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Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 16. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.
Hi RotoBallers and thanks for joining me for Week 16! With three games on Saturday this week, we'll be dealing with an 11-game main slate. While Week 15 offered us tons of great DFS options - and some ridiculously-high DraftKings scores - the pickings are a bit slimmer this week. That said, we still have some intriguing matchups with players that are in great spots.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are some great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 16.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 16 Picks
Lamar Jackson - BAL @ CLE ($8,000)
If the Ravens are playing on the main slate, then Lamar Jackson is in consideration for me. It sounds simple, but Jackson has been the "DFS MVP" of this season, showing an unbelievably-consistent combination of floor and ceiling from week to week. The Ravens QB is once again expensive, but there have been very few weeks this year when you would have been disappointed to roster him, as he's averaging almost 30 DK points per game this season. Jackson went over 1,100 rushing yards last week, surpassing Michael Vick for the all-time QB rushing record in a season. He should be able to pad that mark this week against a Browns Defense that has allowed opposing QBs to gain 300 yards on the ground this season and appears to be sleepwalking down the stretch.
Drew Brees - NO @ TEN ($5,900)
Drew Brees heads into Week 16 on a tear. The Saints veteran has posted DK scores of 31.3 and 43.1 over his last two games, and heads to Nashville to face a Titans Defense that is 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass. We prefer Brees at home, but we've also seen this Saints offense go on unbelievable high-scoring runs in the past, which makes me content to continue riding the wave in this spot. This matchup carries a projected O/U of 51 with a tight spread and is one of the best games to target on the main slate.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 16 Picks
Joe Mixon - CIN @ MIA ($6,600)
It took 10 weeks, but the Bengals appear to have finally realized what type of player they have in Joe Mixon. Mixon has logged a massive 130 carries since Week 10, which he's converted into 605 rushing yards and three TDs. He brings that hot hand into a beautiful matchup against a Dolphins Defense that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL to opposing RBs and is fresh off relinquishing yet another 100-yard game to Saquon Barkley last week. We're getting a quality player in a tremendous matchup at a reasonable price here and I consider Mixon to be one of the top overall plays on this slate.
Deandre Washington - OAK @ LAC ($4,000)
A great opportunity for salary savings here with Oakland's DeAndre Washington. Rookie Josh Jacobs tried to tough it out last week, but won't be active for this matchup against the Chargers, which will throw Washington back into the primary-back role that he served in Jacobs' absence in Week 14. Washington thrived in the role two weeks ago against Tennessee, logging 53 rushing yards and a TD, as well as 43 receiving yards on six catches. We can expect a similar workload for him against a Chargers Defense that's 22nd in the league in DK points allowed to opposing RBs, which makes him a tremendous value option at just $4k.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 16 Picks
Michael Thomas - NO @ TEN ($9,300)
No need to get cute here...if you can afford Michael Thomas, roster him. Maybe it sounds like an oversimplification, but like we touched on when discussing Lamar Jackson earlier, if you had rostered Thomas every week this season there would be very few weeks you'd walk away disappointed. The Saints wide receiver has been the most consistent pass catcher in the NFL this season. He leads the league in overall targets at 159 - reeling in an eye popping 133 catches- and is averaging a ridiculous 11.4 targets per game. This Titans secondary has been plagued with injuries and has no one that can challenge Thomas in this matchup, which provides a clear path to another huge outing for the Saints star.
Courtland Sutton - DET @ DEN ($6,200)
Courtland Sutton has ascended to the number-one receiver role for the Denver Broncos over the course of this season thanks to the combination of his explosive play and the departure of Emmanuel Sanders. Sutton has been targeted 107 times this year with a healthy aDOT of 12 yards. It's been a mixed bag for him since Drew Lock stepped into the QB role for the Broncos, as Sutton has snagged 13 of 22 targets for 187 yards and two TDs in Lock's three starts. He draws his best matchup of the "Lock Era" this week against a Lions Defense that has been routinely torched as of late. Detroit ranks 31st in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs and is fresh off a Week 15 game against the Bucs in which they allowed over 100 yards to not one, but TWO Tampa receivers. Sutton is a very explosive player in a prime spot against the Lions...the only concern is the erratic play of his QB.
Mike Williams - OAK @ LAC ($5,000)
I've been banging the Mike Williams drum for several weeks now and DraftKings just refuses to bump his price up enough to make me jump ship. Williams comes in at $5k this week, which is still a pittance to pay for a player with his type of significant downfield role. His aDOT of 18 yards leads the NFL among players with 50 or more targets and his 1,460 total air yards ranks ninth in the league. He gets a gasoline-to-fire matchup against an Oakland Raiders Defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 9.68 yards per target to opposing wide receivers. Williams has had some scary-low volume games this year, but his downfield role against this Raiders secondary makes him an awesome boom-or-bust tournament option this week.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 16 Picks
Zach Ertz - DAL @ PHI ($6,400)
It's always nice to bargain shop, but one of the main reasons I'm willing to pay up in a DFS roster is "guaranteed" volume. Over Philly's last six games, Zach Ertz has target counts of: 10/13/6/14/11/11. This is the type of usage that I'll gladly spend up for. Dallas has a solid overall defense, but they also funnel targets to opposing tight ends. The Cowboys rank seventh in the league in DK points allowed to the WR position, but just 27th in DK points allowed to TEs. This is a must-win game for the Eagles and their receiving corps has been ridiculously depleted by injuries, which leads me to believe that Eagles QB Carson Wentz will rely on Ertz heavily in this spot.
Austin Hooper - JAX @ ATL ($4,400)
Austin Hooper was in the midst of a career year before being derailed by an injury in Week 10. He's been underwhelming since returning to the Falcons lineup two weeks ago, but this is a great buy-low spot on the talented TE that is priced at just $4.4k, his lowest tag since Week 4. Hooper has been targeted six times in each of his last two games and is set to take on a Jacksonville defense that has flopped in a huge way this year for a Jags organization that appears to be in turmoil. Jacksonville is tied for the fourth-most TDs relinquished to the TE position and most likely just wants this season to be over. He has been dormant recently, but Hooper possesses as much upside as any tight end on this slate.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 16 Picks
Denver Broncos Defense - DET @ DEN ($3,500)
Vic Fangio's first year as head coach of the Broncos hasn't exactly been smooth sailing, but the defensive guru has kept Denver playing hard. Despite tons of injuries to this defensive unit, we know that the Broncos are always a capable unit at Mile High Stadium. That is especially true this week against a Lions team that has been spiraling down the drain since Matthew Stafford went down with an injury. The Broncos will get to square off against David Blough, who is 0-3 since taking over the Lions starting job. I look for Denver to force the inexperienced QB into some mistakes this week.
Washington Redskins Defense - NYG @ WAS ($2,800)
It doesn't really matter who ends up starting at QB for the Giants this week, I'll be comfortable saving salary with this Redskins unit in a home matchup. Washington has been competent on the defensive side of the ball...and that's truly all that's needed against this turnover-prone New York squad. The 'Skins have amassed 19 sacks over their last four games and should have no trouble adding to the tally against a Giants O-line that has struggled all season.
