RADIO
Regardless of format, goalies are one of the biggest factors in determining a pretender vs. a championship winning fantasy team. While getting by with subpar goaltending is possible, it's generally always best to stack up on at least one top goalie in most formats. The most important key factor in determining a goalie's fantasy value, like most positions in all fantasy sports, is the amount of usage they're going to get in games. While there are goaltenders who have the skills to provide excellent stats, the situations they are put into can hinder or increase their value. Some of these factors can include the quality of the backup goaltender, the quality of defenseman on the team, and the amount of scoring output that can be produced by the team the goalie plays for.
Finding a goalie like Andrei Vasilevksiy who will easily get 60+ starts a season, has an excellent defensive staff, along with a team that can score a ton of goals, can be quite the challenge and this is why his value remains so high. So unfortunately for most drafted goalies, not all three conditions can or will be met. This can lead to high-volume starters with extremely low value due to a defense full of holes or an anemic offense. In this article, we will discuss the impact that a defense has on a goaltender's fantasy value and showcase five different NHL goaltenders that are burdened by a bad team defense.
As a preface, depending on your league, goalies with bad defenses may not actually be a bad thing. Leagues that count saves as a stat can actually get immense benefits from goaltenders with bad defenses as often or not, a bad defense can allow up to 40 shots a night which will, in turn, result in lots of saves. Now obviously with more shots against comes more goals against so advance at your own risk.
Five Fantasy Goaltenders Who Suffer From Subpar Defenses
Craig Anderson (OTT - G)
Craig Anderson has always been a tough fantasy read for as long as he's been in the league. He's often been referred to the San Francisco Giants of goaltending. Great one year, terrible the next. After putting up a 25-11-4 record with a .926 save percentage in the 2016-2017 miracle year that the Senators made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, he suffered immensely in 2017-2018 putting up a 23-25-6 record and a .898 save percentage. With obvious locker room issues being brought to the spotlight now, it seems clear that nobody on the Senators was in their right state of mind to be winning hockey games. While a new season has come and moves have been made, the loss of Erik Karlsson on the blue-line is enough to sink Anderson's value by a dramatic amount. Thomas Chabot is still far too inexperienced to be trusted as a number one defenseman despite his top-two ceiling and Cody Ceci has still not proved to the Senators that he can play at a top-four defenseman level. The Ottawa Senators defense, as a result, will almost certainly be near the league bottom, despite it being a year where Anderson is projected to play well. The Senators ranked 30th in goals against last season, with 284 goals allowed in 82 games, putting them at 3.46 goals allowed per game and these numbers were with Erik Karlsson. Without Karlsson, these abysmal numbers could take a turn for the worse. Anderson is now also 37, turning 38 in May so with age not on his side much longer, fantasy owners could expect to see dwindling results and Mike Condon picking up more starts in the foreseeable future. For now, he's a goalie to be avoided unless one is absolutely desperate for starts.
Henrik Lundqvist (NYR - G)
Henrik Lundqvist has been a dominating force in the NHL ever since entering back in 2005-2006 with the New York Rangers, however, the New York Rangers blueline doesn't provide much in giving Lundqvist a chance to succeed. The Rangers have made it clear to the fans that they are now entering a rebuild, and with a rebuild, comes lots of losses. While Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk look quite promising on the blue-line along with Kevin Shattenkirk leading the way, the personnel lacks defensively minded blueliners. With Marc Staal and Adam McQuaid projected to play on the second defensive pairing this year, Lundqvist will have to stand on his head like he normally does to provide fantasy owners good value. He put up a 26-26-7 record last season with a 2.98 goals against average and a .915 save percentage, which considering his situation, is quite respectable. The Rangers ranked 28th in goals against with 263 against or 3.21 goals against per game with a relatively similar lineup. While Lundqvist does suffer from a bad defense, he has absolutely no risk of losing his starting spot this year and will most likely get 60+ starts this season keeping him relevant in most fantasy formats. Expect not-so-great goals-against average numbers (GAA) along with a decent save percentage (SV%) and high volumes of saves (SV).
Carey Price (MTL - G)
Along with Lundqvist, Carey Price has been a force to be reckoned with between the pipes and has had his names in top goaltenders of all time discussions. However, things have changed lately and the Montreal Canadiens have put him in a position to fail, leaving his numbers to be not as great as they used to be. After a very successful season in 2016-2017 where he compiled a 37-20-5 record with a 2.23 goals against average and a .923 save percentage, his numbers suffered in the 2017-2018 season. He accumulated a 16-26-7 record with a 3.11 goals against average and a .900 save percentage. This left many fantasy owners last season who drafted Price near the first or second round extremely disappointed. This comes mainly at the result of the Canadiens lacking any sort of legitimate first line center along with a weak defensive core. The Habs are also projected to be without Shea Weber for another 3-4 months at least, putting them up to the All-Star break without their best defenseman. While Victor Mete has shown tremendous promise and the blueline consists of veteran defenseman like Jeff Petry and Karl Alzner who have proved to be responsible in their own end, the lack of an offensive threat especially after trading Max Pacioretty has and will result in the Canadiens being hemmed in their own defensive zone for extended periods of time. The Canadiens ranked 25th last season in goals against with 258 goals allowed or 3.15 goals allowed on average per game. Price will still remain a top goaltender choice due to his sheer talent in net, however, know going into the draft that he will provide a large volume of saves along with an abysmal goals-against average.
Cam Talbot (EDM - G)
Many of the other goaltenders on this list so far have had seasons of true promise previously, but failed to deliver last season and no goaltender fits that bill better than Cam Talbot. Talbot erupted onto the scene in 2016-2017 putting up a 42-22-8 record with a .919 save percentage and a 2.39 goals against average, starting in a mind-boggling 73 games. His numbers however dropped, as he now in 2017-2018 put up a disappointing 31-31-3 record with a .908 save percentage and a 3.02 goals against average. The Edmonton Oilers roster is very reliant on offense rather than defense and mainly consists of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doing most of the offensive work. While Oscar Klefbom looks to be blossoming into a defenseman that the Oilers can come to trust in the future and Adam Larsson providing excellent defense in his own zone, the lack of depth outside of these two draws concerns. The Oilers finished 27th in the league in goals against last season with 262 allowed or 3.20 goals per game. Majority of Talbot's value comes from his volume of shots and starts, along with the Oilers having an offense that can keep the puck out of the Oilers defensive zone for large sums of time. Talbot remains a solid high volume goalie option in fantasy with wins upside as well but may struggle when it comes to providing goals-against-average for owners.
Wild Card Pick: Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK - G)
There's no denying what the Vegas Golden Knights did in their inaugural 2017-2018 season was absolutely phenomenal. To go from an expansion team that many had easily finishing dead-last in the NHL, to almost winning the Stanley Cup is something no team may ever be able to accomplish again in history. That being said, there are questions how much of this is actually repeatable and whether or not the Golden Knights were just a fluke. After trading for Max Pacioretty, they are proving to be a very offensive threat in the NHL, but still have the exact same defensive core from last season and will be without Nate Schmidt for 20 games due to a performance-enhancing drug ban. While Colin Miller and Shea Theodore have both shown upside for the club, the initial "your team didn't want you" motivation could possibly be wearing off for the group of defenseman. Fleury finished the year with a phenomenal 29-13-4 record, a .927 save percentage, and a 2.24 goals against average, however, many also question how sustainable Fleury's production was. At 32 years old, Fleury easily put up the best season of his career with the Golden Knights after over a decade of playing with the Pittsburgh Penguins. It should be noted that the Golden Knights defense doesn't exactly fit the parameters of subpar, but the Golden Knights will have lots of expectations going into the upcoming season and it may be unrealistic to trust one season of stats from this defensive group. Time will tell for the Golden Knights, but for now, Fleury remains as a solid, yet risky option at goaltender with a very high upside for wins.
