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Jackson Sparks identifies NFL players at the quarterback position that broke out for fantasy football managers in 2022 and looks at their fantasy prospects in 2023.
The late-round quarterback strategy in fantasy drafts has become less popular as elite fantasy studs like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have provided a real advantage at signal-caller for fantasy managers, but in 2022, several top-10 scoring quarterbacks were drafted well outside the QB1 range.
While players like Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Trey Lance, and Matthew Stafford were landmines in drafts, other unexpected signal-callers stepped up. Passing touchdown figures can be fluid year-to-year, so not all of these players can be expected to replicate their 2022 numbers. Regardless, they were great values in preseason drafts and deserve recognition as true breakout players.
With all that said, let's dive into the top breakout quarterbacks of 2022!
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Biggest Quarterback Breakouts of 2022
Note: Listed ADPs are from National Fantasy Championship from Aug. 8 to Sept 8, 2022
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles - ADP: QB5; 2022 Rank: QB3
While Hurts was expected to be a top-scoring quarterback this season thanks to his rushing upside and the addition of A.J. Brown, he broke out and exceeded his high expectations. He finished as the QB3 on the season in overall fantasy points, but No. 1 overall in fantasy points per game (26.8). Unfortunately, he missed the semifinal and championship rounds of most fantasy football leagues, but he was a big reason teams got to the playoff in the first place.
Hurts threw for 3,701 yards and 26 touchdowns with just six interceptions, but his real edge came in the rushing game. On 165 carries, he racked up 760 yards and 13 touchdowns. His 13 scores on the ground place him second all-time in rushing touchdowns for a QB in a single season. Again, he was a QB1 last season and was expected to take a leap, but he became a truly elite fantasy quarterback and is in the thick of the conversation with Allen and Mahomes as the top dynasty fantasy QB.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears - ADP: QB18; 2022 Rank: QB5
Fields was an intriguing fantasy option the moment he was drafted in 2021, but after a lackluster first season and a disastrous start to his second season, it looked like he'd never reach his fantasy ceiling. From Week 1 to Week 4, Fields scored outside the top 24 quarterbacks, with a high of just 14.6 fantasy points in Week 1. In Week 5, he showed some promise, scoring 17 fantasy points to finish as the QB13. After that, his ceiling was on full display.
From Weeks 6 to 15, Fields posted performances of 19.4, 24.4, 26.0, 42.7. 40.4, 23.6, 21.3, and 23.6 fantasy points. During that 806 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Fields final numbers were 2,242 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 1,143 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns. At his best, he was the most dominant quarterback in fantasy football and is a classic example of a nuclear breakout. He became just the third quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in a season, joining Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick. That's pretty elite company, don't you think?
Hopefully, Chicago will add more high-end pass-catchers and offensive linemen so he can unlock his passing upside, but for fantasy purposes, his rushing upside is enough to produce another high-end QB1 season.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks - ADP: QB60; 2022 Rank: QB6
Since Drew Lock was shipped to Seattle in the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade, most fantasy managers assumed he'd be the starter for the Seahawks in 2022. Even when Geno Smith was announced as the starter, everyone had their doubts since he hasn't been a full-time starter since 2014. Anyone who follows the NFL knows how Smith's 2022 campaign finished and he was one of the top breakout quarterbacks in fantasy football.
Smith led the league with a 69.8 completion percentage, passing for 4,282 yards (franchise record), 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Smith was easily the best value at his ADP since he was drafted behind several backups and became a true must-start player, even in single-QB leagues. The fantasy community as a whole probably should've been more optimistic about his fantasy ceiling since his top receivers were DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but almost no one expected a QB1 season, much less a top-six season among signal-callers.
Smith is a free agent this offseason, but Seattle is expected to bring him back based on the latest reports. Although he was spectacular in 2022, it's important to monitor his 2023 ADP, as there could be some regression coming. If his touchdowns see a dip and an aging Lockett regresses at all, he could come back down to earth as a high-end QB2 rather than a bonafide QB1. Either way, he's obviously worth rostering in leagues of all shapes and sizes.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants - ADP: QB21; 2022 Rank: QB7
Jones carried the "bust" label in 2022, but under new head coach Brian Daboll, he saw his best season as a pro and in fantasy football. While he only threw for 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns, he rushed for 708 yards and seven touchdowns. He also eliminated his well-documented turnover woes, throwing just five interceptions and losing only three fumbles.
He's been an underrated rusher for his entire career, but Daboll used more designed quarterback runs as he set a career-high with 120 rushing attempts (65 rushes previous high). His 708 yards on the ground placed him only behind Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. Those four are considered elite rushers and scramblers, but Jones was right there with him. Those who waited a while to pick a quarterback or chose Jones as a mere backup were rewarded with plenty of upside. In the fantasy championship round (Week 17), Jones passed for 177 yards, rushed for 91 yards, and scored four total touchdowns as the QB2 on the week.
Jones' fifth-year option was declined, so he could hit the open market in free agency this offseason. That said, his landing spot could dictate his fantasy value if he's not back in New York in 2023.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars ADP: QB17; 2022 Rank: QB8
Lawrence went from a five-star recruit to a freshman National Championship quarterback to a No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, so his expectations were sky-high in the NFL and fantasy football. After a rocky first five weeks, Lawrence settled in and became the high-ceiling quarterback almost everyone thought he could be. On the year, he completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He also added 291 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Those stats yielded nine QB1 performances in his sophomore season as he got more and more comfortable in Doug Pederson's scheme. He elevated Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram far above expectations and is now truly viewed as a bonafide franchise quarterback for years to come.
Next season, Calvin Ridley will join the passing attack, but the Jaguars might not be done there. There's plenty of room for growth on the offensive line and other pass-catching positions, so Lawrence's ceiling in year three should be even higher. He's not a prolific or dominant rusher, but he does just enough on the ground to be a consistent mid-range QB1 throughout his promising career.
Honorable Mentions
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions - ADP: QB23; 2022 Rank: QB11
While Goff was impressive and finished as a QB1, he's merely an honorable mention since he's had a few comparable years during his time as a Los Angeles Ram. Goff should remain the Lions' starter in 2023 and they'll bring back plenty of offensive fire-power, so he should be in line for another big year.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins - ADP: QB16; 2022 Rank: QB15
Tagovailoa famously had a 469 passing yard, six-touchdown performance in Week 4, but head injuries cost him three games and knocked him out of another, so he finished just one spot ahead of ADP. If he's OK health-wise, expect another solid season from him throwing passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
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