Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 17

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 17, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

This week we're taking a trip to the bay area to take a look at two arms out of Oakland, who will be vying for staff ace with Frankie Montas headed to New York. We'll take a peek at All-Star Paul Blackburn who is rebounding from an incredibly rough stretch, and unheralded righty James Kaprielian, who is on a month-long hot streak.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 8/1/22.

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James Kaprielian, Oakland Athletics – 6% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 74 IP, 4.74 ERA, 5.62 FIP, 5.1% K-BB%

07/29 @ CWS: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

July was kind to James Kaprielian, who posted a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings over five starts during the month. He lowered his season-long ERA from 5.88 on June 30 to 4.50 on July 31, bringing him much closer to the numbers we thought he could be capable of coming into the 2022 season. Now, with the trade deadline looming and the Athletics’ roster potentially being gutted even further, Kaprielian is one player we expect to stay put and contribute in Oakland. Can he make the most of the final two months on a losing club, or will July prove to be an aberration in an otherwise forgettable season?

A former UCLA Bruin, Kaprielian was one of the top college arms in the 2015 draft. He was taken in the fifth round by the Yankees and was expected to be a frontline starter one day. Injuries have derailed Kaprielian’s trajectory, however, as the right-hander didn’t throw a pitch in a professional game in 2017 or 2018 due to Tommy John surgery. He was sent to Oakland in the Sonny Gray swap, and by default has been Oakland’s best piece in the return package. Known for his power fastball and sweeping slider, Kaprielian hasn’t thrown as hard post-TJ surgery but can still hand in the low- to mid-90s.

Altogether, Kaprielian works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. He has thrown a sinker in the past but has only tossed 20 sinkers this season, and it no longer appears to be an important part of his repertoire. During this hot streak, Kaprielian’s pitch sequencing – at least if you’re following Pitch F/x – has been all over the place.

In some games he’s using his curveball over 20% of the time, others he isn’t using it at all but is leaning on his slider over 30% of the time, including in this game against the White Sox where he threw a slider 41.2% of the time. The reality appears to be a revamped slider for Kaprielian, who looks to be throwing more of a slider-curve hybrid than his traditional slider, and the pitch-tracking systems can’t quite figure out how to categorize it yet.

During July Kaprielian threw his fastball at 93.9 MPH, which is a tick above his season average, but curiously, his slider velocity was only 83.8 MPH while his slider velocity coming into July was a cool 86.6 MPH. What gives? What’s also strange is his changes in slider spin rate during this time. Below is a graph demonstrating Kaprielian’s game-by-game slider spin rate.

It seems like he had a big spike in this most recent start, but it looked pretty stable leading up to this game. Things become a little clearer when we compare it to his start-by-start curveball spin rate.

There's a big spike at the end again, but it seems to dip a bit in the start leading up to this one. This writer’s theory is that Kaprielian has tweaked his slider into more of a slurve, and sliders have been getting categorized as curveballs, thus lowering his curve spin rate for those starts, only normalizing in his most recent start, creating a hockey stick trajectory on this graph.

These are just numbers and lines and data registered by a Trackman. How does the slider now compare to earlier this season? Let’s have a look-see below.

Here’s one from a start on May 24 (in the prettiest uniforms in baseball, no less).

Though poorly executed, that’s a textbook slider, sweeping inside to an opposite-handed hitter. Now, let’s have a look at one from this most recent start.

It’s a little loopier than the slider from May and appears to have more vertical movement. Speaking of vert, Kaprielian’s slider has gained vertical movement throughout the season, as shown in the graph below (a lower number means more drop).

So, there’s some decent evidence Kaprielian has shifted towards a slurve over his traditional slider. This coincides with a performance improvement, so surely this must be the reason, no? Batters have hit just .167 with a .292 SLG off his slider in July, but they were already hitting .209 with a .358 SLG off his slider heading into July. Kaprielian may have changed his slider, but his slider was never the problem. The problem has been, and remains, his fastball.

On June 30 opposing batters were absolutely clobbering Kaprielian’s fastball for a .272 AVG and stomach-churning .526 SLG. His fastball may have decent velocity at around 94 MPH, but its spin rate has been in the ninth percentile in MLB this season, at a mere 2020 RPM on average.

Kaprielian has been homer-prone during his short major league career despite pitching in Oakland, and his fastball has been a large reason for his struggles with the longball. Things got a little better for him in July as opponents hit just .209 off his fastball last month, but he seems to have coasted off a .200 BABIP to achieve these results and still surrendered a .419 SLG during this hot streak.

In fact, when broken down further, the entire hot streak is quite suspicious. Kaprielian still had a 5.16 xFIP during July and was thriving off the good fortune of a 5.1% HR/FB rate, 87.8% LOB rate, and .200 BABIP. Worst of all, his K/BB ratio was a pitiful 1.7 in July, and his strikeout rate looks like something from the 1980s at a horrendously low 5.46 K/9.

This sort of leaves us in a weird spot because he looks to be throwing a new variation of a pitch, which coincides with improved performance, yet the tweaked slider doesn’t appear to be the reason for success, and the success doesn’t seem legitimate. What we have here, sadly, appears to be a false alarm. Kaprielan won’t make serious progress unless he can make tangible changes to his four-seamer, or find a new approach that relies less on his heat. Perhaps a cutter could be in his future? Until then, Kaprielian is streaming fodder, useful only in soft matchups.

Verdict:

Kaprielian appears to have made a legitimate change in his slider, using more of a slurve instead of his traditional slider. This change has coincided with a hot month of July, but Kaprielian’s success has been driven more by luck than actual skill improvements. A bad fastball has held him back throughout his MLB career and will continue to do so, as Kaprielian surrenders an exorbitant amount of power given his home ballpark and division thanks in large part to a hittable, low-spin heater. If you’re in a pinch and need a streamer, you could do worse than James Kaprielian. But you could likely do a lot better, too.

Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics – 41% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 101.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 12.4% K-BB%

07/30 @ CWS: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Fresh off a ten-run shellacking at the hands of the Texas Rangers, Saturday was a welcome reprieve for Blackburn, who’s coming off a rough month leading up to this most recent start. Blackburn had a 9.46 ERA over his last six starts before this one, and that includes a scoreless 6.1-inning outing. Blackburn sort of faked us out already, as he had a 2.26 ERA on June 16 and was looking like one of the breakout stars of 2022. He still made the All-Star game, but Blackburn’s fantasy stock has been in freefall for just over a month. Was Saturday a sign of things to come, or will his managers get Blackburn-ed?

2022 is the first time many people heard the name Paul Blackburn, but for the uber-nerds out there, Blackburn’s name has been in the baseball consciousness for quite some time. He was a first-round pick by the Cubs back in 2012, though he was never much of a prospect and was traded twice for illustrious names such as Mike Montgomery and Danny Valencia. He’s pitched in the majors in every season since 2017, though he’s already doubled his previous career-high in games started and is on pace to more than double his career innings pitched.

Part of the reason Blackburn didn’t have much prospect pedigree is his pitching style. Blackburn doesn’t strike many people out and doesn’t throw all that hard. He’s increased his velocity a bit this season but is still sitting at just 91.7 MPH, below average for a right-hander. He also throws a sinker as his primary fastball but has incorporated a four-seamer this season.

Along with the fastballs, Blackburn throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider was a new addition for him coming into the year, but he’s only thrown it 4.2% of the time thus far.  His changeup has been a mainstay for him, but the real key to his success in 2022 has been the curveball.

Opposing batters have been stupefied by Blackburn’s curve this season, hitting a meager .151 off the pitch with a .260 SLG and .196 wOBA. Blackburn has been a soft contact king with this pitch, allowing just an 87.1 MPH average exit velocity and a 17.8% line drive rate. The whiffs have been there too, even if his overall strikeout rate doesn’t show it, with a 14.5% swinging strike rate and a 38.6% chase rate against his curveball this year.

What makes the pitch so special? Two things: drop and spin. Blackburn’s curveball has averaged 2607 RPM this season, putting him in the 69^th percentile of curveball spin in the major leagues. If that wasn’t nice enough, Blackburn also gets 6.8 inches of drop on his curve above league average, which isn’t quite 6.9, but quite impressive nonetheless. When it comes to the mystery of Paul Blackburn’s breakout, look no further than his curveball.

If the curveball has been so good, why has Blackburn been so bad over the last five weeks? Well, for starters his curveball has been hammered over his last seven starts to the tune of a .360 AVG and .680 SLG. What’s strange is that nothing seems to have changed. His movement and release are about the same, even the location on his curveball hasn’t moved much (see below).

Opening Day-June 21

June 22-Now

It seems like a case of good luck turning rotten, as Blackburn’s curveball BABIP ballooned from .296 on June 21 to .467 over his last seven starts. A .467 BABIP is impossibly bad, and even the worst MLB pitchers would expect better outcomes than that. Even if Blackburn’s fortunes turn on his curveball, his fastballs are still suspect if he’s going to be experiencing adverse or even standard outcomes.

Blackburn enjoyed a .226 BABIP against his four-seam fastball and a .268 BABIP overall between opening day and June 21. He also coasted off an 81.8% LOB rate and 5.4% HR/FB ratio over that time. We knew those numbers couldn’t hold, but just how bad the regression has been is staggering. He’s better than a 9.46 ERA, but this shouldn’t be too surprising for anyone familiar with Blackburn or in deep on his numbers. Pretty much every pitch Blackburn throws, sans curveball, gets obliterated by opposing hitters.

Before 2022, he had a career ERA of 5.74 and a career FIP of 4.70, along with a pitiful 5.02 K/9. Blackburn has a nice curveball and can induce a groundball or two, but when it comes down to it, he’s just not all that good and has never been all that good. Making matters worse in this writer’s eyes, Blackburn only used his curveball 4.2% of the time in his most recent start. Sure, the results were good, but the approach is highly suspect. If you’ve held onto Paul Blackburn, you should’ve traded him a month ago. If you still have him, try and see what you can get.

Verdict:

Who is the real Paul Blackburn? Not the guy we saw for the first two months of the season. Not the All-Star. The real Paul Blackburn relies too much on BABIP fortune and one good pitch to try and disguise the fact that his arsenal is lacking. I would expect better than the 9.46 ERA he’s given us over his last seven starts, but that ERA will be much closer to five than most fantasy players can stomach. If you’re still holding the bag, try and get out, or at least limit exposure to soft matchups.

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