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Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for the Conference Championship Round. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.
Hi RotoBallers, and thanks for joining me here for the NFL Playoffs! We're down to the nitty gritty, as the NFL's Conference Championship games are upon us. If you thought a four-game slate was tough, you might be in trouble this weekend, as we only have two matchups to choose from. Fear not though, we're gonna work through this weekend together!
These DraftKings DFS lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are some great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for the Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs.
Good luck with your Divisional Round DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterback - Championship Round Pick
Patrick Mahomes - TEN @ KC ($7,700)
Patrick Mahomes can drop video-game numbers against anyone, but this matchup against the Titans is especially juicy for a Conference Championship game. The Titans allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season, and while Tremaine Brock has helped solidify this Tennessee unit to an extent, we still have to give the green light to Mahomes here. His numbers regressed a bit this season, but make no mistake, he has more upside than any QB on this slate.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Championship Round Picks
Derrick Henry - TEN @ KC ($8,700)
Derrick Henry needs no introduction, as you are probably aware that he's doing things in the postseason that have never been done before...like ever! He squares off against a Chiefs Defense that is a vastly improved unit against the pass, but has still struggled to slow down opposing RBs. KC ranked 30th in the league in DK points allowed to the position this season and relinquished a healthy 4.83 yards per carry to RBs this year. The Chiefs will do everything in their power to slow down Henry this weekend, but I'm not sure it matters. Last weekend against Baltimore he faced an eight-man box a massive 63% of the time (per the NFL's Next Gen Stats) and gained 124 yards on those 19 attempts.
Raheem Mostert - GB @ SF ($4,300)
Tevin Coleman wrecked the dreams of Mostert's backers last week against Minnesota. Going back to Mostert here is definitely risky, but it is an intriguing buy-low spot in tournaments. There are volume concerns after Coleman's strong outing last weekend, but Mostert has been extremely efficient this season. His average of 5.6 yards per carry was the highest for any running back with at least 100 carries. Green Bay allowed 4.77 YPC to opposing RBs this season, the fifth-highest average in the NFL. The volume is concerning here, but Mostert carries tons of upside at this affordable $4.3k price tag.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Championship Round Picks
Davante Adams - GB @ SF ($7,900)
The Niners stout defense is one we'd probably avoid on a bigger slate, but Davante Adams is a "bet on talent" candidate this weekend, despite the difficult matchup. Adams was banged up for a large portion of the season, but he's looked like the stud we know he is since getting back to full health, averaging 118 receiving yards per game over Green Bay's last four. He carried the Packers offense against Seattle last weekend and was targeted 11 times. We should see his volume once again fall somewhere in that range, as it's not hard to envision Green Bay playing from behind in this one.
A.J. Brown - TEN @ KC ($5,200)
Outside of Adams and Tyreek Hill, we'll need to take a shot at receiver on this slate. My favorite gamble is Tennessee's A.J. Brown, an explosive player that has exceeded every expectation during his rookie campaign. Brown topped 100 receiving yards in three of the Titans final four regular season games, but has been a non-factor to this point in the playoffs. We can chalk his disappearing act up to Tennessee's offensive game scripts that have basically consisted of handing the ball to Derrick Henry and throwing a limited number of passes. The Titans want to play that way again this week, but there's a strong chance that they will be playing catch up at some point against the Chiefs in this one. Brown has the ability to post a notable DK score on one play and that's the type of upside I want in my lineups this weekend.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Championship Round Pick
Travis Kelce - TEN @ KC ($7,100)
It's really to take the savings with George Kittle at the TE Position, as his $5.8k is a pretty start difference to Kelce's $7.1k. The value that Kittle offers may well ding Kelce's ownership significantly, which makes paying up for the KC baller somewhat contrarian. Kelce is always a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and that will definitely hold true for this matchup against a Titans team that ended the season ranked 29th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the TE position. We can't expect a repeat of his 10-catch, 134-yard, three TD game of a week ago, but Kelce is the best offensive weapon at the TE position in football and I do look for another huge game.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Championship Round Pick
Green Bay Packers Defense - GB @ SF ($2,400)
It might be simplistic, but when choosing a defense from four teams, I'm looking for the team that's facing the QB that's most likely to make some mistakes. Green Bay is squaring off against a San Fran offense that is run first, but we've seen Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo make some head-scratching throws occasionally and he's the passer that I'm most willing to pick on this weekend when hunting for turnovers.
