RADIO
What's up RotoBallers. March Madness is officially here, and RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on the NCAA tournament including a region by region breakdown and some potential sleepers and busts.
Today I'm here to give you a tournament strategy guide - important things to know before filling out your brackets. There's a good chance that by the time you finish this reading this, your bracket will be busted.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
An Important List Before Filling Out Your Bracket
- Vegas knows more than us. If 10-seeded Wichita State is a six point favorite over seventh- seeded Dayton, then that should say something. For bracket purposes, all Wichita State has to do is win the game so you're pretty much getting six free points to take the lower seeded team. Check the spreads before filling out your bracket.
- One-seeds are 128-0 against 16-seeds. Don't be that fool to pick a 16-seed in the 1st round. Although it's great when people take the 16-seed, they lose out on an easy point. Every point matters. It can come back to haunt you.
- Don't tinker. The more you tinker the more you'll regret it. I will fill my bracket out Wednesday evening only once and that will be it. No going back and looking until the brackets lock Thursday at noon.
- Since the NCAA expanded the field from 65 to 68 teams in 2011, one of the First Four teams has went on to win their first round matchup. Last year Wichita State won the first four game and beat 6th-seeded Arizona in the first round. That bodes well for either Kansas State, Wake Forest, Providence, or USC.
Championship Teams
This season in college basketball, there is an upper class, and then everybody else. Here is who I think can win the championship: Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Villanova, Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Kentucky, and Gonzaga. That's it. Nine teams. All those teams have stars. At their best, they are extremely tough to beat.
Does Conference Tournament Success Equal NCAA Tournament Success?
Duke and Michigan are the two hottest teams in the country. They both won four games in four days to win their conference tournament. Does that mean they will continue their hot streak to the NCAA Tournament?
Fivethirtyeight.com posed this question two years ago. They looked at data dating back from 1985. It's complicated and if you really care to find out the process and how they came to their conclusion, you can read it here. If you don't care, like the majority of you reading this and myself, here are their findings:
"This analysis does serve as a warning against putting too much emphasis on the conference tournament relative to a team’s entire body of work, especially when it comes to picking unexpectedly hot conference tournament teams to go further than you’d otherwise predict for teams with their résumés."
There you go. Conference tournaments for the big time conferences mean nothing. They are just another cash grab for the schools. It doesn't mean Duke won't use their four games in as many days– winning the ACC Championship– to jumpstart an NCAA Tournament run. There is simply no correlation.
The Big Ten Conference
This is a very problematic question for me. Before conference tournament play began, I was sure I was only picking Purdue to make it to Sweet 16. This conference seemed awful, and each time I tried watching a Big Ten game during the regular season, I found myself falling asleep or getting distracted after five minutes.
But after watching several Big Ten tournament games, I stand corrected. These teams are tough and gritty with playmakers that can create their own shot. Some of these teams may win one game, but that's about it. Wisconsin is a dark horse. They return the same exact starting lineup from last year's Sweet 16 run. More on them here.
I will not be looking down upon the Big Ten like I originally planned to.
One Stat to Know
Three-seed UCLA averaged 90 points per game this season, the 6th most points in a season since 2000.
One Final Thing...
Before the tournament starts, I hear countless people saying, "I have the perfect bracket." Stop. You don't. If you're one of those delusional people who thinks they filled out a perfect bracket, and goes around telling people that the day before the tournament, you should know this: You have a higher chance of being attacked by a shark, one in 11.5 million, than filling out a perfect bracket, one in 9.2 quintillion.
Good luck to all!
