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Are Kenny Pickett and Derek Carr bad quarterbacks for the victims of bad coaching? Are their shortcomings hurting the offense around them? Gladys Tyler takes a look.
'Tis the season of bad Santa, so why not bad quarterbacks? Not because we drafted the quarterbacks on our fantasy teams but because we drafted their weapons. These quarterbacks are dashing our fantasy hopes with their play.
The legitimate question is whether it is the quarterback play or the offensive play caller.
Carr has the additional "excuse" of a new weapon added to a new offense. Pickett lost a piece of his offense with Chase Claypool being traded to Chicago, but hey, Matt Canada is still there. So, are there really bad quarterbacks or just bad systems?
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Is Kenny Pickett Bad Quarterback?
Is Pickett a bad quarterback? Pittsburgh Steelers nation would have you believe that Pickett is "the man" and the offensive woes result from the ineptness of offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
Who is to blame, and does it matter for our fantasy football fortunes?
Matt Canada's Schemes
The Steelers' second-half offense against Miami:
Canada's offense relies on passes to the sideline, leaving little room for players to accumulate yards after that catch. Playing to get in third-down and manageable yards lowers the ability of receivers to make explosive plays.
In the Miami game, the Steelers were 4-for-14 on third downs. Pickett averaged 5.8 yards per attempt.
Pickett's current stats:
| PACE OF PLAY | GAME SCRIPT | PASS ATTEMPTS | DEEP BALL ATTEMPTS | RED ZONE ATTEMPTS | AIR YARDS | INTERCEPTABLE PASSES |
| 1.81 | -6.61 | 165 | 15 | 21 | 1163 | 21 |
| 31ST | 31ST | 25TH | 29TH | 25TH | 32ND | 1ST |
Stats from playerprofiler.com
The question is Pickett a victim of Canada's offense or a bust that is killing our fantasy options in Pittsburgh?
The Pickett-to-Pickens connection is a thing. Pickens' snap share has steadily increased in the last three games. He has been on the field for 84.7%, 81.2%, and 89.9% of the offensive snaps. In those games, he was targeted only six times (twice), and in the last game, three times. Pickens was targeted once in the red zone in each of the three games.
His fantasy scores were 5.8, 18.1, and 0.0. Pickens' target share has been 15.5%, and his target rate is 16.6%, neither in the top 55 for fantasy football. (Claypool's 15.7% target share will be reallocated). That's valid. Both Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson are waiting around for the Pickett magic.
The Others
Freiermuth is like Teflon. Bad offensive play calling and mediocre quarterback play do not affect him. He is currently TE9. He is on the field for a 73.3% snap share and has an 18.7% target share and a 26.1% target rate.
Against Miami, he ran 33 routes with nine targets. He finished with 15.5 fantasy points after gobbling up 75 yards on eight receptions.
Johnson is currently WR34. Clearly (or is it) the WR1 in Pittsburgh, Johnson is on the field for 91.9% snap share. He has a 26.8% target share and a 26.1% target rate, yet he is averaging 10.6 fantasy points per game.
Comparison Pickett v Ben Roethlisberger
I get it. Roethlisberger was a veteran, and Pickett is a rookie. But Roethlisberger was a veteran "with diminished arm strength" in his last season. Pickett is a first-round draft choice. Canada is the common denominator.
Johnson last season was on the field for 91% of the offensive snaps. He had a 28.5% target share and a 28.5% target rate. He also averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game.
Pickett Fantasy Killer
The Steelers, not surprisingly, pass the ball 62.45% of the time (not surprising because they are playing in a negative game script). They are averaging 36.9 passing attempts per game but only completing 24 passes on average. They are 32nd in yards per attempt (6.0) and 32nd in points per game (15.0).
Don't expect a turnaround after this bye week. Whether Pickett is good or bad or whether it is Canada's offensive schemes are currently irrelevant. Kind of like our fantasy hopes for Pickens and Johnson.
Is Derek Carr Bad Quarterback?
There have been persistent whispers that Carr isn't a great quarterback. This season, our fantasy concerns were not with Carr but with his college buddy and new shiny acquisition, Davante Adams.
Davante Adams
Adams was most likely your first wide receiver off the board for a good reason. He finished as WR1 and WR2 in full PPR leagues in the last two seasons. But, of course, that was with a different quarterback.
Adams with Aaron Rodgers 2021
| Targets | Target Share | Target Rate | Snap Share | aDOT | Deep Targets | Red Zone Targets | Receiving Yards | Yards After Catch | Total Touchdowns |
| 10.6/game | 31.6% (25.9% red zone) | 35.3% | 80.3% | 9.0 | 1.4/game | 28 | 97.1/game | 3.4/target | 11 |
Stats from playerprofiler.com
Adams with Carr 2022
| Targets | Target Share | Target Rate | Snap Share | aDOT | Deep Targets | Red Zone Targets | Receiving Yards | Yards After Catch | Total Touchdowns |
| 9.7/game | 28.9% (37.1% red zone) | 27.2% | 94.1% | 11.8 | 1.9/game | 13 | 73.1/game | 2.4/target | 5 |
Adams is averaging 24 fewer receiving yards while only averaging .9 fewer targets per game. His average distance of the target is higher, and his snap share is considerably higher. Adams is getting one less yard after the catch, but his average distance of the target is 2.8 yards higher.
Last week against the New Orleans Saints, the Raiders' offense did not cross the 50-yard line until late in the fourth quarter. Carr attempted 26 passes and averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards per attempt.
Week8 was most likely an outlier rather than a trend. Adams was playing with a flu-like illness, and Josh McDaniels was out-coached by Dennis Allen. Well, at least half of that is an outlier. Adams will not be sick every week.
Carr has not had over 26 passing completions for the season in a game. That includes Week3, where he had 44 passing attempts. In a season where he is attempting 33.9 passes per game, he has a 21.9% deep ball completion percentage, 38.9% red zone completion percentage, and 50.0% deep ball catchable pass rate.
No one is asking him to be Rodgers. However, last season with Adams, Rodgers had a 39.1% deep ball completion percentage and a 58.6% red zone completion percentage. We are just asking Carr to make Adams viable again.
The Others
Both Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have missed games because of injuries. It is too early to make a definitive decision on Carr's impact. It is worth noting that Renfrow is currently WR88. Last season Renfrow averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game. He is currently averaging 6.5. Waller is TE26, and his fantasy points per game have dropped from 12.1 to 7.9.
The Raiders are not winning, and Carr's production is hurting our fantasy standouts.
Carr Fantasy Killer
The adjustment period is a fact. A new head coach (it would be remiss to exclude the fact that last season Rich Bisaccia took over a tumultuous Raiders team that had lost two games in a row and led them to the playoffs), a new offensive system, and a new wide receiver will account for some of the lower statistics. Unfortunately, Carr's adjustment is ruining our fantasy hopes and dreams. At the very least, he is lowering our expectations. You aren't sitting Adams because, on any Sunday, he can overcome bad quarterback play.
But can he overcome Josh McDaniels?
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