RADIO
If last weekend was heartbreaking, this weekend was devastating. Let's quickly look at the picks; West Brom and Brighton both to score (prediction 1-1). What happened? West Brom won 1-0, while Brighton missed two penalties and had a goal controversially ruled out, awarded, then disallowed again due to a refereeing error. Wolves to beat Newcastle (prediction 1-2). What happened? With the game at 1-1 in the 93rd minute, Wolves was denied a goal by the goalkeeper's shoulder and the crossbar. Crystal Palace then did avoid defeat in a low-scoring game as expected so we got one pick at least. Just a further reminder of how close you can be in the EPL without winning. A +765 parlay, two correct scores at +575 and +900 plus the -104 and +127 picks denied by the finest of margins. Anyway, no time to lick our wounds as we have another seven-games to work through in midweek.
- Picks total - 28 out of 70
- Parlays - 2 out of 23
- Correct scores - 8 out of 72
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Wednesday, March 03rd, 2021
Aston Villa @ Sheffield United - 1:00 pm ET
Aston Villa picked up an impressive win on Friday, beating Leeds away 1-0. Despite sitting comfortably in the top half of the table, their league form has been inconsistent. After starting the season with four straight wins, they've only managed back-to-back victories once since then. In their last 15 EPL games, Aston Villa's only defeats have come in against the teams currently in the top-4 league spots, underlining their credentials as a top-10 side this season.
While Sheffield United did tease a historic recovery in the league by winning three of five games, after picking up just two points in their first 17 league games, that dream has almost completely dissipated. Defeat at home to Liverpool on Sunday means they've now lost four straight, scoring just once and still only have one clean sheet all season. Their 15 goals in 26 games is the lowest in the league and with just 12 games remaining this season, realistically they need to win eight of those games to have any hope of staying up this season. It looks like their season will peter out and we likely won't see more positive results until relegation is confirmed and they begin to relax. Until then, it's difficult to back them.
The two sides played in matchweek 2, with Aston Villa coming away 1-0 winners. After a free-scoring start to the campaign, Aston Villa has scored 11 goals in their last 11 games so I see this being a tight game, potentially a goalless draw. I think the first goal wins and will more than likely be the only goal, whoever scores it.
Aston Villa 9th - 39 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 11 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 1 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +675)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both teams to score/total number of goals: No & under 2.5 @ +120 (Pinnacle)
Thursday, March 04th, 2021
Everton @ West Brom - 1:00 pm ET
Everton is playing Southampton on Monday, which doesn't really help as they have two days less to prepare for this game. But they're still heavy favourites for the tie and continue to push for a top-4 finish in the league and qualification for next season's European Cup. Last weekend they beat rivals Liverpool away, marking the first time they've beaten their neighbours in the league since 2010. Prior to the game, Everton went three league games without a win and had just one victory in six games. Although their form has been a bit up and down, Everton has been much better away from home with 26 of their 40 points coming in road games.
As we mentioned in the intro, West Brom got away with the soccer equivalent of murder on Saturday. The expected goals (xG) in that game was West Brom 0.5 and Brighton 2.6. Only twice this season have West Brom's opponents had a higher xG than 2.6, a 4-0 defeat to Arsenal (3.3 xG) and a 5-2 defeat against Everton (3.4 xG) when they met in matchweek 2. Saturday was only West Brom's third win of the season and the first in eight games. You might point to the fact they now haven't lost in three league games but two of those have come against teams in the bottom five. In 13 games this season against teams currently in the top half of the table, West Brom has four draws and nine defeats and in three of those drawn games, the difference in xG between was one or more in favour of their opponents.
Everton is odds on to win, but interestingly, aren't too heavily favoured to win nor win more corners in this game. West Brom has the fewest number of corners taken (87) and the most conceded (174). Only four times this season has West Brom had more corners in a game than their opponents and only once that happened against a team in the top half of the table. That was against Tottenham, a game they still lost 1-0. If Everton wins this game, it's more than likely they will have the most corners too.
Everton 7th - 40 pts
West Brom 19th - 17 pts
Score prediction: West Brom 1 - 3 Everton (Pinnacle odds +1450)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Everton to win the match & Everton to have the most corners @ +225 (Draftkings)
Chelsea @ Liverpool - 3:15 pm ET
Chelsea's unbeaten record under new Head Coach Thomas Tuchel extended to seven games with a 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United. That was also their fifth clean sheet in seven games as they now have the second-best defensive record this season (25 goals conceded in 26 games). It was the first time since Tuchel's first game in charge that Chelsea failed to score and the fourth time they've played against a team inside the top-3 of the league this season without managing a win, suggesting they lack that extra level of quality to beat the top sides.
Liverpool ended their dreadful run of four straight losses by beating bottom of the table Sheffield United 2-0. That was their first clean sheet in eight games as defensive injuries have wrecked their title defense. Prior to this clean sheet, they'd conceded 13 in seven games and seven in three games. The 34 goals conceded in 26 games this season is the most of any teams in the top half of the table. Their last 12 games have seen Liverpool pick up just 12 points and score 11 goals and at home, Liverpool is winless in six games.
As we saw with Chelsea's game with Manchester United, matches between two of the top teams regularly become tight affairs and lack goals. Historically, Chelsea vs Liverpool bucks that trend. The last couple of years has seen things a little closer with Liverpool being unbeaten in their last five league contests. Liverpool's defensive injuries should prove too much to keep a clean sheet but they'll not want to make it five straight home league defeats for the first time since pre-World War Two. The final caveat for this game is referee Craig Pawson who has averaged 3.93 cards per game this season, the second-highest in the league. I do slightly give Chelsea the edge in this but I'll sit on the fence a bit.
Chelsea 5th - 43 pts
Liverpool 6th - 43 pts
Score prediction: Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +625)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Both teams to score over 0.5 goals and both teams to get over 0.5 total cards @ +108 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +1387
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 27 picks.
