We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at Miami Dolphins wide receiver Albert Wilson.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
Let's see why Wilson could fit that bill in upcoming fantasy drafts.
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2018 Sleeper - Albert Wilson
With Jarvis Landry now in Cleveland, the Miami Dolphins have a ton of targets available and a new wide receiver in town who was Kansas City's number two wideout in 2017.
In 2017, Jarvis Landry led the NFL in receptions with 112 on 161 targets. He's averaged 152.7 targets per season over the past three years, so even if we play it conservatively, there are around 150 targets available this season in Miami with four wide receivers looking to benefit: DaVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, and Albert Wilson. Can Wilson capitalize and post fantasy relevant numbers this season?
Playing the Slots
Wilson's case comes down to what you think about the other receivers on the roster. Parker is an outside receiver on a team that has thrown primarily to the slot receiver for the past few seasons, but it's unclear if that's a feature of this Dolphins offense or just a result of the team having a receiver of Jarvis Landry's caliber at the position. Parker was targeted 96 times in 13 games last season; extrapolating that out to 16 games gives him 118 targets, which seems about what I'd expect to see this season. Meanwhile, Stills already saw 105 targets last season. Even if he gets some of Landry's, there will be a ton left to go around.
If it comes down to Amendola and Wilson as the main beneficiaries, I'm willing to bet on Wilson, who is seven years younger than Amendola and should be able to do more with the ball once it's in his hands. Wilson runs a 4.43 40 and ranked among the top 20 wide receivers last season in the following metrics: catch rate (19th), contested catch rate (fourth), and quarterback rating when targeted (eighth). He was 23rd at his position in fantasy points per target. When Wilson was given a chance to be the team's top receiver for the Chiefs in Week 17 last season, he responded by catching 10 of 11 targets for 147 yards.
Let's take a quick look at some video from that game:
Here's a brief rundown of my thoughts on each play:
- 0:00-0:10 - Patrick Mahomes is under pressure and is forced to throw a dangerous ball to the middle of the field. He hits Wilson right in the numbers, but the defender is all over him. He's still able to make the difficult catch.
- 0:11-0:20 - Mahomes under pressure again. Throws it over the top to Wilson, who has two defenders on him. A good catch by Wilson, though it's aided by some great ball placement by Mahomes.
- 0:34-0:46 - Wilson is wide open on this one. Good catch, though the circumstances don't tell us a lot.
- 0:47-0:55 - A quick pass to Wilson, who turns upfield and gets the ball closer to the first down marker. He does a good job eluding the first defender, but can't get away from the second one. Still, a productive play by the receiver.
- 0:57-1:09 - Wilson has a couple of defenders on him near the line of scrimmage on this one, but he's able to use his footwork to get past them. He comes back to the ball to make the catch. Some good moves once he has the ball.
- 1:13-1:20 - The screen to Wilson, who gets about five yards. Wilson doesn't gain many yards, but it is a positive play.
- 1:28-1:40 - Another screen. Wilson turns it into a first down. A good display of his foot speed here.
- 1:41-1:50 - Wilson gets the ball on another screen on a second and long play. He isn't able to get the 17 yards that Kansas City needs for the first down, but this is a great display of what Wilson can do on a football field. He makes some players miss and once again shows that he can be dangerous when he has some room to run.
- 1:54-2:25 - Wilson comes from the slot, makes a good pivot just past the line of scrimmage to get some space on the left side of the field, and is able to get the first down and get out of bounds to stop the clock.
- 2:06-2:16- Basically the same play as the one before, but on the right side of the field. Good footwork to create separation, which allows him to turn upfield and eventually get out of bounds again.
Wilson shows a lot of good attributes in the plays above. He's a receiver who is able to create space with his cuts, has the speed to make things happen on screen plays, and shows that he can make tough catches sometimes. Though Wilson has never finished as a top 50 fantasy wide receiver, the situation in Miami feels open for him to break through. He should be available at the end of every draft, so taking a chance on Wilson and hoping he can be your fourth or fifth receiver over the course of the year isn't a terrible bet, especially for a guy whose efficiency and physical profile suggest he can be a very good option out of the slot.
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