RADIO
Chris Wassel delivers his top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 3rd including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 3rd, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/3
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- Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers
- St. Louis Blues vs. Anaheim Ducks
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings
- Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a six-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the 12 goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch the North Division clash? It's a great question. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Arizona Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, San Jose and Colorado could be unexpectedly filled with offense which will make life on the goalies difficult. There will be plenty of questions.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs offer the most scoring potential but there could be many surprises. Minnesota and Vegas featured more goals than expected on Monday and might again. San Jose and even Colorado have problems with consistency. Which players can one trust?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, etc but also easier to go with one-offs, etc.
The Anaheim and St. Louis game is a true wildcard. St. Louis's most consistent trait is again their inconsistency. No one quite knows what to expect here but their special teams give as well as receive. Anaheim scored four times on Monday. Do they get helped once more?
Finally, the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins get together. Typically, these are lower-scoring games but again anything can happen. Consider, both teams are a bit vulnerable down the middle defensively. They both have high-powered offenses. Chances may be lower than usual but probably will feature higher quality.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $8,900 FD) - McDavid is our top pick because of the uncertainty of Auston Matthews' wrist injury. He has gone without a point in his last two games but the last contest versus Toronto was more like the normal McDavid. The center fired six shots on Michael Hutchinson but none went in. He had five scoring chances and hit a post. Really, McDavid performed well but just did not score. It just does not get much better than the center other than maybe Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon is facing the third-worst defense in the league in the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday night. Much like McDavid, MacKinnon had the same poor puck luck. He is a few hundred dollars cheaper if McDavid is too risky for your palettes. Even Patrice Bergeron may be on one's radar.
- Nicklas Backstrom, WSH ($6,200 DK / $6,400 FD) - We are digging a bit lower but not too much as Backstrom provides upper-tier production at more of an upper-middle-class salary. The shot volume has been scattered and a bit mixed but he does have five goals and 11 points in his last ten games. With Washington mostly healthy, this could be a surprising play even against Boston, who has not quite looked itself in this latest stretch defensively. Sometimes the risk is worth it much like a Christian Dvorak or Anze Kopitar tonight. Arizona and Los Angeles could feature a few extra goals.
- Joel Eriksson Ek, MIN ($4,700 DK/ $4,700 DK) - There is a bevy of upper-priced talent on Wednesday so we head into the middle-tier for Eriksson Ek. He has seven points and four goals in his last 11 games along with 2.3 shots per game. This goes with nearly three scoring chances a night. Minnesota is in a unique position where one can stack line one or go even riskier and look at line three (value). Vegas held him to nothing on Monday (a DFS bagel) but do not expect that to happen again on Wednesday.
This is again a smallish medium slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. It seems expected. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with San Jose and Colorado. Then, there are lineup decisions with Toronto and St. Louis that may not come till too close to the start of the slate.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Jordan Kyrou, STL ($4,800 DK / $4,300 FD) - It is too hard not to try and take one more shot at this with Kyrou here. He looked great over the weekend and again on Monday night versus Anaheim. Kyrou had speed and acceleration everywhere. Against a less than mobile Ducks team, this should be a considerable asset. If he keeps playing 16-17 minutes plus a night, the opportunities will come. The Blues have quite the talented offense and special teams. They are one of those squads that play in the fun realm. Kyrou plays a big role in that when his game is focused and on target. Kyrou arguably could top the DK shooting bonus with the way he has been shooting lately. Either way, Kyrou will get 3-4 opportunities at a minimum again. Also, his price actually dropped slightly from last week. Until Vladimir Tarasenko comes back, Kyrou is almost a plug-and-play option.
- Kirill Kaprizov, MIN ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) - Kaprizov has been a part of one of the hottest lines in hockey and that is no surprise. He has 17 points and six goals on the season while hitting on an increasing shot and chance volume again. He is still at a hair less than two shots a night but managing nearly three scoring chances a game. The linemates do not seem to matter as Kaprizov sees a sizable decrease in price on DraftKings. That makes him a value play there and still a viable option on FanDuel despite the $500 increase from last week. Vegas allowed him three shots, three scoring chances, and several near misses on Monday night. When does Minnesota put Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek together full time is the question?
- Trevor Zegras, ANA ($2,800 DK / $3,200 FD) - Zegras was one of the most highly anticipated prospect call-ups for Anaheim in years. He did not disappoint on Monday night with several quality chances. This is purely a punt play on Wednesday but the winger is just difficult to contain. His vision on the ice is that of a top-line forward in the NHL already. If he starts cranking his shot like Zegras did on Monday against St. Louis, the goals will keep coming (five shots, four scoring chances).
- Clayton Keller, ARZ ($5,100 DK/ $5,800 FD) - Keller and Conor Garland could be joined at the hip here depending on the status of Garland. Just monitor the situation a bit before making a decision. Either way, Keller has three goals and eight points in his previous nine outings. He is averaging nearly three shots a game in this span and creating almost a full scoring chance more a night. If he is active on the puck and motivated, he is producing. It is that simple for Keller. This is all about consistency and focus -- not talent. Keller will get his opportunities playing with Phil Kessel in some situations.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in Edmonton and Anaheim. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Drew Doughty, LAK ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) - With a significant price drop on DraftKings and a slight decrease on FanDuel, Doughty again gets the nod tonight. The Los Angeles stalwart defenseman averages right around two blocks and two shots a night. He has ten points (eight assists) in his last ten games. Also, Doughty has ten power-play points and three goals. Few expected Doughty to even come close to maintaining this pace but here we are. The three-game point drought before Monday night should not scare people off. He has three assists in two games versus the Coyotes this year while averaging nearly three scoring chances, three shots, and two blocked shots a meeting.
- Devon Toews, COL ($5,200 DK / $4,700 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Toews still sees some solid power-play time and that is essential in looking at plays. Toews plays a rover-like position on defense which means he has more chances to create and block shots. San Jose gave up two goals only on Monday but a ton of opportunities that Toews and Colorado could not convert. With no Cale Makar tonight, Toews will have the keys from the defensive end of things. His lower salary here may pay more dividends again versus a bottom-third ranked defense and penalty kill in San Jose.
Sneaking in Jonas Brodin could be a reasonable alternative here on Wednesday. His price is just $4.500 on DraftKings and only $3,800 on FanDuel. Did these price-makers watch hockey Monday night (Brodin had two assists)? Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (back to back scenarios and short slate)
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for St. Louis, Los Angeles, etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. Cal Petersen could be worth the risk for Los Angeles if he starts. If Quick is in the net, pivot quickly. One could risk the proverbial farm and look at John Gibson, hoping that Anaheim keeps the scoring somewhat down. Again, this is a challenging slate especially for goaltending.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- COL PP 1
- MacKinnon/ Landeskog/ Rantanen (Toews, D-men add on)
- ARZ 2
- Keller/ Dvorak/ Crouse (Kessel/Garland?) (Ekman-Larsson, D-men add on)
- ANA 2
- Zegras/ Henrique/ Silfverberg (Fowler [high-risk], D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: BOS 1, MIN 1, STL 1, LAK 1, WSH 2, TOR 2, MIN 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
