July 11, 2017

Sam Dupuy profiles New York Giants running back (RB) Paul Perkins as a fantasy football sleeper for 2017. He could be a draft value based on current ADP.

The renewed focus on running backs this season is leaving many fantasy owners looking for bargains in the middle rounds. More than likely, finding the right RB2/flex play will make the difference in many leagues.

Throughout the majority of the 2016 season, Paul Perkins was irrelevant to both the New York Giants offense and fantasy owners. As a fifth-round rookie, his lack of production was not a surprise. However, Perkins' strong finish to the season has placed him on the fantasy radar for 2017.

We have only seen a glimpse of what Perkins can offer from a fantasy perspective, but here's what to expect from him in the upcoming season.

The Perks of Owning Perkins

Perkins is the Starting Running Back

Rather than encourage a sense of competition for the starting running back job, Giants coach Ben McAdoo has publicly stated that Perkins will be the starter. This move was likely made in order to boost the confidence of Perkins prior to the season, allowing him to move forward and have the entire offseason to work as the starter. This move should not only increase the confidence of Perkins, but also the confidence of fantasy owners. Perkins is a locked in starter for the early down role with the potential of being a three-down back. Giants running backs coach Craig Johnson affirmed this possibility, stating that Perkins can handle all "three phases" (rushing, receiving, and blocking). Perkins has little competition for early down touches (neither Orleans Darkwa or Wayne Gallman present much risk currently) and has the potential to split third-down duties with Shane Vereen. It appears that Perkins will have a hefty workload for the 2017 season, giving him low-end RB2 potential based on volume alone.

Perkins Will Find his Rhythm

As expected from a fifth-round rookie, Perkins struggled to produce throughout much of the season. He only finished the season with 456 yards on 112 carries (4.1 average yards per carry), while failing to find the end zone a single time. Those numbers by no means warrant a solid rookie season, but the way Perkins finished the season does provide evidence that he can produce as a starting running back. Perkins closed out the season by breaking his single game rushing total in five consecutive games (38 yards, 45 yards, 56 yards, 68 yards, and 102 yards). His improvement throughout the season is encouraging for his 2017 season outlook, and a full offseason of work as the starter should allow him to build off of his strong finish to the 2016 season. Giants running backs coach Craig Johnson also stated that Perkins "ended last season like a guy that is ready to take over the job". Perkins obviously impressed the coaching staff with his play late in the season, and I expect him to continue to improve as he gains more experience and confidence in the offense.

The Offense will Create Opportunity for Perkins

The Giants offense struggled a season ago, finishing 27th in scoring offense and 23rd in yards per game. The team aimed to fix those struggles in the offseason as they signed free agent wide receiver Brandon Marshall and drafted rookie tight end Evan Engram in the first round. These additions will not only help open up the passing offense, but also create more opportunities for Paul Perkins in the running game. Opposing defenses will be weary of stacking the box with Marshall, Engram, and returning wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard on the outside. Until Perkins can prove that he can beat a defense's game plan, he will be the least of the worries for opposing defensive coordinators, which will give him more opportunities to run in seven-man fronts. The focus of coverage on the many weapons of the Giants will allow him to have an impact as a receiver out of the backfield as well, where he totaled 162 yards on 15 receptions a season ago. Perkins should be able to take advantage of the lack of attention that he will draw and produce respectable numbers both on the ground and as a receiver this season.

2017 Expectations

Paul Perkins is not going to be a league-winning steal in the draft for you this season. He has not shown the ability or consistency to warrant such a claim. However, he will have the volume needed to be a low-end RB2 this season. According to Fantasyfootballcalculator.com, his current ADP is 69. Spending a sixth-round pick on an unproven player may seem like a reach to many, but Perkins should return his value to you at that draft position.

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