NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

The NFL seems like a short season with only 17 regular season games played, but then you look back at Week 8 and realize the Chiefs lost 27-3 to the Titans, it feels like eons ago. After that loss, I wrote,  "If there's ever been a better buy-low chance on any team, it's Kansas City this week. Their odds to win the Super Bowl are 9-1, and the AFC Championship is +450. All week we're going to hear countless hot takes about what's wrong with Mahomes, the offense, and defense. But it's football. It's a week-to-week game. Their rebound starts this Monday night against the Giants." That rebound did indeed start that Monday night where they beat the Giants and are now winners of seven in a row, atop the AFC.

The Saints beating the Bucs and Lions shocking the Cardinals were the two big underdogs to win in Week 15.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 16

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Cowboys -10.5 vs Washington, Bucs -10 at Panthers, Chargers -10 at Texans, Eagles -9.5 vs. Giants,  Chiefs -9 vs. Steelers, and Packers -7.5 vs. Browns.

No more byes beginning this week. It's a full slate of football.

A lot of these lines may have changed due to COVID.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 16

Bucs -10 at Panthers

This is my bet of the year. Last year, just like last week, Tampa lost to the Saints on Sunday Night Football. That game was a 38-3 romp. The following game they played in Carolina and dominated winning 46-23. I see a very similar result coming. While they won't have Chris Godwin and may be without Mike Evans, they'll have Antonio Brown returning. Tom Brady will be angry all week about that embarrassing loss and will try to run it up in this one.

The Panthers have lost four in a row and have not scored more than 21 points in any. In their last three games, they're averaging 4.3 yards per play, 31st in the league. Cam Newton is a shell of himself.

Bucs 45 - Panthers 17

Chiefs -9 vs. Steelers

Pittsburgh's offense is really putrid. Their defense won them the game Sunday against Tennessee with all the turnovers. Even with the Chiefs dealing with COVID issues, they can still get to 24 points, which should be plenty.

Chiefs 30 - Steelers 17

Cowboys -10.5 vs. Washington 

Washington is losing players left and right. The Cowboys defense should dominate

Cowboys 23 - Washington 10

Eagles -10 vs. Giants

If Philly can run the way they did Tuesday night against Washington, they should roll here. The Giants rank 26th in opponent rush yards per game.

Eagles 27 - Giants 13

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Packers -7.5 vs. Browns

This line seems a little too low. The NFL moved the Browns-Raiders game to Monday, in which they lost a heartbreaker 16-14. Now, they have a short turnaround and face arguably the best team in the league in Lambeau Field. You need to score points to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but the Browns are averaging 13.6 points per game in their last five. In their last three, they're 24th in yards per play. This line should be 10 or 11, and that's why I like Cleveland.

Packers 23 - Browns 21

Chargers -10 at Texans

Davis Mills was horrible at the beginning of this year, but he has been improving. He's completing about 65 percent of passes in the last two games with his yards per attempt near seven. The Chargers have given up the most passing yards in the league through the last three games. That should be enough to keep this game within 10.

Chargers 31 - Texans 24 

Best Bets

• Bucs -11 vs. Panthers
• Falcons -6 vs. Lions - Detroit off a major win, now has to go on the road where their point differential is about three points worse.
• Texans +10 vs. Chargers

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2021 season total: 23-21-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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