RADIO
I know it's only Tuesday but I couldn't resist the chance to come back with some more picks for tonight's games. There are only five games on the slate but one of those games is easily the best matchup of the year so far between the two hottest (and arguably best) teams in the NBA. Plus, we are HOT as the Cavs not only covered but spanked the Mavs last night, and the OKC-HOU game finished at 201 points, well under the total. Let's keep it rolling tonight!
I know I have mentioned this but Vegas is catching on to these totals and dropping the O/U numbers accordingly, giving us less to work with. I still think we can find a few spots to attack here, but a general trend that I am seeing is that there are fewer obvious spots to bet each day, making my job all the harder. That's why I used modeled data and trends and try to find multiple angles for these picks daily.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, November 30th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 31-37
- Against the Spread 17-10
- Over/Under 10-12
- Teasers/Parlays 4-15
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I might have to stop betting on Knicks games going over as they failed to go over (but still won) despite scoring 63 first-half points.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (+2) @ Phoenix Suns (221 total)
No lie, this is probably the most excited I have been for an NBA game in a few years. We have a huge showdown tonight between the 18-2 Warriors and the 17-3 Suns and it's a national TV broadcast on TNT. It doesn't get much better than that and if you can only watch one game tonight (or this week) then it should be this one.
I could go on and on about how both of these teams play the game the right way - by actually playing defense and moving the ball on offense, but that's not all that relevant to my betting pick. It's no surprise to me, though, that these teams are having so much early-season success as they've both been able to stay relatively healthy and get the most of our their stars and bench units.
The Suns HAVE NOT LOST in November! Which is incredible. But unfortunately, there is still one more day this month and they have to host the best team in the NBA (yes, I said it) tonight. My numbers give the Warriors an edge tonight across the board and my gut also says that we see them hand the Suns their first loss since October 27th.
When it comes down to it, I'm not betting against the likely MVP Steph Curry or potential DPOY Draymond Green. The Suns are going to battle and this game is going to be awesome, but I think the Warriors prevail. Rather than take the points, I'm just going to bet on the Warriors moneyline at plus odds.
The Pick: Warriors ML (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I also think this game goes UNDER the total and it has the biggest difference of any game on the model today. Both teams are solid defensively and I think we see this game slow down instead of speed up, especially if it's close throughout with each team really valuing each possession.
BONUS PICK: UNDER 222 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
New York Knicks (+6.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (216 total)
The other national TV game is a warm-up for the main event with both New York teams squaring off. The Knicks have been disappointing in November after a good start to the year. Coach Thibs has taken Kemba Walker out of the rotation and is starting Alec Burks in an attempt to jumpstart this offense. The Nets are 10-3 this month with their only losses coming to the Suns, Warriors, and Bulls - three of the best teams in the NBA.
I think the Nets win here, but the Knicks should scrap and fight. I don't like the line where it is on either side, so I am going to target the total instead. I have given up on going OVER in Knicks games as their offense has been pretty lousy for the last month and the trends now support an under instead. The Knicks have now gone under in seven of 20 games while Brooklyn has gone under in nine of 20. I have this one pegged around 212 tonight so there's less wiggle room than I would like, but both the pace and defensive ratings of each squad favor a slower, lower-scoring game.
I'm rolling with the under here. And if you can do a same game parlay with your book, I wouldn't mind pairing with the Brooklyn ML. The Nets should win, but it could be ugly.
The Pick: UNDER 216 (good down to 213.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
We are switching over from ML parlays to a teaser tonight. I like the Warriors to win, but I'll toss them in here as an insurance policy as they will surely keep it close even if they don't win. Portland should win, but let's lower that spread on a back-to-back against a pesky Pistons team. And the Kings are now +5 at home to a Lakers team they just beat, I think they'll keep this one close, too.
The Pick: SAC/POR/GSW 4.5 Teaser (+150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Memphis is allowing the best 3-point percentage to opponents! Could be a good day for shooters like Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. who made three and four 3-pointers each, respectively, against Memphis in their last meeting!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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