Jon Anderson's Third Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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Welcome back to my own personal rankings series! Today we're covering third base, but you can check out the rest of the series at the links below:

First Base
Second Base
Shortstop

Third base may be the deepest position in terms of total statistical production that will come out of it, but that does not mean that there are not massive gaps between the tiers. While you can grab a start-worthy third baseman later in the draft, you are giving up quite a bit of opportunity in the earlier rounds if you do that. Let's break down these tiers!

Tier 1

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Jose Ramirez	1	10.3	653	99	32	97	23	.272

All of the names in the first two tiers had either surprisingly good or surprisingly bad seasons in 2020, and those short sample sizes have sent them in one direction or the other in terms of ADP. Ramirez had a fantastic 2020 season, and that leaves him 11 draft picks ahead of the second third baseman being taken in drafts.

The 2020 season really is not the main reason I have Ramirez alone in tier one, it's mostly about the steals. Ramirez has not been very consistent in his career, but over the last four seasons he has been elite in at least one category every year. In 2017, J-Ram was elite in batting average, and pretty strong in homers and steals. Iin 2018, the batting average went away but he stole a ton of bags and hit 39 homers. His 2019 season was ruined by a horrendous first half, but he still went for 23 homers and 24 steals. Last year he put it all together, hitting .292 while smashing 17 homers and stealing ten bags.

It's unlikely that he will be a smash in all three of those categories again, but you can feel extremely confident that he will be a huge boost to you in at least two of those spots - which you just can't say about anybody else on this list.

Tier 2

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Manny Machado	2	21.6	661	97	37	108	9	.272
Anthony Rendon	3	42.2	656	92	27	96	3	.275
Rafael Devers	4	43.1	658	100	34	104	7	.288
Alex Bregman	5	41.3	660	101	31	100	5	.276

We have Machado rising into tier two while the other names take a step backward after disappointing 2020 seasons. I think it's much more responsible to use 2019 and 2020 data, which puts all four of these guys in the same tier in my book, and thus makes Machado nearly un-draftable in my mind. These projections on Rendon seem ridiculous to me (these are not my projections, mind you), I would take the over on every single one of those. He joins Bregman and Devers as hitters that have easy top 20 hitter upside, but dropping towards pick 50 in the draft. That grouping is overall my favorite way to fill the third base position.

Favorite: Rendon

Tier 3

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Matt Chapman	6	114.1	663	93	35	98	2	.249
Eugenio Suarez	7	81.0	655	89	35	97	3	.238
Nolan Arenado	8	34.4	652	85	31	97	3	.261

None of these three would be a bad consolation prize, and the draft prices on Chapman and Suarez just seem silly cheap to me. Arenado is one of the more interesting names in fantasy this year as we argue about how the move out of Coors will affect him. I think this projection is pretty good, and I could even see him going into the mid-30's in homers, but there are real questions about where his batting average will end up.

If you miss out on that top five, this is a just fine place to fill your starting 3B slot with, and you can really catch up in power without giving a ton up with these three names.

Favorite: Suarez

Tier 4

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Yoan Moncada	9	86.9	650	85	24	78	7	.250
Kris Bryant	10	131.2	651	93	26	83	3	.254
Josh Donaldson	11	193.3	591	86	30	85	3	.244
Gio Urshela	12	158.9	592	70	28	75	3	.270

This now turns into a question of preference. You have solid veterans with limited upside in Bryant and Donaldson here, and then a guy with a low floor and high ceiling in Moncada. If you need some steals out of your third baseman, Moncada is probably the guy here for you, but if you want safety you would want to look to the other three names. The ADP is pretty spread out, making Donaldson a really nice pick if you think he'll stay on the field all year (I don't).

Favorite: Urshela

Tier 5

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Justin Turner	13	220.0	567	76	21	77	2	.279
Kyle Seager	14	264.6	634	74	26	81	5	.235
Alec Bohm	15	104.7	574	75	22	80	5	.287
Ke'Bryan Hayes	16	140.0	581	73	18	71	9	.281
Austin Riley	17	215.1	568	74	29	84	2	.258

Three young guys and two old-timers make up tier five, and there's another huge spread in ADP here. Bohm is the consensus favorite here with that 105 ADP, but I just don't see the power numbers being there for him. He's a potential .300 hitter, which is really valuable after pick 100, but I think I would rather roll the dice on someone I think can hit 30 homers in most situations.

I am pretty high on Turner, as you can tell, and maybe that is misguided since he is unlikely to play anything close to 162 games with his age and how stacked the Dodgers are. However, I think the RBI and batting average will be there when he's on the field, so I'll take that and deal with the off days.

Hayes and Riley have the upside here but are clearly not safe bets. All things considered, I think I'll take the 33-year-old Mariner here coming off his strong showing in 2020 where he hit nine homers, stole five bases, and struck out at just a 13.3% clip.

Favorite: Seager

Tier 6

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Tommy Edman	18	129.7	499	61	12	52	13	.266
Brian Anderson	19	222.5	647	75	21	78	3	.251
Jeimer Candelario	20	246.2	628	77	22	78	4	.249
Eduardo Escobar	21	301.6	607	72	23	79	3	.248
J.D. Davis	22	219.6	544	69	22	71	2	.254

By this point in the draft you really don't want to be drafting a starter unless you're going for Edman because you think he can steal 20 bases. These names are all really low-upside types. J.D. Davis seems to be the only guy with the ability to post a really valuable fantasy season, but it does not look like he's going to be a starter with the Mets. A trade would would send him up at least one tier for me, but right now I'm off of that idea.

Favorite: Escobar (safest playing time with the lowest price)

Tier 7

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	23	294.3	577	59	8	54	14	.260
Ryan McMahon	24	245.0	533	63	20	67	4	.249
Joey Wendle	25	311.7	397	42	7	39	10	.256

Last three names worth mentioning here. There is some appeal with Kiner-Falefa for steals upside, although he did lose that coveted catcher eligibility after last year. McMahon plays in Coors Field, which makes him a nice option half the time, but his .269/.344/.510 career slash line Coors doesn't do enough to make up for the .234/.321/.399 line away from there. Maybe if you have super deep rosters you can stash him for homestands, but it's a pretty unappealing bet overall.

Favorite: McMahon

Rundown

There is a ton of juice in the top eight at the hot corner, but things quickly decelerate after you reach tier four.
Rendon, Bregman, and Devers are three of my favorite earlier round values at any position this year, so I am prioritizing taking the discount on one of those three names to fill my starting 3B spot.
There's really not as much late-round upside at third base as at other positions, making this a good spot to lock in two reliable bats and then not really worry too much about the position.

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