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Welcome back RotoBallers! Thank you for the feedback I got back this week. I'm glad that most of you liked the Independence Day themed article last weeked. However, there will not be any theme today, just straight forward analysis and recommendation for the 7/11/20 KBO DFS slate.
I did wake up early this morning to double-check lineups, which helped me turn a little profit last night. However, with my children now at my mother-in-laws, I will be taking advantage of that fact and I will NOT be waking up when this slate locks at 5:00 AM on Saturday, July 11, 2020.
Therefore, as always, double check the starting lineups if you can. And here is where I usually mention that I will post something if I hear something. However, that will not be happening this evening. But it does happen, so be sure to follow me @MarkStrausberg for my KBO updates, as well as other picks on Twitter if/when I post updates. So we can all start enjoying the weekend, let's get to the slate.
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KBO DFS Pitchers
I'm having a hard time focusing on this slate, as I already got the upcoming football season on the brain. Because I couldn't help but think of this Aaron Brooks. But I am definitely liking this Aaron Brooks (DK $9000, FD $29) tonight....
It took Aaron Brooks until his 4th #KBO start, but he finally walked his first batter of the season (23:3 K:BB on the year) in an otherwise-solid start.
His final line: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 1 HR
All 6 Ks for the former MLB starter:#KiaTigers #SKWyverns @AlexFast8 pic.twitter.com/F7oA05iR5F
— Connor Newcomb (@ConnorNewcomb_) May 23, 2020
Yes, he's issued a few more walks since then. In fact, nine of 'em....in 38 IP. But he's not just a control artist. He's got 62 punch-outs as well. With a 2.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, he is one of the KBO's best pitchers. His advanced stats support his dominance too. He's got a BABIP above .300 and even his FIP is only 2.87. His opponent tonight, Kiwoom, are no pushovers as they have the third most HRs. But they take some pretty big cuts, because they also have the second most strikeouts. Especially in your cash games, don't overthink this one. Yes he's chalky, but start Brooks.
I expect Brooks ownership to be very high, which means you might get the other chalk pick, Mike Wright ($9500, $27), at a lower ownership rate. Wright has a walk rate more than double Brooks, but he also has an easier matchup. LG is pretty much a middle of the pack offense. Wright is solid all around with a 3.63 ERA and 49 Ks. The Dinos have the second highest win probability on the night and Wright should help insure that.
As an SP or a potential GPP play for FanDuel, consider a converted reliever who has pitched beyond the sixth inning just once this season: Chae Hung Choi ($7700, $27). Choi however is 5-2, supported by his 3.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Those ratios are likely to rise as he's been pretty lucky with a BABIP of .245. But not tonight. If he was facing a stronger team, I'd fade him. But he's facing the KT Wiz, who are pitting Hyeong Jun So and his 6.65 ERA against him. Choi is a little expensive on FanDuel, but his average salary makes him a viable pick for tonight.
Other starters to consider are:
- The ultimate GPP play tonight might be Jin Wook Kim ($4000, $21). He has all of 6.2 IP in the last two seasons. We really don't know what to expect, but he's cheap enough on DraftKings that he could be worth the gamble.
- There is so much I don't like about Jong Hoon Park ($8300, $26), but his ratios are far uglier than they should be. He's been unlucky too, with a BABIP of .342. He has the highest K/9 rate (9.82) of anyone on the slate. He's priced a little too high for my tastes, but his strikeouts give him a reasonable floor.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
I'm going to be a little more aggressive tonight with my hitting stacks. I was pretty chalky last week and my pitching recommendations are pretty chalky, so let's mix it up a little. And that starts with a team who has the league's third lowest batting average.
Samsung Lions
The good news is that the Lions have been hitting the ball a lot better lately. Won Seok Lee ($4000, $8), Sang Su Kim ($4800, $8) and Dong Yeop Kim ($3300, $8) have all hit .333 or better their last ten games, led by Kim's 1.149 OPS over the period. But the options don't stop there. Tyler Saladino ($4700) is back after a multi-week injury stint. Before his injury, he batted .327/.486/.582 through 19 games in June. He seems healthy given that he went 2-for-4 last night with two RBI.
Those four hitters are highly likely to be in the lineup tonight. Presuming Seong Gon Lee ($2900, $5 ***FANDUEL MINIMUM ALERT***) joins them, he's a superb salary-saving option. Lee has spent most of the season outside of Samsung's starting lineup. But he's now playing regularly the last couple weeks and is sporting a .375 average and .926 OPS. He's not a one-off play, but definitely worth including in a Samsung stack.
One strong reason for recommending the Samsung stack is because the Lions are currently slated to face Hyeong Jun So. Reminder, So has a 6.65 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Need I say more?
Kia Tigers
While the Lions have been hot at the plate, their fellow wildcats have looked more like kittens. Preston Tucker ($5800, $16) is only hitting .231 his last ten games, but he went long again last night for his 14th homer of the season. Perhaps Tucker borrowed some mojo from Ji Wa Na ($3600, $9) ....
Na Ji-wan hadn’t homered in his last 13 games. He snapped that streak today with an 8th-inning grand slam that secured the win for the Kia Tigers.
It was career HR No. 211 for the 35-year-old slugger and put him over 2,000 total bases for his career.#KBO #KiaTigers @MyKBO pic.twitter.com/tQrPMhWMpv
— Connor Newcomb (@ConnorNewcomb_) July 9, 2020
who also was doing very little the last couple weeks but has now gone yard in each of the last two nights. Hyung Woo Choi ($4900, $13) has been solid lately, but has only one homer so far this month after hitting eight up to that point of the season. Even if he doesn't go long, I expect Choi to make it three nights in a row with double-digit DKFPs.
Chang Jin Lee ($3000, $5 ***FANDUEL MINIMUM ALERT***) is another Tiger worth being on your radar. He missed the first two months of the season, but has hit safely in each of the three games he has played this week. Expect the right handed Lee to be in the lineup tonight against left-hander Seung Ho Lee. Lee is exactly the type of pitcher whom you confidently stack against.
I like both of these stacks for GPPs, but if you want something a little chalkier for you cash games, let's go with obvious Doosan Bears.
Doosan Bears
After hitting a homer two of the three previous nights, Jose Fernandez ($6200, $17) burned me when all he did was go 2-for-4 last night with an RBI. When that's a disappointing night, you know you need to consider starting him. If Fernandez is too pricey for you, consider the far cheaper Joo Hwan Choi ($3900). Choi has been on absolute fire lately. He has not hit for as much power lately, but he has a double-digit hitting streak going and is a strong cash-game play. Jae Hwan Kim ($5500, $17) is pricier than Choi, but makes for a solid GPP pick. He too has a double-digit hitting streak going despite no homers this month. However, Kim's home stadium is one of the most spacious in the league.
The Bears are on the road tonight, so don't be surprised when Kim raises his dinger total tonight to a dozen. Jae Il Oh ($4600, $15) continues his torrid July and went long last night. Now hitting .348 with 7 HRs on the seasons, he's a another cheaper option if you refuse to spend for Fernandez. And if you are looking for a more affordable SS, you could do a lot worse than Jae Ho Kim ($3500, $8).
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- LG Twins SP Min Ho Lee has been very lucky this season. Between a .247 BABIP plus a FIP two runs higher than his ERA, some negative regression is coming. And it could all happen tonight against the NC Dinos. The surface stats might keep some from stacking the Dinos. But the advanced stats make the Dinos another chalky stack tonight.
- Don't be surprised if many pivot to the SK Wyverns who could easily give neophyte Jin Wook Kim a rough initiation.
Good luck in your KBO DFS lineups tonight!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
