RADIO
Welcome back, daily fantasy community. It was another wild week in the association, so there's much to breakdown. The wildness is becoming so common, it's starting to become the norm. The good thing is that, unlike fads, wild basketball can't be ruined just because it becomes a regularity - it's always going to be wildly entertaining. The talent level in the league is tremendous and it's improving the daily fantasy basketball game and making it more difficult all at once, as rotations get wider to adapt to the influx of young talent.
Before I get further off on a tangent on the young talent, here are three players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and three others who have become too cheap to ignore.
Let's take a look.
DFS Value Risers - Week 9
Rudy Gobert (C, UTA)
Look, Gobert's recent performances have left something to be desired and I get that. But, as I look at his super low current price, I can't help but be reminded of all the times he's put up 50+ point performances at the fraction of the ownership percentage than his center peers are usually rostered at. The Jazz have a bit of an offensive identity crisis to figure out - do they want to play fast or slow? - and until his offensive role returns or is more solidified, I would still avoid Gobert in cash. However, he is absolutely worth consideration in tournaments. Getting a center who is capable of racking up blocks and steals for under 7.5K is a real steal, and could certainly alter some big tournaments.
Eric Gordon (SG, HOU)
The early-season, really impressive Eric Gordon disappeared for a while there, but I think it's *safe* to say he is back. This is one of those unique situations where the return of a another guard (in this case, Chris Paul) who eats up minutes and Usage has actually benefited the other guards. Now that Gordon can return to the second unit and really be relied upon for his offense, we're going to see some impressive outputs from him once again. Gordon has managed to hit value in each of his last three games, impressively doing so by only taking a few shots in each contest. He's no stranger to getting everyone involved - which seems to be the theme for Houston this year - and in doing so I think he should be able to hit value in his current price range with relative ease. He's a good cash game play with the game context is right, and while the price is still in the 5K and below range across the industry, he should be in tournament consideration.
Evan Turner (SF, POR)
Turner's role with this Portland team is tough to figure out. Many basketball pundits have speculated that he isn't the right fit for the direction this offense is headed, and quite a few have guessed he will be traded before the deadline. Until that time, though, I like the opportunity we have in front of us for tournament play. Turner is the minimum price or near-minimum on every site, and a look through his game logs reveals he's put up more than 25 fantasy points five times in the last month. To put that in perspective, that's five times he would be giving us nearly 10x with his current price tag. The minutes uncertainty takes him out of cash consideration and gives merit to the price decrease, but there is an advantage to be found here in large tournaments.
DFS Value Fallers - Week 9
Dwight Howard (C, CHA)
The Dwight birthday game and the extra minutes he's been grabbing over the last week were great for that time, but this price hike is pretty steep. On average, he is priced up more than $1,000 across the industry and some places, like Fanduel, it's even worse. With Frank Kaminsky temporarily banged up, Cody Zeller sidelined and a few guards and wings playing out of position, Dwight was seeing his minutes and Usage climb up tremendously. With Charlotte's health returning, the reality is that effectively ends the Dwight era. When it's all said and done, his only tournament altering night was his birthday, when he pulled down 20 boards to go with 25 points and recorded a miraculous six blocks. When his price comes down again, he'll be worth the occasional tournament dart. Until that time, say no to Dwight.
Kenneth Faried (PF, DEN)
I enjoyed the time we were able to roster Faried at a very low price, knowing he was going to likely play 30+ minutes and be more involved in the offense than usual. Those day, unfortunately, are over. Sure, Paul Millsap is still sidelined, but Nikola Jokic will be back shortly and the other nagging injuries that were derailing the backcourt's offensive strides have all healed. What does this mean for Faried? Uncertain minutes, a reduced offensive role, and less touches per game. Denver seems to have changed their offensive pace as well, which never bodes well for a traditional power four like
Faried. This role and minutes reduction is happening right now, but we are still forced to pay a relatively absurd amount for Faried if we want him now. At this price point and with little to no offensive influence, he isn't use-able in any format.
Jonathon Simmons (SF, ORL)
For some reason or another (it's rarely been based on strong output), Simmons price is high and continues to rise. When Aaron Gordon was banged up and Evan Fournier was completely sidelined, the price increase was very warranted - we see Simmons' minutes and Usage rate increase when Gordon and Fournier are off the floor. Now that the team is back to full health, we need to see a price plummet before we can trust Simmons in cash again (right now, he's worth a dart in fantasy, but even in tourneys this price point makes me a little queasy). The minutes have stayed high, but he's managed to reach salary based expectations in just one of his last five games, and the 40+ point plateau has only been reached once since November 13th. Pass on Simmons for the time being.
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