RADIO
Congratulations to those that have made the finals of their fantasy leagues. Those that have made it this far should be proud of this accomplishment. That being said, all fantasy owners want to win their league’s championship. There is a ton of advice on who to start in the finals, but there is a reason why fantasy owners have made it this far. They are able to make the most sense out of playing matchups versus playing their top players.
If owners in the finals continue their weekly lineup process, they should have no regrets about who they play in their lineup. That being said, it’s always a good idea to check how certain teams are trending heading into the fantasy finals.
This week’s Smashmouth revisits two offensive lines that were previously reviewed, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ll take a look at some of the players that fantasy owners may have questions about starting in their finals and determine if they can be trusted. Is Kareem Hunt really back? Can Philip Rivers bounce back after an awful Week 15 to deliver fantasy goodness in Week 16? Those questions answered and more below.
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Offensive Line to Watch - Los Angeles Chargers
Let’s revisit our first of two offensive lines from earlier in the season, the LA Chargers. Safe to say there has not been much consistency from this group throughout the season save for left tackle Russell Okung. Okung has turned back the clock so to speak this season, demonstrating he still has a lot left in the tank grading out at a 78.1 on the season according to Pro Football Focus. He’s been the Chargers best offensive lineman by far this season grading out 13 points higher than the next best performer, left guard Dan Feeney. Okung did miss part of their Week 15 game only playing 39 out of 64 snaps. Fantasy owners need to make sure Okung is in the lineup or there could be some major issues protecting the blindside of Philip Rivers. Sam Tevi came in for Okung and was sub-par.
Not only could the left tackle position possibly be a big issue for the Chargers in Week 16 against the Jets, but the right tackle position has been a mess for the entire season. The combination of Joe Barksdale and Michael Schofield have graded out as Pro Football Focus’ number 57 and 65 ranked offensive tackles respectively in 2017. They have been wildly inconsistent in both the pass and run game, especially Barksdale. Barksdale has been passable in pass protection (pardon the awful pun), grading out at a 71.9 this season according to PFF, but has been a liability in the run game. During this second quarter run, Barksdale and right guard Kenny Wiggins are unable to generate vertical movement on the down linemen for the Chiefs. Without that movement the pulling guard and tight H-back are unable to create a seam for Melvin Gordon to attack. This run goes nowhere.
For as bad as the previous effort was, the offensive line as a whole performs a lot better on this zone run in the first quarter. This time the combination of Barksdale and Wiggins do their job. Wiggins is able to cut off the down lineman, giving Melvin Gordon an easy read to get to the second level. As Wiggins is securing the first level, Barksdale helps secure Justin Houston on the first level and then climbs to the second level to allow Gordon to scamper for a 10 yard gain.
This is the maddening part about the Chargers offensive line this season, in certain instances they can perform admirably, but for the vast majority of the attempts, Gordon is being met in the backfield. The Chargers offensive line ranks 25th in Stuffed percentage according to Football Outsiders meaning Chargers running backs were being met at the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage the seventh most in the NFL.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: Philip Rivers
Coming off one of his worst outings of 2017, fantasy owners should be confident in Philip Rivers in Week 16. The Jets have surrendered over two passing touchdowns and over 283 passing yards per game over their last three outings. The Jets defensive line also ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate on the season at 5.8% of pass attempts. Rivers should be a safe QB1 as touchdown favorites in Week 16.
Trust: Melvin Gordon
Melvin Gordon may not find a ton of success on the ground against the Jets top-10 defensive line according to Football Outsiders adjusted line yards. Where a lot of Gordon’s success will come from will be in the passing game just like in Week 15. Gordon will face the number 24 DVOA pass defense against running backs according to Football Outsiders. Couple that Austin Ekeler’s season ending injury and Gordon has a higher than normal floor for Week 16.
Offensive Line to Watch - Kansas City Chiefs
After a few weeks of sub-par play, the Chiefs have started to find the rhythm that made then a dangerous offense earlier in the season. One of the biggest changes for the better has been the change at center due to the season-ending injury to Mitch Morse. Zach Fulton has taken over and provided more consistent play at the position than Morse from earlier in the season. Fulton has been particularly effective in the passing game, grading out at 87.3 as pass protector according to Pro Football Focus. Fulton, along with right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif have been a solid tandem in the middle of the Chiefs offensive line. Tardif has been extremely effective as a puller as well. Early in the first quarter the Chiefs run the one-back power scheme with precision. Tardif is given a clear runway to climb to the second level of the Chargers defense thanks to the front side blocks of Fulton and left guard Bryan Witzmann. Kareem Hunt is able to get to the second level for a near double digit gain on 2nd down.
The Chiefs continue to exploit the left side of the Chargers defense later in the first quarter. This time both Witzmann and Duvernay-Tardif both pull to the left with Witzmann kicking out Melvin Ingram. Tardif then paves the way for Hunt to get to the second level for another strong gain.
Just as all good teams do, they go back to what works. They go back to the one-back power scheme that was successful in the first half. Again, Witzmann is able to get to the second level and cut off the linebacker scraping over the top to make the tackle on Kareem Hunt. Tardif pulls and gets a good piece of the linebacker filling the whole allowing Hunt to waltz into the second level.
It certainly seems like the Chiefs offensive line has improved by subtracting the underperforming Mitch Morse.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: Kareem Hunt
After a lull through the middle part of the fantasy season, Kareem Hunt has found his way once again into the hearts of fantasy owners. The matchup for Hunt isn’t the best heading into Week 16 as the Dolphins defensive line ranks in the top 10 in both Football Outsiders Power Success and Stuffed metrics meaning their defensive line is near dominant near the line of scrimmage. Where Hunt can do his damage is in the second level as Miami is 31st in the league in 2nd level yards according to Football Outsiders. If Hunt is able to get past the impressive defensive front, he should be able to explode on the ground.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
3) New Orleans Saints
4) Dallas Cowboys
5) Atlanta Falcons
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31) New York Giants
30) Seattle Seahawks
29) Houston Texans
28) Indianapolis Colts
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
