August 2, 2017

Sam Dupuy projects the value of three high-profile NFL running backs for fantasy leagues in 2017. These RBs may be draft sleepers or busts in fantasy drafts.

There is one guarantee that can be made about the fantasy football season: there will be players who boom and players who bust. Many of us, myself included, have had our fantasy dreams crushed by a disappointing season from a player who we expected to perform at a high level (I still cringe at the name Eddie Lacy). On the other hand, many of us have experienced the great feeling that accompanies owning a breakout fantasy star.

There are often cues before the season, either via in-house rumblings or a change in team demographics, that can hint at which players are more likely to outperform their expectations and which players are more likely to underperform their expectations.

Let's take a glance into some of the offseason news and see which running backs are likely in line for a boom or bust 2017 campaign.

Three Player Predictions for RB

Ty Montgomery Solidifies Himself as a RB1

A year ago receiver-turned-running-back Ty Montgomery took hold of the starting running back position for the Green Bay Packers in what seemed like a move of desperation. Eddie Lacy had battled injuries for much of the season and was not very effective when he was on the field. This paired with the atrocious 2.3 yards per carry of James Starks gave the Packers no other option but to try the versatile receiver out in the backfield. Montgomery did not disappoint when given opportunity, putting together a solid stat line in limited action of 457 rushing yards and 348 receiving yards. He also proved to be on of the most elusive and explosive backs in the league, averaging a would-be league-high 5.9 yards per carry had he eclipsed 100 attempts. The Packers let Lacy walk this offseason with confidence in Ty Montgomery as the team's starter.

Montgomery's 2016 success is only a glimpse of the fantasy impact he can have after a full offseason of work. He has beefed up to 220 pounds in order to be more durable and run between the tackles. With Aaron Rodgers commanding his offense, Montgomery also has a solid PPR floor with high upside. The Packers did bring in rookies Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones to compete with Montgomery, but as of now they pose little risk to his fantasy value. If Montgomery could succeed a season ago on instincts alone, look for him to make a push as a RB1 this season in a high-powered offense with little competition for touches.

Verdict: Boom

Jay Ajayi Flops in Third Season

The "Jay Train" took the NFL by storm in his second season by being the first running back since 2002 to rush for 200 yards in consecutive games. Just for good measure, he added a third 200-yard performance later in the season.  These fantasy explosions have landed him in the late first to early second round of many drafts this season; however, it's time to pump the brakes on the Jay Train.  Aside from his three 200-yard outbursts, Ajayi only rushed for 648 yards on 175 carries, a measly 3.7 yards per carry and 49.8 yards per game. He also failed to score in eight games last season. Another concern with Ajayi is his injury history, which could rear its ugly head if he plays on pace to receive at least 350 carries as Dolphins' coach Adam Gase has stated.

The opportunity should be there for Ajayi if he stays healthy, but he has not proven that he can have success on a weekly basis as he struggled mightily against any defense not ranked in the bottom eight last season. While his potential is intriguing for many fantasy owners, his inconsistency should prove costly to anyone who counts on him as their RB1.

Verdict: Bust

Ameer Abdullah Finishes the Season a Top 15 Running Back

The outlook on Ameer Abdullah has been extremely dynamic over the past two seasons. Before his first NFL carry he was the center of the offseason hype train, going as high as the third round in many fantasy drafts. After a lackluster rookie season, the expectations were tempered for Abdullah.  He started off the season very strong before his season-ending injury week two against the Tennessee Titans. Through the first two games last season Abdullah showed the flashes that had once excited fantasy owners, totaling 101 rushing yards (5.6 average), 57 receiving yards (11.4 average), and one TD.

With Abdullah now healthy, early reports out of Detroit are that he is now the feature back in the offense. Reporter Tim Twentyman has stated that the Lions have a "different offense" when Abdullah is in, indicated by his versatility and quick burst in the open field.  Abdullah appears to be in line for a very hefty workload this season, both in the rushing and passing game. The Lions offense, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, has very high fantasy potential for skill players. Look for Abdullah to take advantage of his opportunity and finish the season a top 15 fantasy back, approximately 10 spots higher than his current ADP.

Verdict: Boom

More 2017 Fantasy Football Busts & Overvalued Draft Picks