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Najee Harris is a difficult player to value for fantasy football drafts. Eli Grabanski analyzes Harris's profile and determines whether the running back is a good fantasy value pick in 2021.
Today's fantasy football profile will take a look at rookie running back Najee Harris by looking at his positives, his concerns, and a variety of other important information in determining his fantasy outlook for 2021.
Harris was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and has received a lot of hype in the fantasy community given his status as the perceived bell-cow of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But will he ultimately live up to the hype?
Let's dive in and find out!
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The Good With Najee Harris
- Dual-Threat: Najee Harris proved himself capable both on the ground and through the air during his college career. During the 2019 college football season, he took 209 carries for 1224 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns on the ground and caught 27 passes for 304 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns through the air. He proved that was no fluke in 2020, taking 251 carries for 1466 rushing yards and 26 rushing yards on the ground, and catching 43 passes for 425 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns through the air. By being capable both on the ground and through the air, it makes it harder to take Harris off the field.
- Size & Athletic Ability: Najee Harris is a bigger back standing at 6’2’’ and weighing 230 pounds. He isn’t afraid to utilize his size and physicality when he runs, has great contact balance, and also is surprisingly elusive for his size.
- High Draft Capita & Likely Bell-Cow Role: The Steelers invested a 1st round pick in Najee Harris. Given this investment and the other backs currently on the roster, it’s clear that the Steelers envision Harris in a bell-cow role. Given the lack of bell-cows currently in the NFL, this makes Najee Harris a more intriguing fantasy investment.
The Concerns With Najee Harris
- Crappy Run-Blocking Offensive Line: Last year according to PFF, the Steelers offensive line ranked 17th overall. But the team had massive differences between their pass-blocking and run-blocking abilities, ranking near the top in pass-blocking but just 31st in the run-blocking category in 2020. This raises some concerns about the running room Najee Harris will see in 2020.
- Not A Big Play Guy: Najee Harris may have consistently gotten positive gains, but he’s not a major home-run threat to take a long run to the house with the longest rush of his college career being a 53 yard run against Notre Dame his senior year.
- Big Ben & Father Time: Ben Roethlisberger showed some signs of falling off last year, throwing for just 3803 yards despite having 608 pass attempts (6.3 yards per attempt). Including the playoffs from week 11 on (seven games), Big Ben threw 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Now 39 years old and with an extensive injury history, Big Ben’s abilities could be called into question for the 2021 season. If Big Ben falls off in 2021, there will be significantly fewer scoring opportunities for the offense.
Additional Info
- Firing Of Randy Fichtner & Promotion of Matt Canada: Randy Fichtner refused to run the ball as the Steelers offensive coordinator, with the team having 345 rushing attempts in 2018, 395 rushing attempts in 2019, and 373 rushing attempts in 2020. Matt Canada’s history as a college play-caller suggests that he will run the ball a lot more than that, with his running back room averaging 26.62 carries, 135.95 rushing yards, and 1.33 rushing touchdowns per game over the course of his 175 game career as a college offensive coordinator or head coach.
- Canada's Previous RBs: Some previous NFL running backs that Matt Canada has worked with at the college level include: Michael Turner (2003, Northern Illinois), Montee Ball (2012, Wisconsin), James White (2012, Wisconsin), Melvin Gordon (2012, Wisconsin), Nyheim Hines (2015, NC State), James Conner (2016, Pittsburgh), Qadree Ollison (2016, Pittsburgh), Derrius Guice (2017, LSU), Darrel Williams (2017, LSU), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2017, LSU), and Anthony McFarland Jr. (2018, Maryland).
- Preseason Stat Lines: Najee Harris took seven carries for 22 rushing yards and caught one pass on one target for three receiving yards against the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall Of Fame game. In Week 1 of the preseason against the Philadelphia Eagles, he carried the ball twice for 10 rushing yards and caught one pass on two targets for nine receiving yards. In Week 2 of the preseason against the Detroit Lions, he took four carries for 10 rushing yards on the ground and caught two passes on three targets for 53 receiving yards through the air. In total, his final preseason totals were 13 carries, 42 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 6 targets, and 65 receiving yards.
Personal Thoughts
Najee Harris is currently going off the board as RB11 on ESPN (18.3 overall), RB11 on NFL.com (17.98), and RB11 (17.8) on Yahoo. This is in the right ballpark - the only RB ranked lower than Najee that I would definitively move ahead of him right now is Antonio Gibson. The combination of an aging Ben Roethlisberger, the firing of Randy Fichtner & promotion of Matt Canada to offensive coordinator, and spending a 1st round pick on Harris all indicate that the Steelers intend on having a more run-heavy approach in 2021. The offensive line is a major concern that limits his upside (he's unlikely to be a top-five fantasy RB), but volume alone should give Najee Harris a high floor (at least an RB2) in fantasy leagues.
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