NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 8) - Targets and Avoids

October 31, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 8 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

If there's ever been a better buy-low chance on any team, it's Kansas City this week. They looked so bad Sunday against Tennessee. Patrick Mahomes got knocked around, the offense even failing to score a touchdown. Their odds to win the Super Bowl are 9-1, and the AFC Championship is +450. All week we're going to hear countless hot takes about what's wrong with Mahomes, the offense, and defense. But it's football. It's a week-to-week game. Their rebound starts this Monday night against the Giants.

I keep saying the same thing every week, it was another week of favorites. Arizona, New England, Green Bay, the LA Rams, Tampa Bay, all won. The only marginal favorites to lose were Carolina and Baltimore. This tweet says it all.

But what really gets me is the people who don't make a pick. In my pool this week, 12 entrants were eliminated because they didn't make a pick. So far, 69 entrants did not make a pick through seven weeks. Just absurd. But better for everyone still in the pool. With all of that being said, let's move on to my survivor pool targets and avoids for Week 8.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that. 

Survivor League Strategy

Not many entrants have been eliminated and the majority of people remain in most pools. I'm going to keep trying to save the best teams for later. When considering a certain team, check the schedule to see what are spots would be good to take them. And sometimes, it's nice to just take the best team and move on.

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 8

Lines are consensus from The Action Network (home team in caps); Rams -14.5 at TEXANS, BILLS -13.5 vs. Dolphins, CHIEFS -10 vs. Giants, and Bengals -9.5 at JETS.

Teams on bye this week; Raiders, Ravens

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 8

Rams -14.5 at TEXANS
BILLS -13.5 vs. Dolphins

Not much case to be made for these two games. Like last week, it's when do you want to use these teams? The next best chance to use the Rams is Week 13 at home against the Jaguars. There are a plethora of options to use Buffalo; next week at Jacksonville, Week 10 at home against the Jets, Week 11 against the Colts, Week 15 against the Panthers, Week 17 against the Falcons, and Week 18 at the Jets. I would hold Buffalo and the Rams. Which brings me to Kansas City.

CHIEFS -10 vs. Giants

I've had the Chiefs circled for this game all year. This is the best chance to use Kansas City the rest of the season. Despite the Chiefs having the worst defense in yards per play, 30th on third downs, and 28th in the red zone. Simply put this defense is atrocious. But at least the Giants offense is 31st in yards per play in their last three. Overall they have the 25th scoring offense. The Giants defense did look good Sunday against Sam Darnold and the Panthers, but come on. Now they get an elite offense. If Kansas City can't win this one, I deserve to be knocked out of both my survivor pool.

Chiefs 34 - Giants 23

Bengals -9.5 at JETS

If there were ever a letdown game in this league, it's this one. Cincinnati is off their biggest win in years. They blew out Baltimore on the road. And now they face the lowly Jets who just gave up 54 points and don't even have their starting quarterback Zach Wilson who's out with a knee injury. Mike White is expected to get the start in place of Wilson. White has never started a game and has been up-and-down from the practice squad since he was drafted in 2018. All signs point to the Bengals cruising to another win.

Bengals 27 - Jets 13

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Eagles -3.5 at LIONS

There's really just not many avoids anymore in this league. The favorites are coasting and the point spreads are getting bigger and bigger. But if you're thinking of trying to save the Rams, Chiefs, and Bills and go with Philly this week, I wouldn't.

Jalen Hurts is the ultimate garbage time quarterback. The Eagles constantly fall behind and then score touchdowns in the fourth and make the score look a lot better.

Detroit may be the best 0-7 team I've ever seen. They led the Packers at halftime in Week 2, lost on a 66-yard Justin Tucker field goal, a Vikings last-second field goal, and gave the Rams all they could handle this past week. They're going to win a game at some point.

Lions 23 - Eagles 20

Best Bets

• COLTS +1.5 vs. Titans - Tennessee off two very emotional games. Indy seems to be rounding into form. Carson Wentz has looked a lot better. And their defense is 12th in opponent rush yards per attempt.
• LIONS +3.5 vs. Eagles - I think this is finally the week Detroit gets their win.
• CHIEFS -10 vs. Giants - If Kansas City can't destroy this Giants team at home on Monday Night Football, then there are real real issues with the Chiefs.

Running Totals

• Last week: 0-3
• 2021 season total: 9-11-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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