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This Week's NFL Matchup Ratings
Each NFL matchup rating is updated at the start of the fantasy football week, using a player’s past performance and future projection weighted alongside defense vs. position data. A 100 matchup rating is average. Lower than 100 is at least a minor matchup to downgrade, while a rating of 100 or higher represents at least a small upgraded matchup. Matchups are updated based on new data each week, including DvP and injury/role changes.
How Our Fantasy Football Matchup Ratings Work
NFL matchup ratings are determined and calculated by
- Fantasy points allowed per position - average fantasy points a defense has allowed to running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends
- Recent player performance/form - total production in recent games, eliminating early-season duds or flukey boom performances
- Pace of Play - average offensive plays per game
- Run/Pass Split - expected opportunity for passers, runners, pass-catchers
- Injuries to key defenders and teammates - accounts for missing starting quarterbacks, wide receivers, elite defensive backs, and pass-rushers
Matchup Rating Scale
- ≥ 110 - Great matchup rating
- 101-109 - Good matchup rating
- 100 - Neutral matchup rating
- 95-99 - Poor matchup rating
- ≤ 94 - Very poor matchup rating
These fantasy football ratings are used to help fantasy managers find the best and worst defensive matchups each week
Defense vs Position (DvP)
The DvP metric is calculated and measures the total and average fantasy points a specific defense has surrendered to each position group, including QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST. Our matchup ratings tool is based on a DvP model.
Quarterback DvP
Quarterback Defense vs. Position data is calculated by the total fantasy points allowed to QBs by a defense, divided by its total number of games played. A defense that has faced a higher percentage of rushing quarterbacks is likely to give up more fantasy points per game to the position. Our matchup ratings tool accounts for this, meaning primary pocket passing quarterbacks do not receive inflated ratings if passing production has not driven the production against a defense.
Running Back DvP
Rushing production and receiving production are weighted for each running back matchup rating. An early-down back with limited receiving usage and upside is not given an inflated rating based on a defense allowing a high number of receptions and receiving yards to RBs. Conversely, running backs who are primarily receivers are not given an inflated rating based only on a defense surrendering high-end pure rushing yards to RBs.
Wide Receiver DvP
Stud wide receivers will maintain high matchup ratings against all defenses, while WRs on the start-sit bubble can be significantly impacted by WR/CB matchups, quarterback injuries, missing or returning teammate impact, and more. Highly-targeted wide receivers remain must-starts, even with the risk of an inefficient performance.
Tight End DvP
Quality of quarterback, red zone usage, and projected game totals heavily influence tight end matchup ratings. Tight ends outside the elite few are heavily dependent on matchups due to the scarcity of production outside the top 6-10
Kicker DvP
Kicker DvP matchups are heavily dependent on the quality of the offense, quality of the opposing defense, weather conditions, and recent form
Team Defense Matchups
The quality of the opposing offense is the most important factor in team defense matchup ratings. Strong defense can be heavily penalized against strong offense, while bottom-end defenses are often viable starts against bottom-end offenses. Use these NFL matchup ratings for streaming defenses
Which Defenses Give Up the Most Points to Wide Receivers?
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Buffalo Bills
- Tennessee Titans
- Houston Texans
- Arizona Cardinals
Using Matchup Ratings for Start/Sit
Lean on RotoBaller’s fantasy football rankings, which can help you decide between players with clear tier differences. Use our NFL Matchup ratings tool as a tiebreaker between players with thin differences in rankings. Never bench clear top-12 options at each position. Instead, use these fantasy football matchup ratings to identify potential sleepers and busts among fringe start-sit options in your QB, RB, WR, TE, Kicker, or Flex spots.
Don’t overthink the matchup for a clear must-start stud and consistent performer. Dud games happen for elite players in tough matchups, but they often overcome them. Sit fringe players in rough matchups. Start fringe players in favorable matchups
Using Matchup Ratings for DFS
For Cash Games, identifying players with high floors in at least favorable matchups is key. Unlike GPP tournaments, there is an emphasis on players with high floors more than elite ceilings. A high floor player with a decent matchup is preferred in these formats, especially when prices and ownership figures aren’t as critical to consider
In GPP tournaments, a great matchup is already priced into the players’ salaries, so using our fantasy football matchup ratings to find mispriced players in undervalued spots based on matchups is a way to get an edge on the field. Great quarterback and wide receiver matchups are often correlated, and stacking a QB-WR in plus spots is key to success in large GPP contests.
Matchup Ratings vs Strength of Schedule
Fantasy football matchup ratings are specific to one week versus one opponent, while strength of schedule data offers insight for a custom range of weeks, or the rest of the season. A player can have a great matchup rating one week but have a difficult strength of schedule over the next four, six, or 10 weeks.
While these are different tools, you can use them in conjunction to identify players to potentially sell high coming off a great matchup, but headed into a rough stretch of matchups.
For example, a running back could draw the 29th-ranked defense against the position in Week 5, but faces three consecutive top-10 defenses against running backs in Weeks 6, 7, and 8. Fringe starters can be sold high if they deliver on the plus matchup.
When Matchup Ratings Mislead You
- Last Season’s Data - roster turnover is significant in the NFL, and role changes, coaching changes, and scheme changes can lead to significantly different outlooks for offenses and defenses any given year. Last season’s data is all that is available early in the year, but it cannot be trusted absolute truth
- Small-Sample Trap - avoid viewing the first two or three weeks of data in a new season as absolute truth. Early-season schedules and matchups are not created equal, so matchup ratings are more dependable as the season goes on
- Blowout Games - matchup rating data is skewed in blowout conditions, as the wide margin on the scoreboard leads to a run-happy game script for one team, and a pass-happy game script for the other. Backups in games also contribute to flawed data
- Strength of Schedule - a defense who surrendered big games to Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson isn’t automatically going to give up a big game to a fringe top-24 fantasy quarterback. On the flipside, a defense that faced three fringe starters at tight ends will statistically look strong against the position on paper, but it doesn’t mean it will create issues for a clear elite stud. Context matters with fantasy football matchup ratings, especially in the first half of the season
Matchup Ratings FAQs
- What are fantasy football matchup ratings?
A: A numerical value given to each fantasy football player evaluating how favorable or disfavorable a defensive opponent is against their position. Matchup ratings help fantasy managers decide who to start, bench, target in DFS, or temper expectations on.
- How are matchup ratings calculated?
A: A player’s recent form, fantasy football projection, opponent stats against their position, key impact injuries to teammates and opponents, and more.
- What is defense vs position (DvP) in fantasy football?
A: Defense vs position is a metric determined by the number of total fantasy points a defense has given up to a specific position and divided by its total number of games. Each of the 32 NFL teams has a flexible ranking of how it performs against each position.
- Should I bench a star player because of a bad matchup?
A: No, star players should always be started, even in extreme “bad” matchups against the top defenses. Although any player can bust in a bad matchup, elite fantasy football players are often matchup-proof and are an exception to the rule. On the flipside, players ranked well outside the start-sit bubble should still be benched, even in great matchups.
- What’s the difference between matchup rating and strength of schedule?
Matchup ratings provide a single-week, single-matchup view. Strength of schedule ratings and tools provide matchup data for a specific set of weeks, or a rest of season view.
