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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/5/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We're rolling through the last month of the regular season. It's been very up-and-down, but that doesn't mean we're going to stop hunting value on the board. September can be a very fun month to bet, and we're hoping today's going to be one of those days.
In this post, I'll highlight my four favorite home run props for this Saturday. It's important to remember that no matter how juicy things look, home runs are hard to hit, which is why the payoffs are so nice. Don’t overdo it just because the data looks friendly. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout prop picks.
Below are my favorite four home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/5/2026)
Kody Clemens OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475, Bet365)
With Byron Buxton on the IL with a hip injury, it can be a bit tough to find power in the Twins' lineup. It's not hard if you've seen what Clemens has been doing as of late.
MIN - Kody Clemens Solo HR (24)
📏 395 ft | 💨 108.2 mph | 📐 25°
⚾️ 97.1 mph four-seam fastball (DET - RHP Troy Melton)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 parks 💣DET (1) @ MIN (1)
🔻 1st#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/9BBxghELmF— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) September 2, 2026
The 30-year-old has been hitting for a pretty decent .353 wOBA over the last 14 days. But what if I told you that was also paired with a .449 xwOBA? You know I love me some positive regression, and that's a lot that's headed his way. On Saturday, he gets a matchup against Anthony Kay of the White Sox.
We're targeting Clemens here not just because he's been solid with his bat (three more hits on Friday night), but he's also one of the Twins' best options against lefties. Both he and Josh Bell lead the Twins in homers against lefties with five on the season.
But it's the recent stats that I'm really drawn to, specifically the contact stats. The reason that xwOBA is so high? It's because he's posting a 58.1% hard-hit rate and a 16.1% barrel rate in that span. Just three homers in that same timeframe feels low.
For Kay, he's given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. That's combined with allowing at least six hits in five of his six starts in August. He's not generating a ton of strikeouts, so there's more contact to go around.
With how Clemens is currently hitting the ball, that should be a great thing for us. For pitch mix, we'll want to see Clemens do damage on either a four-seamer or a changeup. He's hit 11 of his 24 homers off four-seamers, so this will be our best chance.
And if Kay gets pulled early? Clemens has done very well against righties too, so Chicago's pen will still be a decent matchup for him.
Wilyer Abreu OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390, Bet365)
I've been waiting for the right time to back Abreu this season. There haven't been a ton of great spots for him on the Saturdays that I've been writing these, but today looks to be a solid matchup for him against a familiar foe in Chris Bassitt.
Wilyer Abreu gets the @RedSox on the board early! pic.twitter.com/bvMOPhineL
— MLB (@MLB) August 29, 2026
Let's start with the BvP data. Am I always the biggest on it? I try not to be, but sometimes the data speaks for itself. Abreu is 8-for-16 with two doubles and two homers against Bassitt. There's enough of a sample size here for us to know that Abreu sees him pretty well.
Over the last seven days, Abreu has done a great job of keeping the ball off the ground. He's posting a 60% fly-ball rate this past week. You can't hit a homer without hitting it in the air, so this is a great start.
Bassitt has faced at least 24 batters in each of his last four starts, so this gives us a very good shot at Abreu seeing him for a third time. The more opportunities against a pitcher you're hitting .500 off of, the better.
As for the pitch mix, Bassitt generally attacks lefties with a trio of sinkers, cutters, and curves. Earlier this season, he faced Abreu twice. The first AB was an RBI single off a sinker. The second AB was an eight-pitch affair that featured mostly cutters and sliders before Bassitt left a four-seamer up and in that Abreu crushed for a homer.
I'd expect the cutter/curve combo to be prominent on Saturday, especially since Abreu is lethal against sinkers. He's performed well against both of those pitches, though, so it may be a pick-your-poison type of approach for Bassitt.
Let's back the lefty slugger in this divisional matchup. Now let's focus on another divisional matchup.
