read our matchups analysis article for the Buccaneers vs. Lions game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for playoff leagues and DFS contests.
After handling the slumping Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round, the Tampa Bay Bucs head to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell's upstart squad outlasted the L.A. Rams in a tough opening-round battle. This should be a great matchup between two hard-nosed teams!
Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into an exciting game during the Divisional round. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -6.0
Implied Total: Buccaneers (21.75) vs. Lions (27.75)
Pace: Buccaneers (14th) vs. Lions (19th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (16th), -17.8% Rush (28th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 26.7% Pass (7th), 8.9% Rush (4th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 5.1% Pass (14th), -13.7% Rush (8th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 6.5% Pass (16th), -18.0% Rush (1st)
PFF Coverage Grade: Buccaneers (22nd) vs. Lions (29th)
PFF Rush D Grade: Buccaneers (26th) vs. Lions (5th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Buccaneers (12th) vs. Lions (8th)
EPA/Play Allowed: Buccaneers (8th) vs. Lions (21st)
Matchups We Love
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff entered last week's contest under tremendous pressure with a chance to get revenge on his old team, somewhat like proving an ex-girlfriend they were wrong for breaking up with you. He handled the adversity well with no turnovers and an 81.4% completion rate. It was a huge win for him and the franchise, winning a home playoff game for the first time in over 30 years. On top of that, thanks to their division rivals upsetting the Cowboys, they get to play at Ford Field again this week, which is huge for Goff. The risk of the touchdowns coming on the ground drops him to the QB7, but the matchup is still favorable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
After a spectacular regular season, St. Brown delivered in his first postseason appearance with seven receptions for 110 yards. He led the way in receiving and will get a chance to torch a Tampa Bay secondary that has been beaten all year. He's atop the rankings this week as the WR1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s stats in his last 5 games:
• 39 catches
• 562 receiving yards
• 11 rushing yards
• 4 TDs pic.twitter.com/fsFCG1dCt3— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) January 17, 2024
Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Both backs went over 60 yards and found the end zone. Just as we projected, Montgomery led their ground attack with 14 carries while Gibbs hauled in all four of his targets. What's more impressive is that was against the toughest run defense over the past six weeks of the season in fantasy points allowed. The Buccaneers were the fourth-toughest over that stretch, but they're a worse team with at least as bad a defense overall, so you can fire these up with full confidence with Gibbs as the RB3 and Montgomery as the RB6.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta overcame the odds and managed to suit up. He ran a route on 80% of their dropbacks, earning a 12% target share. He also caught an easy touchdown on a beautifully constructed route. With another week to heal up, you'd expected him to be closer to full health. Combine that with the second-best matchup for tight ends and he deserves a spot in the top five.
UPDATE: LaPorta is listed as questionable after practicing all week. Unless we hear of a setback, he should be out there.
Chris Godwin & Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Blowing out the Eagles at home was another massive accomplishment for this squad, which continues to play inspired football. Philly's defense tackled poorly and failed to cover receivers down the field, opening the door for Trey Palmer, David Moore, and Cade Otton to run wild in the secondary. Evans and Godwin still out-targeted the other wideouts, but Evans failed to come down with multiple deep balls while Godwin did find paydirt. It's a juicy matchup in what will likely be a negative game script, pushing these two into the top 10.
Mike Evans appreciation post. 🏴☠️ pic.twitter.com/pOKz5WNLY1
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 20, 2024
Matchups We Hate
None
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Mayfield orchestrated multiple scoring drives, capitalizing on the pathetic defensive effort from Philadelphia. He had five passes go for over 20 yards, most of them with plenty of yards after the catch, which inflated his total numbers. Nevertheless, he executed well with no turnovers. It's a great spot for him in a dome against a defense that focuses on stopping the run, but he's still a rung below the top signal-callers, landing him behind Goff as the QB8.
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White tore up the Eagles for 72 yards on the ground before they turned things over to Chase Edmonds to wrap up the game. If not for the lopsided affair, they'd have likely kept pounding the rock with him. They didn't need his pass-catching skills because there were so many wide-open throws downfield. He figures to get a full workload in what should be a tightly contested matchup that they'll potentially be trailing in, which is when the check-downs tend to occur. He's in the top five again.
UPDATE: Edmonds is listed as questionable, which further secures the workload for White.
Rachaad White szn continues 😤
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 16, 2024
Cade Otton (TE, TB)
Otton's route participation has been above 85% since Week 7. However, he's finished inside the top 15 just three times because he's rarely utilized. He did blow up in Week 9 with two touchdowns, but it was hard to see that one coming. What was most surprising was leading the team in targets with 11. That level of volume pushes him into the conversation around TE6.
Josh Reynolds & Jameson Williams (WR, DET)
Reynolds joined Goff in the revenge narrative, especially early in the contest. He was everywhere, hauling five passes for 80 yards when it was all said and done. Williams earned just two targets, but giving up big plays is an issue for the Buccaneers, so he's worth considering again this week. Reynolds is the safer of the two with Williams possessing more upside, but both are in that WR15-20 range.
UPDATE: Kalif Raymond has been ruled out, which increases the volume these two will see.
Notable Injuries
Kalif Raymond (knee)
Sam LaPorta (knee)
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