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Dave's Week 6 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 6 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
Another week of NFL action is upon us. We are quickly approaching the halfway mark of the 2025 NFL season. It never ceases to amaze me how fast the season goes once it begins, and more so, how wrong I was in some of my preseason convictions.
Realizing the error of your ways as the season unfolds is essential to successful prop betting. If you are seeing signs that a player you were bullish on entering the year is now struggling, there's no sense in doubling down out of pure stubbornness. That only hurts your wallet. Remember, the key to being a successful handicapper, or fantasy football player, is to focus on getting things right, not being right. It's essential to note this as we approach a part of the season where we need to discard any preseason convictions and focus on what's happening right in front of our eyes. Now that we've got that out of the way, let's get into the good stuff.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite player props and anytime touchdown bets for Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 6 Passing Prop Bets
Matthew Stafford to Throw 3 Passing Touchdowns (+225) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1.13 Units
Stafford is riding a hot streak, having thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two games.
Tutu Atwell 88 YARDS FOR THE RAMS LEAD!
INDvsLAR on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/L9no7EuZtD
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025
That streak has a great chance to continue this weekend as the Rams take on a suddenly limp Baltimore Ravens defense. Baltimore has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league and ranks 26th in FTN Fantasy's defensive passing DVOA.
Three touchdowns is a lot to ask from a quarterback, but the Ravens' secondary has been an absolute mess this year. It's hard to see that unit suddenly turning things around when going against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
I like the plus odds here and will take a chance on Stafford continuing his hot streak this weekend.
Justin Fields UNDER 191.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .45 Units to Win .4 Units
Fields has eclipsed this number in all but one game this year. The one time he did not was when he threw for 27 passing yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Fields did leave that game with a concussion; however, that injury occurred in the fourth quarter of that game. Buffalo's defense just found a way to completely neutralize the Jets' offense.
Fields and the Jets are at risk of another poor performance this weekend as they take on a Denver Broncos defense that is among the best in the NFL. Denver has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and also ranks ninth in PFF's pass rush grade. With the Broncos leading the NFL in sacks, Fields could be under constant pressure from this defense, and that could really limit his opportunities to throw the ball downfield.
I see this as another game where the Jets offense can be easily shut down by one of the league's top defenses, so I will be fading Fields this weekend.
Joe Flacco OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts (-117) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .47 Units to Win .4 Units
Cincinnati traded for Flacco earlier this week. He will take over for the struggling Jake Browning, who threw a ridiculous eight interceptions across four games this year.
The Bengals will now turn things over to Flacco in what seems like a desperate move by everyone in the front office/coaching staff to keep their jobs.
The bad news for Cincinnati? Flacco was not very good for the Browns in 2025.
Among 32 QBs with 100+ dropbacks this year, Joe Flacco ranks:
- 25th in PFF Passing Grade
- 25th in PFF’s adjusted completion %
- 26th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s catchable throw %
- 28th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s turnover worthy throw rate— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) October 7, 2025
Things likely won't get better for Flacco in Cincinnati as he'll still be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
All that aside, the Bengals are 14.5-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. This projects as another game where Cincinnati will be trailing, and that should mean plenty of passing opportunities for Flacco. Since the Bengals just traded for him and immediately named him the starter on short notice, we shouldn't have to worry about Flacco being benched for poor play anytime soon.
Flacco should be throwing early and often and could surpass 40 pass attempts in this game.
Week 6 Rushing Prop Bets
Derrick Henry UNDER 74.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
Fading Henry would normally seem like a bad idea, but the reality is that the Baltimore Ravens are in a bad spot without Lamar Jackson. Cooper Rush could not keep the offense on schedule last week against the Houston Texans, and Henry was a major casualty.
Baltimore's opponent this weekend, the Los Angeles Rams, ranks 10th in defensive rushing DVOA and has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game in the league. They also rank fourth in PFF's rushing defense grade. Throw in the fact that this is another game where Baltimore likely falls behind by double digits early, and we are looking at Henry once again being scripted out of the offense.
This line is too high, given the current state of Baltimore's offense, and feels inflated due to Henry's name value. I expect Baltimore's offense to continue struggling, and I don't believe Henry will eclipse this total.
R.J. Harvey OVER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1 Unit
Harvey took a step back in terms of usage/playing time in Week 5. However, this could be a good spot for the rookie to bounce back against a Jets defense that has underperformed so far in 2025. New York has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this year and ranks 22nd in defensive rushing DVOA.
With the Broncos listed as 7-point favorites in this game, I expect Denver to lean heavily on its ground attack to run away with this game. That should mean Harvey sees usage similar to what he saw in the team's Week 4 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. If we get the right game script, Harvey could approach double-digit carries.
Kyren Williams OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
The Rams are second in PFF's run blocking grade, and Baltimore allows over 146 rushing yards per game. The Ravens' defense looked like a complete mess last week, and I don't see things getting any better in this game on that side of the ball.
With the Rams listed as 7.5-point favorites, I expect them to have their way with this Baltimore defense, and Williams should see plenty of opportunities to surpass this number.
Travis Etienne UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.13 Units to Win 1 Unit
Etienne has played very well so far this year, but I will be fading him in this spot. Jacksonville is coming off one of its biggest victories in years and could be in for a letdown against the Seahawks this weekend.
That aside, Seattle is also very good against the run. The Seahawks rank second in defensive rushing DVOA, sixth in PFF's rushing defense grade, and have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs this year. I expect the Jacksonville offense to sputter in this game, and Seattle to force Trevor Lawrence to beat them with his arm.
Earlier this week, I released this play in the RotoBaller Premium Discord when it was listed at 64.5. It's since been bet down to the current number. However, I am still comfortable wagering a full unit at the current line and would do so down to 60.5.
Chase Brown UNDER 10.5 Yards Longest Rush (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .46 Units to Win .4 Units
The books have finally adjusted to Brown's yardage totals, and I don't see any value chasing the 45.5 number that's out there. However, I want to continue fading Brown, and his longest rush prop feels like the perfect way to play this one.
Green Bay's run defense struggled in its last game against Javonte Williams and the Cowboys in Week 4. Coming out of their bye, I expect Green Bay will have addressed this issue and be ready to stop a Bengals offense that's averaging just 57 rushing yards per game. Despite the poor Week 4 effort, Green Bay still ranks ninth in defensive rushing DVOA and has allowed the third-fewest explosive rushing yards this year per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
That makes this another good spot to continue fading Brown.
Week 6 Receiving Prop Bets
Sam LaPorta Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
LaPorta is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. He posted a 5-92-1 line on 6 targets. This week, though, things could be much more difficult.
While the Chiefs' defense appears to have taken a step backward, it's still been very good at limiting opposing tight ends. Kansas City ranks fourth in DVOA against tight ends and allows an average of 3.6 receptions and 32.8 receiving yards per game to the position. Despite his big game last week, LaPorta also hasn't been used consistently enough in Detroit's offense. Fantasy Points Data Suite has LaPorta's target share checking in at just 18.5%.
There is major shootout potential in this game, but it projects as one where Detroit could attack Kansas City's secondary primarily through Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. I'll be fading LaPorta in this matchup and would play this prop down to 40.5.
Tucker Kraft OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Green Bay faces a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has continued to struggle in 2025. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, but they have had major issues defending tight ends. Cincinnati ranks 24th in DVOA against the position and has allowed the second-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this year.
This feels like another potential blowup spot for Kraft, as Jordan Love should have no trouble finding him throughout this game. I also released this play in the RotoBaller Premium Discord when it opened at 43.5. However, I still think there is plenty of value at this 45.5 number, and I am comfortable playing this line up to 50.5. I'll probably sprinkle on some of Kraft's alternate yardage props, too.
Tetairoa McMillan OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Some fantasy football managers might disagree, but McMillan has gotten off to a strong start in his rookie season. He's been the focal point of Carolina's offense and has a strong first-read target rate of 28.4%. This means the Panthers are making it a priority to get the football in his hands.
That should be great news for his outlook this weekend, as Carolina faces a Cowboys defense that has been one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. Dallas allows a whopping 284.6 passing yards per game and ranks 29th in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
This is a good spot to back McMillan as he is live to crack triple digits for the second time this season. Expect a big game against arguably the worst defense in the league.
Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+130) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3 Units
Smith-Njigba is in the middle of an incredible third-year breakout. He is second in the NFL in receiving yards, and his advanced data is elite. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Smith-Njigba has a 35% targets per route run, a 4.34 yards per route run, and a 42.1% first read target rate.
He's been the focal point of Seattle's passing offense, and he now gets to face a Jacksonville defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA against opposing WR1s. The Jaguars' defense has been very good so far this year, but they could struggle to contain Smith-Njigab, who is one of the best receivers they've faced this year.
Smith-Njigba also has one of the best projected matchups in RotoBaller's Week 6 WR/CB matchup chart, so I like him to find the endzone in this game and will happily take the plus odds here.
Kimani Vidal Anytime TD (+240) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4 Units
With rookie Omarion Hampton heading to injured reserve, Vidal and Hassan Haskins will be the team's top two running backs. This is a good matchup for both players as Los Angeles takes on a Miami Dolphins run defense that has been terrible through five games. Miami ranks 30th in PFF's rushing defense grade and 31st in defensive rushing DVOA.
It's unknown how the Chargers coaching staff will divide touches between these two backs. However, Vidal did receive the team's only carry inside the five-yard line last week, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
This is a fantastic matchup for the Chargers' running backs, and one of these two players is likely to find the endzone. I'll lean into the uncertainty of this backfield and am backing Vidal to find the endzone this weekend.
RJ Harvey Anytime TD (+225) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1.13 Units
Denver will likely be playing with a lead for the majority of this game. That should ensure Harvey gets a few chances to find the endzone. He's also live to break off a long touchdown run or find the endzone as a receiver, similar to what we saw in Week 4.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Patrick Mahomes Most Passing Yards - Sunday Only (+900) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .25 Units to Win 2.25 Units
Jared Goff Most Passing Yards - Sunday Only (+2000) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
Kimani Vidal to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+2200) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .2 Units to Win 4.4 Units
De'Von Achane Most Yards - Sunday Only (+2500) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2.5 Units
Xavier Worthy Most Receiving Yards - Sunday Only (+2700) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2.7 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play calling and thus influence props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 6 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Matthew Stafford to Throw 3 Passing Touchdowns (+190) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Justin Fields UNDER 193.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Joe Flacco OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts (-117) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Derrick Henry UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- R.J. Harvey OVER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kyren Williams OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Travis Etienne UNDER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Chase Brown UNDER 10.5 Yards Longest Rush (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Sam LaPorta Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Tucker Kraft OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Fanatics Sportsbook
- Tetairoa McMillan OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+130) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Kimani Vidal Anytime TD (+240) DraftKings Sportsbook
- R.J. Harvey Anytime TD (+225) Bet365 Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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