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We’ve looked at some successes and some not-so-successful (we want to be positive here, so no negative thoughts coming from Future Tense today…) over the last two installments. This time around, we are going to look at some truly surprising performances, starting with a Brewer shortstop that has gone from mediocrity in the PCL to superstar in the AFL.
Surprise Performers Of The AFL
Yadiel Rivera, Shortstop, Milwaukee Brewers
A ninth-round selection out of Manuela Toro High School in Puerto Rico in 2010, Rivera had been advancing through the ranks at a steady pace, but he has yet to ever really excite. An MiLB.com Organization All-Star in 2011 and 2012, Rivera became almost an afterthought in the last three seasons. Opening the year in the Double-A Southern League at Biloxi, Rivera put together respectable numbers in his time there, with a .277 batting average, one home run, 16 RBI, and 23 runs scored in 184 at-bats, and he made his way up to the Pacific Coast League. There, his performance was far less successful, as he hit .238 with one home run, 28 RBI, and 32 runs scored. Oh, and he also had seven appearances in the majors, but I think he would rather forget about those at-bats.
So, it makes perfect sense that he would turn into Tony Gwynn in the AFL. Uh huh. Sure.
Through 11 games with the Arizona Fall League, Rivera is hitting .395 with one home run, 10 RBI, and nine runs scored over 38 at-bats. One huge positive that one can hope carries over into the 2016 season is his significantly-improved strikeout-to-walk ratio. While it was 53:10 in 81 games in the PCL, it is 9:7 in just 11 AFL games – seventy fewer games, but just three fewer walks. Maybe that’s a product of the caliber of the pitching he is facing, or maybe that’s an improved skill he can take away from his time in the desert. We should be able to tell quickly enough next spring, when he returns to the Colorado Springs Sky Sox.
Mac Williamson, Right Field, San Francisco Giants
Now, we can’t say that Williamson wasn’t on anyone’s radar, as MLB.com did have him as the No. 16 prospect in the Giants’ system in 2014 and No. 13 in 2015. Still, that’s not exactly high, nor did his statistics light the world on fire. Williamson split the season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, and his performance at Triple-A was rather underwhelming. In 54 games, Williamson hit .249 with eight home runs, 31 RBI, and 35 runs scored in 189 at-bats, and those are not exactly numbers that are going to have anyone in San Francisco rushing to get in line for his jerseys. However, it was enough to earn a brief stint in the majors.
Through 11 AFL contests, Williamson is hitting .372 with two home runs, six RBI, and nine runs scored. His patience has been outstanding, as he has more walks (8) than strikeouts (6) thus far, and those walks bring his on-base percentage up to .471. Williamson will more than likely return to Triple-A to open the year, but he’s putting himself into contention for a spot in the bigs at some point in 2016.
Nick Travieso, Starting Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds
Now, right off the bat, I should say that Travieso has always been a quality prospect - he was a first round selection by the Reds in the 2012 draft. Still, he has never pitched this good. How good? Through three starts, Travieso has a 1.50 ERA over 12 innings, with a ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio of 13:1, while opposing batters are hitting just .195 against him. The 21-year-old Travieso found himself in the AFL after losing time during the season to injury, and he only made 19 starts in the Florida State League, with 93 1/3 innings. The lack of experience plus his age will have the Reds not in a rush to promote him, but he should open the season at Double-A. In such a hitter-friendly league as the AFL, his success has definitely sped up that timetable.
Jordan Patterson, Left Field, Colorado Rockies
Okay, I promised positivity in the beginning, but not every surprise is a good one. Such is the case with Patterson’s performance at the Arizona Fall League thus far. Ranked No. 23 in the Rockies’ system by MLB.com, Patterson had a solid 2015 regular season, split between the High-A California League and the Double-A Eastern League. With the Modesto Nuts, Patterson hit .304 with 10 home runs, 43 RBI, and 62 runs scored in 303 at-bats over 77 games. Following his promotion to the New Britain Rock Cats, Patterson’s average declined, but he remained a solid contributor, hitting .286 with seven home runs, 32 RBI, 26 runs scored in 185 at-bats over 48 appearances.
So, heading out to the offensive-heavy Arizona Fall League, he should continue to hit, right? Wrong.
Through 11 games, Patterson is hitting just .121, the second-lowest among regular players in the AFL, with no homers, just one RBI, and one run scored. Actually, there is one area where he’s reaching a high percentage – strikeouts, as he has struck out 1/3rd of the time, with 11 strikeouts in 33 at-bats. With this level of ineptitude, it’s hard to see the Rockies deciding that he is ready for Triple-A, so he is likely getting a return ticket to New Britain to open 2016.
Rob Zastryzny, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs
A second-round selection by the Cubs in 2013, Zastryzny looked like he had lots of promise heading into 2015. Before the 2014 season, Baseball Prospectus said the following about him: “The profile is a more a no. 3/4 starter, but Zastryzny has the pitchability and arsenal depth to reach his potential.” For the most part, he lived up to that in 2014, going 4-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 23 starts at the Florida State League, with a very impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio of 110:33 over 110 innings. However, he was fairly hittable, with opposing batters hitting .279 against him, so there were warning signs. Ranked as the No. 14 prospect in the Cubs’ system at the beginning of 2015, Zastryzny struggled significantly in the Double-A Southern League, as he went 2-5 with a 6.23 ERA, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio took a significant hit, with 48 strikeouts and 28 walks over 60 2/3 innings, and opposing batters have hit .310 against him.
Things haven’t gone any better for Zastryzny this fall. On a positive note, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has rebounded greatly, and he has 18 strikeouts and just three walks in 14 innings scattered over four appearances, three as a starter. With that great of a ratio, he should have a lot better results than he does. As of this writing, his record stands at 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA, with three home runs allowed and an opponents’ batting average of .300.
There is no reason to believe that there’s a quick fix here for Zastryzny and that he can get things right back on track in 2016. Look for him to return to Double-A to open 2016, with little to no shot of seeing him in the majors before September 2017.
Brandon Dixon, Second Base, Los Angeles Dodgers
Alright, let’s finish on a high note. A third round selection of the Dodgers in the 2013 draft, Dixon has been almost an afterthought when looking at the Dodgers’ organization, as he doesn’t make the Top 30 Dodgers’ prospects according to MLB.com. The power potential is there, but his struggles at the plate in the Double-A Texas League earned him a two-month demotion to High-A. Between the two levels, Dixon finished the year hitting .263 with nineteen home runs, 68 RBI, and 70 runs scored. His patience at the plate, or rather his lack thereof, is a huge issue, as he struck out 144 times between the two levels while walking just 28 times. This ratio is more pronounced if you look just at his time in Double-A, where he struck out 98 times and walked just 12 times in 336 at-bats.
So, of course it makes perfect sense that he would be one of the best hitters thus far in Arizona. Through nine games, over 35 at-bats, Dixon is hitting .371 with two home runs, eight RBI, and six runs scored. His strikeout-to-walk ratio still is an issue, at 9:2, but a .405 on-base percentage and an OPS of 1.005 allows people to overlook it.
His struggles during the regular season will likely have Dixon back in the Texas League to open the year, but his performance in the desert should mean that he’ll spend less time there, provided he gets off to a hot start, and he should be in Triple-A by the middle of the summer at the latest.
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