NFL Best Bets for Week 7: Novig Sports Prediction Markets

October 22, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 7 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Week 7 is creeping up on us in a hurry, and somehow we're already entering the middle of every team's schedule. Normally, I like to think we know who these teams really are by now, but with so many teams dealing with major injuries, especially to the quarterback position, it's kind of a tough week to nail down the best spots. I'm going to stick to my model and go with where I find the best edges, which just happens to be leaning on some of the teams with the best records in the league thus far.

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets for Week 7 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Underdog Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (57%)

We are about to find out just how good this Chiefs team is as they travel to Seattle to take on the defending champs. It should be strength on strength when KC's offense meets the Seattle defense, but do the Seahawks have enough offense to keep up with KC here? I'm having some doubts about the champs as they rank just 24th in DVOA offense and have struggled to get a consistent running game going without Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III.

Stop if you've heard this before.

Kenneth Walker III scored a TD.

LACvsKC on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/4ddKGE4RRp

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026

It turns out that Walker fella is a pretty darn good back and that perhaps Seattle had been holding him back a bit. He's been unleashed by the Chiefs, and we're seeing some incredible production as a result.

There was a time when we'd never pick against the Seahawks at home, but they're just 0-1-2 ATS this season in Seattle.

I have the Chiefs winning a tight one, but the safest thing to do here is take them with the 3.5 points. You can always ladder this bet to where you also bet the moneyline at a partial unit level, but on the road I like taking the points just in case the Chiefs hit a wall here.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

NFL Favorite Picks Against the Spread

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (53%) 

Is it boring to pick the Niners every time they get a low number? Perhaps, but it's been a winning formula. I'm not sure what I'm missing here, but I have the Niners favored by more than a touchdown in this spot. Yes, Mike Evans is probably out, and Deebo Samuel, too, but this offense is built (more than others) for the next guy to be able to step right in. Brandin Cooks is still quite capable, and Jordan Watkins has been solid.

That George Kittle guy is pretty good, and the Niners have the ultimate dual-purpose running back in Christian McCaffrey. Brock Purdy is playing the best football of his career, and the defense has been quite good.

My issue with the Falcons is that they're really not built to get into high-scoring shootouts. Their wins this year have come in games where they've gone up big early and then run the ball 75% of the time. They did this to Green Bay and New Orleans, but have lost the last two weeks to Baltimore and Chicago, allowing 30 and 31 points, respectively.

San Francisco looks like the best team in football. I'll take them to win a tough road game here, and if the wrong version of Michael Penix Jr. shows up, it may not be that tough after all. Atlanta has been so hot and cold, while the Niners have been consistently good.

They're 2-0 ATS on the road this season, too, beating the spread by a total of 14.8 points. Wow.

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts (49%) 

Am I normally looking to back a road team to win by a full touchdown? Probably not, but there are a few factors here that make this position appealing.

First of all, the Vikings have a major rest advantage in this one, coming off their bye week. The Colts, meanwhile, are coming off a bad loss to the Titans and could be without their best pass-catcher again, with Tyler Warren still very much in doubt for this game.

Minnesota's offense has been pretty ordinary, but they'll face a Colts team that has dropped to 24th in DVOA defense after allowing 26 points to one of the worst offenses in the NFL (Tennessee).

The bigger issue for Indy here might be this Minnesota defense, which is the top-rated unit in football now ahead of Seattle. With Daniel Jones being a turnover machine this season, there's a good chance that the Vikings can create some turnovers and give their offense good field position.

The Vikings are 4-1 ATS this season and have an average margin of victory of 9 points. Those trends are nice to see, though it's really the underlying data that puts me firmly in the Minnesota camp here.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Team Totals

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 23.5 points (55%)

I think I finally found a way to wager on my favorite team without having to trust them to win (or lose) the game. There's an old adage that you don't bet on your team one way or the other, because you'll surely jinx them, and I have found that to be true in most cases when it comes to the Steelers.

But while I have absolutely no faith in them to win this game across the pond in London, I do feel pretty good about predicting one aspect of the outcome. They're going to score some points, perhaps quite a few of them.

Aaron Rodgers showing off the elusiveness

@INDvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/bUqpkTsr6H

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2026

After a sluggish start, this Pittsburgh offense has come alive, scoring 28.5 points per game over their last four games. Aaron Rodgers is playing pretty well and getting help from his playmakers, and Jaylen Warren continues to dazzle. The Saints defense has been a sieve, allowing 32.5 points per game over their last four. Opponents went over 23.5 points in three of those games, with the one under being 23 points on the nose. I have them projected for 26.4 points in this one, so I feel pretty comfortable slamming the over.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!

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