RADIO
Aaron Radziucz's League of Leagues (LoL) analysis and LCS DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings on 8/8/20. He discusses the LC LoL slate and his top targets for cash games and GPPs.
Hello there, LoL enthusiasts, and welcome back to RotoBaller's coverage of LCS for the 2020 Summer split on FanDuel and DraftKings. The LCS has been a lot of fun to cover this season and we've already seen a number of big upsets and some major improvement by some teams while others have begun to falter by the wayside.
Yesterday kicked off week 9 of the LCS summer split. That means this week is the last week until playoffs. As I've mentioned in the past, the LCS is trying a new playoff format this year where 8 out of the 10 teams are going to make the playoffs. This means that unlike other leagues, no team is really out of it pending tiebreakers and such. As we go through the weekend we may start to eliminate teams but for now let's get into this slate, which might be a tough one.
Today I'll be bringing you my League of Legends DFS picks, advice, and analysis for the four-game LCS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks on Saturday, August 1st, at 4:00 PM. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Governor98. Thanks for reading, now let's get to the strategy and picks!
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League of Legends DFS Basics
Since LCS contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.
- Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
- In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
- Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring. Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
- Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID. Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP. Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.
Game 1: IMT vs. TL (-575)
If TL wins one of their games this weekend, they lock up a bye week for playoffs. With that being said they should be pretty motivated in this one as they play a surging TSM on Sunday in the match of the weekend. I expect TL to take care of business here, they have quietly had an awesome season and should end in the first seed. With that being said, TL has been playing very slowly this split with just a lowly 0.58 kills per minute and an average of 12.6 kills per win. I think that they're ok in cash games, where I expect them to be quite chalky but I think I'd look elsewhere in tournaments.
Top TL Plays: Jensen, Tactical, CoreJJ, Broxah, Impact, TL Team
Game 2: EG vs. GGS (-140)
This second game will be very important for playoff seeding. GGS and EG are in the 5 and 6 seeds respectively and both should make the playoffs. It looks like this may be a playoff matchup in the first round. That series will be a great watch. Both teams have had ups and downs this year and both teams will have to have major improvements if either team expects to make a run at the title. GGS is coming off of a win against C9 last week and has looked pretty good as of late. Closer is considered by many the best jungler in the league right now and GGS will go as far as he can take them. If GGS takes this one it will be on the back of Closer. EG averages just under 19 deaths per loss, tops in the league, and GGS slots in at just over 15.3 kills per win. I like GGS here to take this one in what could be a shootout. I don't have enough faith in EG that they can put together a win here and I think that Closer is rolling right now.
Top GGS Plays: Closer, FBI, Damonte, Hauntzer, Huhi, GGS Team
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Game 3: CLG vs. FLY(-375)
This week, CLG made a very peculiar move, sending their no doubt best player, Pobeltor, to the academy team. This move is anything but correct and I believe that CLG should be stacked against every slate the rest of the year. FLY has been known to break some slates with their kill total and this game should be no different. I think PowerOfEvil here is a great play against Tuesday. FLY is very expensive and I expect will be quite high owned but they can't be ignored in this spot. I expect them to put up some big numbers.
Top FLY Plays: PowerOfEvil, Santorin, WildTurtle, Solo, IgNar, FLY team
Game 4: DIG vs. 100T (-210)
This last game is easily the hardest to call. If a couple of things go their way, DIG may be able to squeak into the playoffs. 100T is also right on the playoff line and needs this win in order to stay inside of the playoffs. Usually, when both teams have things to play for the games tend to go slower as teams don't want to make mistakes. As a result, this means fewer kills on average and thus fewer fantasy points. If 100T takes this one I expect it to be on the back of Ssumday who has a pretty good matchup in the top lane versus V1per. If Contractz can enable Ssumday to get rolling then DIG could be in for a long day. On the flip side, it has been a tale of 2 Fenix's for DIG. He has had games all over the spectrum and on the games that he is dialed in the team looks like it could make some noise in the postseason, but if he's off, things can get out of control quickly. He has one of, if not the easiest matchup in Ryoma who has struggled this year but it will be up to Fenix on how this game will go down. I think both teams are viable and depending on your lineup construction either team works fine.
Top DIG Plays: Fenix, Johnsun, Dardoch, Aphromoo, V1per, DIG Team
Top 100T Plays: Ssumday, CodySun, Contractz, Poome, Ryoma, 100T Team
Summary
- Favorite stacks: GGS, FLY, significant drop, TL, 100T/DIG
- I believe that GGS and FLY should and will be both chalky but you may be able to get creative with your builds to slot them both in with an okay captain.
- Players are listed in the order that I prefer playing them.
I mentioned this in our RotoBaller Slack chat, but if you guys ever have specific questions I feel as though in LCS where the games are best of one, it can be very hard to look at numbers and try to correlate those numbers to successful lineups. There's a lot more variance in LCS then there is in other leagues because of the fact that teams can't mess up or it costs them a whole matchup, there's no move on to next game until playoffs. Teams play games especially slow in the LCS because of this in my opinion and we see it on the scoreboard with the long, drawn-out games with the low kill totals. But getting back to my main point of this rant. If you have questions, my twitter DMs are open and feel free to @ me in the slack with anything you may have whether it's strategy or 1v1s or just general analysis. Good Luck Everyone!
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