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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season! For anyone who isn't familiar, each week we give you our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and also avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
This week, I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for our friend Kevin Tompkins -- kind of like the backup quarterback coming off the bench.
Our top pick last week was New England, which handled the New York Jets relatively cleanly and helped us move on if you selected it. Additionally, our second choice was San Francisco, which won on Monday Night Football against Washington. This week, we hope to go 2-for-2 on selections again!
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Win Probabilities For Week 7
Before jumping into the picks for Week 7, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| HOU | -535 | 84.25% | 80.82% |
| MIN | -290 | 74.36% | 71.36% |
| NYJ | -238 | 70.41% | 67.50% |
| DEN | -238 | 70.41% | 67.50% |
| LAR | -225 | 69.23% | 66.36% |
| DAL | -225 | 69.23% | 66.36% |
| PIT | -185 | 64.91% | 62.25% |
| CAR | -185 | 64.91% | 62.25% |
| SF | -175 | 63.64% | 60.92% |
| DET | -162 | 61.83% | 59.34% |
| CHI | -155 | 60.78% | 58.30% |
| SEA | -155 | 60.78% | 58.30% |
| BAL | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
| CLE | -125 | 55.56% | 53.25% |
| TEN | 105 | 48.78% | 46.75% |
| CIN | 124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| NE | 130 | 43.48% | 41.70% |
| KC | 130 | 43.48% | 41.70% |
| GB | 136 | 42.37% | 40.66% |
| ATL | 145 | 40.82% | 39.08% |
| NO | 154 | 39.37% | 37.75% |
| TB | 154 | 39.37% | 37.75% |
| LV | 185 | 35.09% | 33.64% |
| PHI | 185 | 35.09% | 33.64% |
| MIA | 195 | 33.90% | 32.50% |
| ARI | 195 | 33.90% | 32.50% |
| IND | 235 | 29.85% | 28.64% |
| NYG | 400 | 20.00% | 19.18% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 7.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 7
Houston Texans vs. New York Giants
The first selection this week is the Houston Texans, who are facing an interconference matchup with the New York Giants. These two teams are headed in opposite directions, as the Texans have won two straight while the Giants have tied and lost in their previous two games.
If you recall, Houston started 0-3 last season before going on an absolute tear to finish the season 12-5, winning in the Wild Card Round before being defeated by the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round. The Texans appear to be on a similar track this year and should be able to handle this Giants squad.
Houston has been markedly improved on offense this season, averaging 24 points per game and 355 yards of total offense, while the Giants have struggled a bit defensively, allowing over 23 points per game and over 135 rushing yards per game.
Houston is also allowing just 83 rushing yards per game on defense, and while it has struggled against the pass, this may be a week it is able to get away with pedestrian numbers going up against a backup quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. Houston should be able to handle the Giants at home, and the 9.5-point spread in favor of Houston tells that story as well.
Another dime from CJ Stroud, touchdown @HoustonTexans!
HOUvsJAX on NFL Network
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/volhpIM4kI— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
The Los Angeles Rams did many survivor players a disservice last week by losing to the Arizona Cardinals; however, if you are still reading this piece, that means they likely did you a solid service in eliminating a large portion of your pool.
This week, the Rams travel down the road to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. While the Raiders have been frisky this season, I think the Rams should be able to handle business backed by a very stout defense and a very capable offense.
Overall, the Rams are allowing just 294 yards of total offense to opposing teams, which ranks third-best in the league. They are also racking up over 400 yards of total offense, so their 2-4 record to begin the season feels particularly unlucky.
The Raiders, on the other hand, enter this matchup 3-3 off a loss against the Buffalo Bills, and have struggled quite a bit defensively this season. They are allowing an average of 27 points per game and over 370 yards of total offense per game, both of which rank in the bottom 10 of the league.
While their offense has been productive, scoring 27 points per game, they may find it difficult to get the ball moving through the air against a Rams secondary that is only allowing 174 passing yards per game, which ranks second-best in the league.
The Rams should be able to start righting the ship against the Raiders this week.
Puka Nacua BIG PLAY
AZvsLAR on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/fmCL6f4WvI— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
Also Consider Using
- New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 7
Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is a game I think the Vikings should handle, as they are currently sitting at 5-0 and are rocking along with one of the better defenses in the league. But I have a hard time backing them with this offense, and to be fair, I already used Minnesota back in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins.
As mentioned, the Vikings have a defense that ranks first in the league by allowing under 13 points per game and second in the league by allowing just 260 yards of total offense. That being said, they are scoring just 22 points per game and averaging under 300 yards of total offense.
The Colts defense has been horrible, allowing over 350 yards of total offense per game and over 27 points per game, but it is hard for me to trust Minnesota, even against this defense. The Colts have also shown a capable offense, scoring 24 points per game on average.
Again, I think Minnesota ultimately wins this one, but I could easily have a one-possession game taking place here, and that is a sweat I would be looking to avoid.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I am not sure how many folks are looking to do battle in Survivor with an AFC North rivalry, but we will cover it here as an avoid just in case. The Ravens are three-point home favorites against the Bengals with the expectation that Lamar Jackson will return.
That being said, these are frequently entertaining matchups; however, they are not ideal selections for Survivor. Across the previous six meetings between these two teams, three have been decided by three points or fewer.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
This is another one that I think the favorite in Denver should win, but I am not comfortable enough to put it on an entry given what we have seen out of the Arizona Cardinals lately, as they just upset a big favorite in the Los Angeles Rams.
Arizona is sitting at 2-4, but it has played in some high-scoring, competitive games. While its defense has been awful, Denver is averaging under 20 points per game, which does not give me a ton of confidence that it will be able to put up points.
Denver is also allowing an average of nearly 140 rushing yards per game, which is a huge red flag when making Survivor selections. It is hard for me to back a team that cannot stop the run, and that is what we are looking at with Denver.
Again, Denver has the better roster and should win this game, but it may be a bit tighter than the current spread suggests.
Chad Ryland's leg was all his team needed 🎯 @AZCardinals https://t.co/xRK1XyJNKt
— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
Also Consider Fading
- Dallas Cowboys (at Philadelphia Eagles)
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