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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 7 of the fantasy baseball season. For a complete list, check out our premium tool, as explained below.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a glimpse at one of our advanced tools:

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

 

Contact Rate Risers

Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - 90% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

If Bour's name looks familiar in this space, it should. Just two weeks ago, he shows signs of breaking out with a huge six-RBI game and was mentioned as a contact riser, as well as a corner infield waiver wire pickup. Bour has continued to improve to the point he is our biggest riser of the week. What's changed? He's now hitting better against lefties (.273) than righties (.252), although only one of his eight homers have come against left-handers. Bour is on fire in May, so don't hesitate to use him as a streaming option while he's hot. He is available in 88% of Yahoo leagues.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) - 91% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Pederson is another left-handed slugger who is making much better contact, although with far worse results. He is cutting down on the strikeouts, but is only hitting .192 in the past week. He does hit lefties worse than righties, but only by 34 points this season. He is performing far worse in terms of his home/road splits, with a .184 average at home oddly enough. This is where I remind you that none of that matters if he doesn't start going deep really soon, because Pederson hasn't homered since Opening Day. Without power stats, it doesn't really matter how much contact he is or isn't making when it's all basically long flyouts.

Ian Desmond (OF, COL) - 83% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

It's a bummer that Desmond still hasn't claimed 1B eligibility in Yahoo leagues and might not ever see the position if Mark Reynolds keep producing. Still, at least he's coming around with the bat now that he has gotten to shake off some rust. A rise in contact rate may be deceiving since he barely has two weeks of at-bats under his belt, but it's definitely worth noting that he's hitting .360 in the past week. Desmond hasn't taken full advantage of the home cookin' at Coors Field yet, but he has hit safely in six of the last seven games with a pair of doubles, two RBI and a steal. Now that the preseason hype has died down on this free agent acquisition, it could be time to invest cheaply.

Jonathan Lucroy (C/1B, TEX) - 100% contact rate last seven days (+8%)

You'll find Lucroy's name at the bottom of this week's risers list because his eight-point jump wasn't as high as several others. The number 100 does jump off the page, however, as Lucroy seems to finally have found his All-Star form. It's been a week since Lucroy struck out and he's only done so once in the last 13 games. He's now hitting .361 in the month of May. The power hasn't come around quite yet, mainly because he's at a career high 53.8% ground-ball rate, but that should normalize over time. As the weather heats up in Texas (it already has, trust me), so will Lucroy. Now might be the time to buy-low before he starts leaving the yard at a higher rate too.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - 53% contact rate last seven days (-19%)

The return of El Santino was cause for excitement, especially when he drove in five runs in his first week back from injury. Nine strikeouts in his last four games show a return to youthful form, however, and his .400 slugging percentage and .140 ISO are not what fantasy owners were looking for. There could be hope, as he homered on Tuesday. Now's the time when Sanchez owners will have their faith truly tested. Are we getting last year's Sanchez back, or more of this year's inconsistency and injury? Resist selling before you get a bigger sample size.

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS) - 62% contact rate last seven days (-9%)

A hot start has now turned into a cold stretch. Moreland may still help owners in OBP leagues due to his strong 13.6% BB% and he is slightly more useful in points league thanks to 15 doubles. He's stuck at two homers, however, and things could get worse since his .333 BABIP is 44 points above his career average. There could be a 20-HR looming still, but those who saw his early April stats as a harbinger of things to come may be changing their tune.

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT) - 71% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

McCutchen was and is still one of the most debated players in fantasy baseball. Surely all his skills haven't eroded, but he isn't helping his case with a declining contact rate that is below league average at 78.6%. To be fair, he's never had a high overall contact rate and his overall plate discipline doesn't look much different than his MVP seasons. It's the lack of hard contact and career-low 14.5% line drive rate that is leading to less productivity among the contact he does make. Cutch will still deliver 20-25 HR and his third stolen base the other day even provides hope for some speed value, but the averages likely aren't coming back.

Starlin Castro (2B, NYY)73% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

Castro's historical second-half woes have already been documented by myself two weeks ago and fellow RotoBaller @hayudi18 even earlier. It may be premature to say he's on the verge of collapse but there are signs he's slowing down. Castro is hitting .227 with six strikeouts and no walks in the past week, although he does have a homer and four RBI. If you've been riding him this far, you may want to wait a bit longer but his trade value likely won't get any higher than it was a week ago.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Lamar Jackson

Removed From Injury Report, Will Return on Thursday
Daniel Gafford

Unlikely to Suit Up Versus Indiana
Tyler Shough

to Start at QB the Rest of the Season
Dante Exum

Out of Action Against Pacers
Jakob Poeltl

Sidelined on Wednesday
Terry McLaurin

Re-Injures Quad, Out for Week 9
Brock Bowers

Practicing in Full, "Looking Great"
Myles Garrett

"No Chance" Myles Garrett Gets Traded
Rico Dowdle

to Become Panthers Featured Back in Week 9?
Aidan Hutchinson

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Lions
Joe Flacco

Week 9 Status in Doubt With AC Joint Sprain
Ziaire Williams

Uncertain for Wednesday
Sam Merrill

Out on Wednesday
Santi Aldama

Iffy for Wednesday's Action
Gabe Vincent

Out for Several Weeks
Marcus Smart

in Danger of Missing Another Contest Wednesday
Cam Skattebo

Facing 4-6-Month Recovery Timetable
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
Cameron Johnson

Considered Questionable for Wednesday
Jakob Poeltl

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
Ausar Thompson

Battling Illness, Questionable for Wednesday
Jake Oettinger

Collects First Shutout of the Season
Chuba Hubbard

Panthers Don't Want To Move Chuba Hubbard
Connor Bedard

Produces First Career Hat Trick
Victor Olofsson

Has Career Night With Five Points
Thomas Harley

Signs Eight-Year Extension With Stars
Shayne Gostisbehere

Suffers New Injury Tuesday
Conor Garland

Joins Canucks' Growing Injury List
Mikael Granlund

to Miss 2-3 Weeks
Obi Toppin

Expected to Miss One Month
Andrew Nembhard

to Miss Third Straight Game Wednesday
Bennedict Mathurin

Out Week-to-Week
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Iffy for Wednesday
Zaccharie Risacher

Listed as Probable Against Nets
Jalen Johnson

Considered Probable for Wednesday
Dillon Brooks

to Remain Out Wednesday
Jalen Green

Could Make His Suns Debut Wednesday
Anthony Davis

Expected to Play Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Listed as Probable for Wednesday
Adam Gaudette

Could Miss Time
John Klingberg

Ready for Action Tuesday
Warren Foegele

to Miss "Some Time"
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
Brett Pesce

Expected to Be Out for One Month
Jake Neighbours

to Miss at Least Five Weeks
Hampus Lindholm

Expected to Return Tuesday
Jacob Markstrom

Returns to Devils Crease Tuesday
Quinn Hughes

Sits Out Second Consecutive Game
Malik Nabers

Should be Ready for Start of Next Season
Lamar Jackson

Says he's "Ready to Go Now"
Isiah Pacheco

Week-to-Week With MCL Sprain
Tyler Shough

Named Saints' Starting Quarterback
Drake Batherson

Picks Up Three Points in Monday's Win
Sidney Crosby

Becomes Ninth NHL Player With 1,700 Points
Michael Kesselring

Expected to Make Season Debut Tuesday
Shayne Gostisbehere

Could Return Tuesday
K'Andre Miller

Expected to Remain Out Tuesday
Pyotr Kochetkov

Close to Returning
Kareem Hunt

Scores Twice in Monday Night Win Over Washington
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Terry McLaurin

Questionable to Return in Week 8 After Aggravating Quad Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
Lamar Jackson

Ravens Expect Lamar Jackson to Play on Thursday Night
Michael Carter

Cardinals Release Michael Carter on Monday
Carson Wentz

to Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
Nico Collins

Trending Toward a Week 9 Return
Puka Nacua

Expected to Practice Wednesday, Play in Week 9
CFB

Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
CFB

Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Christopher Bell

Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season
Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects
Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Ends in No-Contest
Virna Jandiroba

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Mackenzie Dern

Wins Vacant Strawweight Title
Mario Bautista

Gets Outclassed
Umar Nurmagomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jailton Almeida

Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Split Decision At UFC 321
Azamat Murzakanov

Remains Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher A Playable DFS option for Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

is an Intriguing DFS Option For Martinsville
Daniel Suarez

May be Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville This week?
Christopher Bell

Kyle Larson Should Advance to Championship 4
Joey Logano

Don't Expect Joey Logano to Significantly Contend for Championship 4
William Byron

A DFS Must-Start Due to Lap-Leader Points
Ross Chastain

Hail Melon Nostalgia Masks Ross Chastain's Martinsville Mediocrity
Josh Berry

a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points
Brad Keselowski

an Intriguing Martinsville Option
Shane Van Gisbergen

Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power
Carson Hocevar

Lack of Finesse Makes Him a Risky Martinsville Pick
Bryce Harper

Phillies Aren't Planning to Trade Bryce Harper
Bo Bichette

Starting at Second, Batting Cleanup in Game 1 of World Series
Bo Bichette

Makes World Series Roster
Ciryl Gane

Scheduled For A Title Fight
Tom Aspinall

Set for First Official Title Defense
Mackenzie Dern

Can Become The New Strawweight Champion
Virna Jandiroba

Set For UFC 321 Co-Main Event
Mario Bautista

Aims To Extend His Win Streak
MMA

Umar Numagomedov A Favorite At UFC 321
Jailton Almeida

Hopes To Get A Title Shot With A Win
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

In Dire Need Of Victory
CFB

Texas Tech QB Will Hammond Will Start vs. Oklahoma State Saturday
CFB

Kansas State RB Dylan Edwards Out For Sunflower Showdown
CFB

Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson Will Not Play In Week 9
Zack Wheeler

Could be Ready for Opening Day in 2026
William Contreras

Could Need Finger Surgery

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