NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 17) - Targets and Avoids

December 27, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

What usually is the season finale is now the penultimate week of the regular season. 24 out of 32 teams are still in playoff contention. Just eight teams have officially been eliminated. This is why the NFL is the best.

The major upset of Week 16 was the Texans beating down on the Chargers. The Bears converting a two-point conversion in Seattle was the other upset.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 17

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Patriots -15.5 vs. Jaguars, 49ers -15 vs. Texans, Bills -14.5 vs. Falcons, Bucs -13 at Jets, Seahawks -7 vs. Lions, Colts -7 vs. Raiders, and Saints -7 vs. Panthers.

A lot of these lines may have changed due to COVID. This article was published Wednesday.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 17

Patriots -15.5 vs. Jaguars

Bills -14.5 vs. Falcons

Bucs -13 at Jets

49ers -12.5 vs. Texans

You can loop all these four games into one. The Niners make me a little hesitant with Trey Lance possibly getting the start if Jimmy Garoppolo can't go. Still, their running game should be enough.

Meantime, expect Matt Ryan to have a shot at a backdoor cover.

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Seahawks -7 vs. Lions

Seattle should not be favored by a touchdown against anyone. How do you lose at home to the Bears when leading 17-7 and 24-17. Seattle's defense kept getting gashed by David Montgomery. Russell Wilson and the offense just do not look like themselves. Detroit is going to be motivated as they always seem to be. They have a good offensive line that will be able to move the ball on the ground and control the clock as they rank in the top-half in rushing yards per game in their last three.

Lions 23 - Seahawks 19

Saints -7 vs. Panthers 

Doesn't matter who's behind center for New Orleans, they all are not capable starters. Trevor Siemian can't put together two straight touchdown drives. Taysom Hill is not a good passer, and Ian Book is a career backup. There's only so much Alvin Kamara can do on his own. The defense allowing 20 points would be enough for most teams, not even close for the Saints though.

Panthers 20 - Saints 16

Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings

Green Bay's defense allowed 219 rushing yards on 25 carries, which is 8.8 yards per attempt. Minnesota is averaging the sixth-most rushing yards over the last three. While their pass defense ranks in the bottom-ten, they should be able to control the clock and sustain long drives and cover this number.

The Packers are in the prime teaser spot and it's the Sunday Night Football game. It look too easy.

Packers 27 - Vikings 24

Best Bets

• Washington +3.5 vs. Eagles - I love taking the team off an embarrassingly bad loss on national television. These two teams will have played twice in 11 days, plus that was a game in which Washington was decimated by COVID. The Football Team will be one of the most unpopular picks which is why I like this more and more.
• Panthers +7 at Saints
• Vikings +6.5 at Packers

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2021 season total: 25-22-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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