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A Bleak Landscape
In 2001, ten middle infielders hit at least 20 home runs. Rich Aurilia, with 37, would have been tied for second in baseball with Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Carter last year. That year? He was tied for second...among middle infielders, with Bret Boone. Alex Rodriguez's 52 bombs, which paced the American League were only good enough for fourth in MLB. Here's one of those "Player A/Player B" comparisons.
Player A: .324/.369/.572, 37 HR, 114 R, 97 RBI
Player B: .287/.377/.561, 36 HR, 115 R, 111 RBI
Player A was Aurilia in 2001. Player B? Mike Trout last season. Alas, those heady days seem like a lifetime ago. Last season, scoring reached its lowest level since 1969. Ian Desmond led all MI with 24 homers. If not for Nelson Cruz, we would have seen our first season without a 40 HR hitter since 1982. All of which is to say: Game done changed.
Of course, with offense down, the middle infield is something of a wasteland for fantasy purposes. That makes it a great place to take a risk, especially since there are so many intriguing options. The list below doesn't include Mookie Betts, Kolten Wong, Javier Baez, or Xander Bogaerts since none are rookie eligible at this point. It also doesn't include a few top prospects who are just a bit too far away to expect much at the MLB level this year. Still, all five players have breakout potential for the 2015 fantasy season.
Micah Johnson, Chicago White Sox
Micah Johnson stole an astounding 87 bases in 2013. These were accumulated across four levels, as Johnson began the season in rookie ball and ended in Double-A. He managed to swipe only 22 bags last season, but that can be chalked up to a pair of hamstring injuries. Johnson has little power to speak of, but he makes good contact and has demonstrated a decent batting eye.
With Marcus Semien in Oakland, Johnson had a clear path to playing time. He has seized the opportunity with some hot hitting this spring. If he can hit for a decent average, his speed makes him worth rostering in many leagues.
Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates
Dan Farnsworth wrote a great piece over at FanGraphs breaking down Jung-ho Kang's swing. The bottom line: Farnsworth "could easily see him hitting .280 with 25 homers, and that might be conservative." Well then. Kang has scuffled this spring and is no guarantee to win the starting job at short. The Pirates have worked him out at second and third base as well as short, so he does have options. Of course, Neil Walker is pretty good, and Josh Harrison is coming off an All-Star season. If Farnsworth's on to something, though, Pittsburgh will find ways to get Kang at-bats.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Lindor's minor league numbers aren't eye-popping. But seeing as he's been young for his level every step of the way and been at least league-average, that in itself is impressive. ZiPS has him projected for an 87 wRC+ this year, his age-21 season. Last season, shortstops collectively mustered an 86 wRC+.
Lindor possesses a strong plate approach, projectable power, and solid speed. He's looked good so far this spring, but will still open the season in the minors. Jose Ramirez has been getting some love in industry circles lately and may prove to be an obstacle to playing time. Lindor, however, is talented enough to force the issue.
Jose Peraza, Atlanta Braves
Jose Peraza doesn't walk much or hit for power. Last season, though, he posted a single-digit K% between High-A and Double-A as a 20-year-old. He also stole at least 60 bases for the second straight year. He will begin the season at Triple-A. The Braves will trot out Alberto Callaspo, who was one of the worst players in all of baseball last year. Atlanta is clearly going nowhere this season, but Peraza should be up before the All-Star break anyway.
Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
This ranking reflects a bearish view on Javier Baez, but mostly it's a testament to Addison Russell's talent. While there is some skepticism over his ability to stick at shortstop long term, Russell boasts above-average tools pretty much across the board. For a good sense of his upside, think Anthony Rendon last season. Russell may be the unlikeliest to make an impact this year of any player on this list. But it's not hard to picture Baez scuffling and Russell obliterating Triple-A as the Cubs find themselves in contention at the break.
