RADIO
This is the last free MLB betting article of the season. We have a full day of games, so let's make this the best day we can! As always, I focus on trying to find where I think some of the best opportunities are in the betting market and make my best guesses there. On many days it might be two or three picks as opposed to trying to have a take for every game out there. I am all about bankroll management and making smart decisions!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone can bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: ATL -155
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These two starting pitchers are very similar when looking at the metrics. Drew Smyly (8-3, 4.41) has a SIERA of 4.61 and a K-BB% of 12.5%. Paolo Espino (3-3 3.74) has a SIERA of 4.51 and a K-BB% of 13.5%. Both pitchers are capable of getting blown up. Smyly's blow-ups were more in the early part of the season where he had several starts in a row of allowing 5 runs, however with that out of the way he still has allowed five earned runs in 10 innings pitched his last two starts. Espino actually got blown up his last start on August 4th against Philadelphia, allowing six earned runs in five innings pitched.
With the pitching matchup so even, and Washington playing at home, I have interest in their side mostly due to the odds. It's hard for me to buy that Atlanta is a 61% favorite. This pick here is about trying to get value on the sportsbook, as I think Atlanta's odds of winning are closer to 56-57%.
Pick: Nationals ML (+135) DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: HOU -200
HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.| LAA: Reid Detmers
Poor Ried Detmers (0-2, 10.61) has been struggling and then has to go against one of the better lineups in the league in the Houston Astros. Detmers has pitched each of the last two Sundays. He has allowed 11 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched, which is not good. I feel bad for the kid, as he was the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft, has the pedigree of a good prospect. He struck out 47 batters in 30 innings in 2020 at the alternate site, and this year had a K% of 43% in AA and 40.9% in his one AAA start. Despite all of the positives, he's struggled in the big leagues early on, as so many young guys routinely do.
It's easy to see why Houston would be such a heavy favorite in this game with Lance McCullers (9-3, 3.22) on the mound. I have a hard time recommending the bet on Houston because of how much juice one has to lay. Instead, I am going to recommend the Over 10 runs. While Detmers ERA has not been good and it's very likely he will allow a handful of runs, McCullers has been known to give up runs in bunches as well. In his last four starts, he has allowed four runs exactly three times (he did allow zero runs against the Dodgers on August 3rd). I am not saying he gives up four runs this start, but I could see Detmers allowing four or five runs, before turning the game over to the Angels Bullpen with their 4.69 ERA. McCullers likely allows a couple of runs and the Astros 3.86 Bullpen ERA allows another run or so. 10 runs are very much in play and if they score exactly 10, it's a push anyway. I'm willing to take a shot here instead of paying the heavy juice for the Astros.
Pick: Over 10 Runs (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: OAK -210
OAK: Sean Manaea| TEX: Kolby Allard
This is a game that on paper one would look at and figure we'd go straight to Oakland here. Sean Manaea (8-7, 3.43) has had a couple of rough outings. Last time out, he pitched 1.2 innings and allowed three runs. The start before, he pitched 4.1 innings and allowed five runs. He is not in good form. Kolby Allard (2-10, 4.93), on the other hand, has been pitching well of late. He has pitched six innings in each of his last two starts, allowing two runs in each start respectively. Given the trend of both pitchers, Oakland is too big of a favorite in this game. This bet is similar to the first game where this is more about the odds. It is likely that Oakland wins this game, however in the chance that Allard puts together another good start and Manaea still is not right, the +180 payout is a good payoff. It will definitely be an interesting game to keep an eye on and more than what appears on paper.
Pick: Texas Rangers ML (+180) BetMGM Sportsbook
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