Do you know what week 15 means? Or, what it represents, rather? It essentially represents the "Wednesday-Thursday" period of the fantasy season - in that, When week 15 comes to a close, we'll be completely into the second half of the season. The other side!

What could that mean? Hopefully, from a DFS standpoint, it means less players sitting out for rest and, perhaps, tighter rotations that give starters and key contributors more minutes on the court.

Before I get further off on a tangent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore. Let's take a look.

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DFS Value Risers - Week 15

Kevin Durant (SF/PF, GSW)

Oh, the joys of jumping at the opportunity to roster a super-star when they return from absence. The price drop in this situation is fantastic, and far too good to not take advantage of. Overall, the price has dropped $1,000 from the start of the month (with a few rises in the midst), and he stands to crush value in most situations, as he is one of the least match-dependent players in the league. For the season, he's averaged 1.4 points per minute on DraftKings, and at his current price, he essentially just needs to play with his average production for 32-34 minutes, and he's paid off his price tag. An efficient shooting night could lead to a situation where he pays off 7-8 times his price implied value.

Kelly Olynyk (PF/C, MIA)

Olynyk has only reached or surpassed his price implied value (on DraftKings) in 33% of the games he's played this year. However, when he does beat that implied total, he tends to crush it. In short, there aren't many players that profile quite as perfectly as a GPP-type than ol' Kelly O. When Miami was without several key contributors over (roughly) the last two weeks, we saw Olynyk's production rise (a game-by-game chart still looks like a roller coaster's path, but with higher peaks and valleys than normal) and his price drastically increase. He was essentially off the board entirely - at his peak price, he offered almost no value - even in tournaments. Now that he's back at the point where he could give us 8-9 times his price in value, he's worth a shot or two in tournament formats.

 

DFS Value Fallers - Week 15

Skal Labissiere (PF/C, SAC)

This one pains me to write a little bit. Skal is an exciting offensive player with the skill set that makes him a threat on that end of the court every time he takes the floor. He's also made the most of the small run of minutes he gets a game, with production of 0.94 DraftKings points per minute on the floor. He's got a below average PER at 15.6, but he makes up for that (in fantasy) with a Usage rate around 20%. The problem, now that he's seeing an uptick in minutes and production, is that his price has increased $2,000 since the start of January. His production over the last two games would pay off his new price, but the upside (plus-value) is limited more, and the minutes are not likely to stay in the upper 20's. Zach Randolph will be back in the rotation soon, and when he returns, Labissiere will likely go back to his 18-22 minutes range - which would make paying off this price very tough to do. He'd need an incredibly efficient shooting night, and that's not something we should bank on at this point. My suggestion is to monitor his role over the next week or so. At which point, we should know if the minutes increase is here to stay (not banking on it) and/or the price will have come down to a more reasonable figure for a guy who's minutes are far from guaranteed.

Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF, MIN)

Mr. Wiggins has scorched value in three of his last four games. Not surprisingly, his price has skyrocketed up to $7k. Unfortunately this price point has gotten much too steep to pay, especially with Jimmy Butler's return from injury looming. In the case with Wiggins and Butler, Wiggins didn't see minutes increases with Butler sidelined, but he did post a much, much higher Usage rate - and destroyed value with efficient shooting nights. If you've been paying any attention to this Minnesota squad over the month of January, you've noticed that Butler has asserted himself as the alpha on that offense, with Wiggins playing second or third fiddle. Seeing as Wiggins fantasy production his highly reliant on shooting volume - which is set to decreased when Jimmy returns - it's best not to use him until the price comes back down. Using him while Butler remains out is certainly fine, but I see much less chance of him providing tournament/plus value at this price point.

 

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