RADIO
The Called Shot, The Billy Goat & The 27 Year Old
Throughout its long history, the game of baseball has been surrounded by legends and folklore. Many of us are familiar with Babe Ruth’s called shot, where he pointed to the centerfield bleachers and hit a home run to that very same spot on the next pitch he saw. Numerous “North Sider” Chicago fans are convinced that the Cubbies haven’t won a World Series since 1908 due to the “Curse of the Billy Goat”. Many fantasy baseball owners subscribe to a legend that often influences their draft strategy. The legend I am referring to is the one behind the breakout potential of the 27-year-old baseball player.
It may sound crazy but it seems that many major leaguers have this “magical” knack of reaching their prime in their 27th year. Need some recent examples? Michael Brantley turned 27 on May 15th of 2014 and proceeded to have the year of his life, winning the Silver Slugger award and registering career bests with his .327 batting average, 20 HR, 94 R, 97 RBI and 23 stolen bases. Charlie Blackmon turned 27 on July 1st of last season and put himself on the fantasy baseball map with a .288 batting average, 19 HR and 28 stolen base performance.
Seeking out 27 year old fantasy baseball players in anticipation of finding "the one" who will have their breakout year isn’t easy and doesn’t always yield results but it’s a draft strategy that you should be familiar with. The following are age 27 hitters who may be primed for a breakout season. The only criteria required for them to be considered is that they must be 27-years-old at the beginning of the season, or turn 27 at some point during the season.
Is Age Just A Number in Fantasy Baseball?
Brandon Belt (1B, SF)
Many fantasy baseball owners were looking for Brandon Belt to take his game to the next level in 2014 after he hit 17 home runs and batted .289 in 509 at bats in 2013. He got off to a great start, but injuries got the best of him and he appeared in just 61 games. Although his strikeout rate spiked a bit and his walk rate dipped, he did register an extremely high HR/FB rate of 18.2%, the highest of his career. He is enjoying a solid spring and if he stays healthy and learns to work around the defensive shift that opposing teams have been using against him, a season of .270, 20 HR and 75 RBI is possible. He also has surprising base stealing abilities for a 6’5” 220 pounder and five to 10 stolen bases are not out of the question. With an average ADP of 191, Belt could be a draft day bargain.
Wilson Ramos (C, WAS)
One of these seasons, and why not the one in which he’ll spend five months as a 27 year old, Wilson Ramos is going to put it all together and enjoy a breakout campaign. Injuries have limited Ramos to the point that he has not been able to play in more than 113 games in his major league career. In order to avoid having to deal with chronic hamstring issues as he has in the past, Ramos’ offseason workouts included exercises designed to increase his flexibility. His 16.1 lifetime K% is much better than what you would expect for a power hitter and his .269 major league lifetime batting average shows that he is no slouch at the plate. If he can reach his goal of playing in 120 to 130 games, he has the potential to hit at least 20 home runs. With an ADP of 221, he is a sleeper and could provide a lot of fantasy value from the catcher's position.
Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE)
Jason Kipnis graced the cover of many fantasy baseball magazines and was ranked as one of the best second baseman in all of baseball at the start of the 2014 preseason. Unfortunately, 2014 was a terrible season for him. Kipnis’ offensive numbers were rancid and his .240 batting average, 6 HR, and 41 RBI fell well beyond expectations. Kipnis’ batting average against lefties dropped by .100 points and his fly balls were not traveling as far as they once did but there is good news on the horizon. Jason Kipnis is 27 years old and that sometimes cures all ills. Kipnis was dealing with a strained right oblique muscle for most of last season which affected his swing and contributed to his woeful 2014 offensive performance. He was also forced to miss time due to a hamstring injury. Kipnis blamed last season’s propensity for injuries on a workout regimen that made him stronger but at the same time made him too bulky and less agile. He changed his offseason workout routine and is 10 pounds lighter than last season. Although he had some issues with a cranky back this spring, his fielding range and ability to drive the ball looks like it is back to its 2013 all-star season form. He is hitting the ball with authority to the opposite field and pulling the ball with power. This season Kipnis may put up the numbers everyone was expecting last season but you may be able to own shares in him at a deep discount.
Jay Bruce (OF, CIN)
After hitting at least 20 home runs in his first six seasons in the majors, Jay Bruce endured a season long slump in which he hit just 18 home runs and drove in 66 RBI. Those numbers are unacceptable for a power hitting outfielder who plays half his games in a hitter’s park, but could be the result of a nagging knee injury that bothered him all last season. His ailing knee might have prevented him from generating power from his lower body and could explain last year’s decrease in his average fly ball rate distance. His .269 BABIP shows that he may be in line for a modest rebound from his 2014 batting average of .217, but he will need to reverse the trend of his falling walk and rising strikeout rates. Bolstered by the fact that he is 27-years-old this season as well as his natural given talent, I expect him to record a batting average closer to his lifetime .251 mark, hit close to 25 home runs and drive in upwards of 85 to 90 RBI.
Kole Calhoun (OF LAA)
Injuries limited Kole Calhoun to 127 games last season and although his offensive performance was a bit streaky, he ended the season with a .272 batting average, 17 HR, and 90 runs scored. Calhoun still has upside, still being quite young at only 27 years of age. His above average line drive percentage and HR/FB rate suggest that he has a chance to improve upon his 2014 offensive output. Calhoun did produce a 22 HR/20 SB season while in the minors and as the Angels’ leadoff hitter, 20 home runs, 100 runs scored, and 15 steals are possible. With an ADP of just over 100, a healthy Calhoun can produce value on draft day and be a major contributor to your fantasy baseball team.
