March 2, 2018

Kent Shen discusses recalls at post All-Star breakouts in past seasons, and looks at young NBA players poised to break out in the second half of this season.

We're entering the home stretch of the season as all-star weekend just wrapped up in Los Angeles last week. At this point in the season, teams know where they stand in the NBA hierarchy, and one of the most exciting things about this part of the season is seeing what young guys can do when given minutes on tanking teams.

When teams have nothing left to play for, it's in their interests to give their young guys some playing time to see what they can do, and while some flame out in this opportunity, we get treated to occasional flashes of stellar play, and if we're lucky, the birth of a star.

Many breakouts follow similar patterns and we can learn something from taking a look at some past ones and seeing how they apply to today's group of promising young players.

Air Gordon Takes Flight

Player: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic (2015-2016)

Trend: The delayed breakout

Aaron Gordon's post all-star breakout in 2016 was a ton of fun to watch. AG, the 4th overall pick in 2014, came into the league a raw, extremely athletic tweener with a broken shot and didn't see tons of playing time in the first 1 and a half seasons of his career. With the Magic going nowhere in the midst of their seemingly perpetual rebuild, they unleashed Air Gordon and upped his minutes from 21.8 to 27.9.

What followed was a fascinating tease of the athleticism that made Gordon such a high draft pick, as the 2nd year forward upped his numbers across the board and became one of the best waiver wire pickups that season, putting up averages of 12.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals. 0.6 blocks and 0.7 3s on .483 from the field. This was a nice little glimpse before Air Gordon entered the mainstream the next season, showing off his athleticism in a dunk contest duel for the ages.

Today's comparison: Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers 

It's tough being a second overall pick under the bright lights in LA, but Ingram's rookie season was pretty brutal no matter how you look at it. This year has been a totally different story however, and Ingram's breakout is already in full effect. Over the last month, Ingram has been sitting in the top 40 with averages of 18.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.1 3s, 0.6 steals and 1.0 blocks on .538/.786 splits.

The Lakers are in full tank mode now, and have given Ingram free reign over the offense with Lonzo Ball out for the last while, and the 2nd year player has responded by displaying excellent ball-handling skills playing as the point guard. He's already made people who wrote him off early look silly, and looks like he still has plenty of room to grow even more.

You Wanted The D?

Player: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (2014-2015), Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat (2014-2015)

Trend: Elite defensive impact out of nowhere

Both these guys seemingly came out of nowhere in the second half of the 2014-2015 season and became league swinging waiver wire pickups on the back of elite defensive production. Gobert took the starting job in Utah and put up some insane numbers after the all-star break, averaging 11.1 points, 13.4 boards, 1.0 steals and 2.6 blocks. This ended up being the norm, as Gobert has emerged into an all-star level center and a perennial defensive player of the year candidate since.

Saying Whiteside came out of left field is an understatement. A second round pick who flamed out of the NBA early, he got a chance to start for the heat following some injuries and all of a sudden started to put up insane fantasy numbers, averaging 13.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 0.6 steals and 2.9 blocks after the all-star break as his minutes ramped up from 20 to 28.

Both these guys completely warped fantasy leagues for teams who were able to get them off waivers, and it'll be hard pressed to find another season in which TWO guys came out of nowhere to post top 40 type production down the stretch off the waiver wire.

Today's comparisons: Jakob Poetl, Toronto Raptors, Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn Nets

These guys don't come close to the outlier production Gobert and Whiteside put up in 2015, but their fantasy games are build in a similar mold and they both look to be contributors down the stretch. Poetl has more in common with the two guys than Allen, as he's a defense first center with 2+ block per game upside given enough minutes. Advanced metrics love the young Raptors game and he looks to be the center of the future for the team when they inevitably part ways with Jonas Valanciunas.

Allen won't post stratospheric block numbers like Gobert or Whiteside, but his per 36 defensive numbers have still been a highly respectable 0.8 steals and 1.8 blocks and he is a very strong rebounder as well. The difference with Allen is he not only provides the uber efficient field goal percentage these other Centers provide, but he's a respectable free throw shooter as well, with FG/FT splits of 59/78 on the season. This skillset almost plays like an Enes Kanter with defense, which already sounds like a highly valuable fantasy guy, and the fact that he has projectable shooting skills means that it wouldn't surprise me if he were to add a 3-point shot down the line, something that is much harder to project on the other guys in this section.

Screw The Efficiency, We Have Counting Stats

Player: Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers (2013-2014)

Trend: Great counting stats, with piss poor efficiency

Ahh, the early days of The Process. Before Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons put a face on former GM Sam Hinkie's master plan and showed the mainstream The Process was a success, only the true believers stuck around to watch guys like MCW get infinite minutes and the greenest of lights to accumulate counting stats. MCW's rookie season was pretty much a bad team giving a highly inefficient player the ball and letting him do whatever he wanted with zero consequences, and it produced what will be remembered as one of the oddest Rookie Of The Year awards  in NBA history.

Carter-Williams posted a line of 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists along with 1.9 steals on the season, on putrid percentages - 41% from the field and 70% from the line. This culminated in a season that was highly valuable for punt FG% or punt FT% teams, especially the latter, where that production was good for top-40 value on the year.

Today's comparisons: Josh Jackson, Phoenix Suns, Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers

Josh Jackson's situation is very similar to MCW's was in his rookie season, as he is clearly an inefficient player right now in year 1, but his tanking team is giving him all the minutes he can handle. In 31 minutes a game over the last month, Jackson has posted averages of 18 points, 6.7 boards, 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks. He also contributes a bit from 3 as well, with 0.8 a game. While he's shot better during that stretch, with a field goal percentage of 47, he still sits on awful 41/62 splits on the season. Unlike MCW, I believe Jackson will become a decent player, but right now he fits here as a guy who will stuff the stat sheet but will be too damaging to the percentages for teams not punting.

Lonzo's numbers look remarkably similar to MCW's rookie season with the only difference being significantly less volume, which is a huge positive in this case. 10.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals. 0.8 blocks and 1.7 3s is good for a phenomenal top 40 ranking in punt FT% teams and top 80 overall, even with his atrocious 37/50 percentage splits. It's easy to forget that MCW produced 2 more excellent punt FT% seasons following his rookie year before disappearing into oblivion, and Lonzo has a better pedigree and is a better prospect than MCW ever was. Lonzo looks to be a top-30 type guy next season and can become a top-10 guy in punt FT% builds very soon.

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