🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Poetry in Motion: The Sweet Stroke of Xander Bogaerts

Jackie Bradley Jr. didn't even have the most significant hitting streak on his own team this season. Not hating, just stating. Xander Bogaerts saw his streak end at 26 games last night in Toronto, just short of Bradley's 29, but in reality Bogaerts is the far superior fantasy option in both the short and long term. During Bradley's impressive streak, he notched 44 hits, eight home runs, 30 RBI, 19 R and one steal. Over his past 29 games before Friday's 0-for-4 effort, Bogaerts recorded 46 hits, five home runs, 21 RBI, 24 R, and two steals. Pretty even overall from a fantasy standpoint, but looking back to April we can see that Bogaerts preceded his streak with two separate six-game streaks and an eight-game streak before that. Bradley was hitting a mere. 233 before going on his tear, but Bogaerts was already at .309. Not a big surprise for the 2015 Silver Slugger award winner.

Since the end of his streak, Bradley is down 20 points in AVG and will likely continue to crawl down just below .300, as he was a .294 career hitter in the minors. Remember, just two years ago Bradley only managed a .198 average over 384 at-bats. This made Bradley's streak more newsworthy because it came from an unexpected source. In comparison, Bogaerts' streak shouldn't have been unexpected. In 2014, while Bradley was struggling to stick with the big club, Bogaerts was rated the #2 overall prospect in the minors by multiple publications. He found Major League success pretty quickly, finishing second in the AL with a .320 AVG last season. So, what is the key to his success and can he really sustain his elite production?

Let's start with the obvious. His .401 BABIP is extremely high, but he sustained a .372 BABIP across 613 AB last season, so this isn't uncharacteristically high for him. Bogaerts has dropped his SwStr% each season against MLB pitching, down to 14.5% this season. He has also raised his BB% to 7.3%, up from last year's 4.9%. Basically, he is improving his eye and finding a way to put more balls in play.

Bogaerts lines high strike to center

He knows just where to put 'em (where they ain't).

What's slightly unusual is that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls and yet increasing his average at the same time. Sabermetricians usually value line drives over ground balls, but Bogaerts has seen his LD% drop to 20% and his ground ball rate increase in 2016, his best season so far. His 1.15 GB/FB actually matches last season's ratio, but those grounders are turning into hits for Bogaerts more than expected. This may regulate itself over time, but it seems his selectivity at the plate and tendency to pull the ball without hitting an abundance of fly balls is resulting in quality hits.

Bogaerts grounder hit

This certainly could have gone for an easy out, but didn't. Sorry, I don't have a more clever explanation than that.

More specifically, Bogaerts is pulling pitches on the inside half of the plate at a much higher rate this year. On pitches down and in, he has a .256 AVG/P with a .410 SLG/P. A quick look at his spray chart shows that Bogaerts is pulling a majority of his ground balls, many of them for hits obviously. We often associate ground ball hitters with weak contact, but Bogaerts again is an exception.

Bogaerts lines double on low fastball

In terms of power, Bogaerts may never be a 20+ HR hitter and may not even come close to the mark. Of his six home runs, all have gone to left field even though his fly balls are evenly distributed across the field. It would seem that Bogaerts does not yet possess opposite field power to the point where that HR/FB rate will spike this year. His 11.8% HR/FB seems sustainable, although it is up from last year's rate of 5.3% and his career rate of 7.3%. At best, he will hit 15 HR which seems perfectly acceptable for fantasy purposes when you hit in the neighborhood of .350.

Bogaerts homers to left

Look, he's already leading the league in average. Asking him to hit more homers just seems greedy.

Pitchers who want to adjust to Bogaerts' tendencies will likely start attacking him down and away. On pitches on the lower outside corner of the strike zone, Bogaerts has a 67% Contact%. He isn't registering lower than 87% on any other region of the strike zone. That figure drops down to 63% when he is behind in the count. This isn't a common occurrence as Bogaerts' 16.2% K% is still fairly good.

Bogaerts strikes out

Oh Sonny Gray, where have you gone?

Xander Bogaerts is more than just a streaky hitter or the latest Boston player to catch fire. He has been known as a top prospect for a while, but has seemingly come under scrutinty for not showing more power or living up to unrealistic expectations. The truth is Bogaerts could lead the league in hitting this year and contend to do so for years to come. At the top of a loaded Red Sox lineup, his run scoring (44 - 3rd in MLB) and batting average (.343 - 3rd in MLB) are both elite. Bogaerts is a keeper in the truest sense and should be treated as a prized asset in all fantasy leagues.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Devin Booker

Listed as Questionable for Wednesday
Victor Wembanyama

Remains Out Wednesday
Kyle Finnegan

Tigers, Kyle Finnegan Agree on Two-Year Deal
Bo Bichette

Red Sox Out on Bo Bichette For Now
Karl-Anthony Towns

Back in Action Against Toronto
Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers has a "Very Real Chance" to Start in Week 15
Jason Zucker

Added to Injured Reserve
David Pastrnak

Set to Return Tuesday
Scott Wedgewood

Back Between the Pipes Tuesday
Evgeni Malkin

Lands on Injured Reserve
Jamal Shead

Available on Tuesday, Entering the Starting Lineup
Jordan Kyrou

Out Week-to-Week
Immanuel Quickley

Ruled Out on Tuesday Night
Thomas Harley

Returns to Stars Lineup Tuesday
Martin Necas

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Available Tuesday
Cam York

Out on Tuesday
Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2027 Season
Paolo Banchero

Remaining on a Minutes Limit Tuesday
Michael King

the Mets' Top Rotation Target?
Dru Smith

Will Be Available Tuesday
Pelle Larsson

Will Be Available Against Orlando
Davion Mitchell

Listed as Available for Tuesday
Tyler Herro

Will Be Available Tuesday Against the Magic
Aaron Gordon

Christian Braun Likely Out Until After Christmas
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Could Move Back to Leadoff Spot
Immanuel Quickley

Downgraded to Questionable Tuesday
CFB

Florida, Wisconsin Among Suitors for QB Transfer Kenny Minchey
DK Metcalf

"Moving in the Right Direction" for Week 15
CFB

Bryan Harsin, Justin Wilcox Candidates for Washington State Head Coach Job?
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Agrees to Deal With the Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber

Returning to Phillies on Five-Year Deal
Riley Leonard

Diagnosed With Grade 1 PCL Sprain
Jamison Battle

Unlikely To Suit Up Against Knicks
Derik Queen

Posts Massive Triple-Double In Loss To Spurs
Jacob Toppin

Out For Season After Shoulder Surgery
Ben Sheppard

Out At Least 10 Days With Calf Strain
Miles McBride

Ruled Out With Ankle Sprain Against Raptors
CFB

Ole Miss Hiring John David Baker as Offensive Coordinator
Victor Wembanyama

Travels For NBA Cup Clash Against Lakers
CFB

Ty Howle the Top Target for Virginia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
John Gibson

Secures Third Consecutive Win With Shutout
Nazem Kadri

Bags Three Points as Flames Offense Explodes
Joel Eriksson Ek

Ends Dry Spell With Three-Point Effort
Dennis Hildeby

Records First Career Shutout
Dakota Mermis

to be Evaluated Tuesday
Jacob Middleton

Hurt in Monday's Win
Mats Zuccarello

Exits Early Monday
Jamal Shead

Uncertain for Tuesday
Dru Smith

Questionable to Play Tuesday
Pelle Larsson

Listed as Probable for Tuesday
A.J. Brown

Continues Dominant Stretch With 100 Yards in Monday Night Loss
Saquon Barkley

Rips Off Long Touchdown Run in Monday Night Loss
Shohei Ohtani

to be Used More as Traditional Starting Pitcher Next Year
Yordan Alvarez

to Become Full-Time DH in 2026?
Mason Miller

Padres Plan to Keep Mason Miller in the Bullpen
Ranger Suárez

Orioles Interested in Signing Ranger Suarez
Anthony Volpe

Yankees Don't Expect Anthony Volpe to be Ready in April
Gerrit Cole

Targeting a Return in May/June
Riley Leonard

"Week-to-Week" With Strained Knee
NFL

Patriots-Ravens Week 16 Game Flexed to Sunday Night Football
Omarion Hampton

Making his Return on Monday Night
CFB

Heisman Trophy Finalists Announced on Monday
Justin Herbert

Officially Active Against Eagles
Indianapolis Colts

Colts Bringing Philip Rivers in for a Workout
Justin Herbert

Expected to Start on Monday Night
Trey Benson

Cardinals Could Hold Trey Benson Out Another Week
Jack Roslovic

Not Close to Returning
Jake Walman

to Miss at Least Two More Weeks
Berkly Catton

Out Week-to-Week
Nils Hoglander

Set for Season Debut Monday
Elias Pettersson

Misses Second Straight Game
CFB

Anthony Hill Jr. Declaring for 2026 NFL Draft
CFB

Ryan Walters a Candidate for Tennessee Defensive Coordinator Job?
Trey Hendrickson

Set for Core-Muscle Surgery, Expected to Miss Around Six Weeks
Drake London

Considered Day-to-Day Going into Thursday Night
Jayden Daniels

No Long-Term Concerns for Jayden Daniels
Zach Ertz

MRI Confirms Season-Ending Torn ACL for Zach Ertz
Tee Higgins

Back in the Concussion Protocol
Riley Leonard

Week 15 Status Uncertain Due to Knee Injury
Mike Evans

Could Return on Thursday Night
De'Von Achane

May Require Rest This Week
Daniel Jones

' Season Over With Torn Achilles
Rory McIlroy

Ends 2025 as the Year's Most Unburdened Player
Aaron Rai

Needs to Figure Out Putting Woes This Offseason
Jordan Spieth

Plays Better on Paper in 2025 Than Results Show
PGA

Chris Gotterup Needs to Find Better Touch and Consistency This Offseason
Hideki Matsuyama

Ends 2025 Season With a Bookend Victory
CFB

Tennessee Fires Defensive Coordinator Tim Banks
Scottie Scheffler

Comes Up Just Shy of Hero World Challenge Victory
Merab Dvalishvili

Drops A Decision At UFC 323
Petr Yan

Reclaims Bantamweight Title
Alexandre Pantoja

Era Ends With Gruesome Injury
Joshua Van

Becomes Second-Youngest UFC Champion
Brandon Moreno

Suffers His First TKO Loss
Brandon Moreno

Tatsuro Taira Becomes First Fighter To Finish Brandon Moreno
Henry Cejudo

Payton Talbott Retires Henry Cejudo
Henry Cejudo

Retires After UFC 323 Loss
Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov Vs. Jan Blachowicz Ends In A Majority Draw
Jan Blachowicz

And Bogdan Guskov Fight To Majority Draw
CFB

Texas RB CJ Baxter Entering Transfer Portal
San Francisco Giants

Jeff Kent Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame
Ketel Marte

Red Sox Interested in Trading for Ketel Marte
Kyle Schwarber

Pirates Make Four-Year Offer to Kyle Schwarber
CFB

Mississippi State, Rice Accept Bowl Bids as 5-7 Teams
CFB

Auburn, Florida State, Baylor Among Teams to Decline Bowl Bids
CFB

Rob Aurich Set to Become Nebraska's Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Notre Dame Opting Out of Postseason Amid College Football Playoff Exclusion
CFB

Kendal Briles a Candidate for South Carolina Offensive Coordinator Job
CFB

James Madison Playoff-Bound After Duke Wins ACC Title?
CFB

Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama on College Football Playoff Bubble
CFB

Brent Pry Could Return to Virginia Tech as Defensive Coordinator
Jose A. Ferrer

Mariners Acquire Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals
Harry Ford

Traded to the Nationals
Cody Bellinger

Drawing Interest From the Phillies
MacKenzie Gore

Will the Nationals Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Byron Buxton

Twins Not Planning to Trade Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton
Petr Yan

Looks To Reclaim Bantamweight Belt
Merab Dvalishvili

Set For His Fourth Title Defense
Joshua Van

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fifth Title Defense At UFC 323
Tatsuro Taira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Brandon Moreno

Searches For His Third Win In A Row
Payton Talbott

A Favorite At UFC 323
Henry Cejudo

Set For His Retirement Fight
Jan Blachowicz

Set To Open Up UFC 323 Main Card
Bogdan Guskov

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
CFB

Emmett Johnson Leaving Nebraska for 2026 NFL Draft
CFB

Jam Miller Unlikely to Play in SEC Title Game
CFB

Penn State Expected to Hire Matt Campbell from Iowa State
CFB

Arkansas Targeting Ron Roberts for Defensive Coordinator Job

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP