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Mike's Week 1 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, September 5, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
The Week 0 appetizer was a good one. We had 11 games on Thursday and eight more on Friday. Only 72 more games to go for our Week 1!
The bad news is that only 33 of those are FBS vs. FBS contests. I won't pick FBS vs. FCS games. The lines are usually really high and are off the boards at a lot of casinos. Most online betting places have them, but these are usually zero-sum games where the odds favor the site that put them up.
Let's get to the rest of the 33 games in Week 1. We've got some good places out here, even though Week 1 doesn't have the marquee games that the college football Gods have blessed us with in the last few years.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 1
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I have been having issues finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
I came out 26 points ahead last year. Any year that you come out ahead is a good one. Unfortunately, I gave most of that back in Week 0. It's time to get some more back this week.
North Texas at (6) Indiana (-40.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, that's a lot of points. What I wouldn't give to see the 2025 North Texas offense play Indiana here, but such is the state of college football now. Non-power schools can't have nice things.
I know that Eric Morris and everything that he built is gone, but North Texas isn't exactly starting from the bottom. Former West Virginia coach Neal Brown took over in Denton. He brought in his former RB Jahiem White and UCF castoff Tayven Jackson at quarterback.
Tayven Jackson returns to Bloomington, IN, this weekend.
Dusted off Chapter 1 and found his last touchdown and play for the Hoosiers.
The video isn’t high definition. Does anyone remember the score and who they were playing? pic.twitter.com/zuOngAAcKb
— Kirkwood & Dunn (@KirkwoodandDunn) September 1, 2026
You remember Tayven Jackson, right? He initially committed to Indiana and left when Curt Cignetti took over and brought all of his JMU players. Jackson goes back to where it all started.
Indiana has a lot of new pieces this year. It took the Hoosiers a little bit to hit stride last year. I think it will again. This is too many.
Pick: North Texas +40.5
East Carolina at (13) Alabama (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Blake Harrell keeps putting together good teams there in Greenville. Former Wake Forest QB Mitch Griffis will be the QB this year. Katin Houser is off to Illinois and the receivers scattered, but there is reason to believe this version of ECU can be serviceable.
I really like that half if you're betting against Alabama. The Tide desperately want to sort out the RB room, so I expect them to get off to a fast start and just run the rest of the game. That's not conducive to covering this.
Pick: East Carolina +28.5
Oregon State at (23) Houston (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
CONNER WEIGMAN ?@UHCougarFB QB1 narrowly avoids the sack and connects with Amare Thomas for the duo's second score of the afternoon.
#Big12FB | ? @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/aeowR2Kuxt— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 18, 2025
You've watched Conner Weigman and Amare Thomas, right? This looks low.
Pick: Houston -20.5
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up three points already, and I expect it to close over 21 because there's already a lot of juice at 20.5. I don't hate the -21.5 being offered now, especially if you can get it at even money. You won't be able to for long.
I know that Ryan Beard took Missouri State to a bowl game last year and took most of his team to Conway, but what Rich Rodriguez is building back in Morgantown looks like that 2007 team. Give me the Mountaineers.
Pick: West Virginia -20.5
Ohio at Nebraska (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The last team that new Nebraska QB Anthony Colandrea played at UNLV was in the Frisco Bowl against...Ohio. The Bobcats held him to just 28 rushing yards and 184 yards passing.
This is the Frank Solich Bowl. I feel like it needs a trophy of Frank chasing girls or passed out behind the wheel of a car. You know, to make it fun. I'm not sold on either team, but Colandrea's struggles against Ohio have me leaning toward the Bobcats.
Pick: Ohio +23.5
Liberty at James Madison (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is in the tank because ESPN spent the last three years bad-mouthing Billy Napier at Florida. I'm not going to say that it wasn't warranted, but I will say that Napier was never the right fit in Gainesville. JMU is more his speed.
It's a gift that RB George Pettaway stayed behind when Bob Chesney left for UCLA. That's a good building block. This feels low to me.
Pick: James Madison -6.5
Ball State at (1) Ohio State (-50.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
A: Ball State isn't that bad, and B: Ohio State couldn't care less about covering this. Leave this one alone. I'm only picking it because that's what I do.
Pick: Ball State +50.5
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Redhawk defense is going to be tested here. Pitt returns most of the same offense that looked good down the stretch last year behind Mason Heintschel and Ja'Kyrian Turner. I have to think the Panthers cover this, but it won't be easy.
Pick: Pittsburgh -16.5
Kent State at South Carolina (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Didn't we go through this last year with the Gamecocks? LaNorris Sellers was an afterthought in 2025, but he's all over sleeper lists in 2026. I get that his talent is intoxicating and adding Nitro Tuggle to the WR room is going to be fun.
What about the run game? The Gamecocks couldn't run the ball last year, and it took a toll on the season. That may not matter against Kent, but the Flashes closed the season strong after a dreadful start. This feels like too many.
Pick: Kent State +35.5
Boise State at (2) Oregon (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oregon paid Boise $2.5 million to not play this on the Smurf Turf. Boise wasted some of that money on Malachi Nelson, but that's another story. The big story here is the Oregon offense.
Throwback to September 7, 2024.
Boise State came this close to pulling off a massive upset over Oregon in Eugene.
This game had me STRESSING pic.twitter.com/MvJDskVvQW
— Oregon Updates (@oregon__updates) September 1, 2026
The Oregon offense was also the story heading into the 2024 meeting. Boise's roster isn't as good as it was then, but is it 20 points worse? I have a feeling that Boise shows up. They're not going to win, but Oregon may have to sweat this for 30 or 40 minutes.
Pick: Boise State +24.5
Texas State at (5) Texas (-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is the stage too big for the Bobcats? This is a team that had notoriously struggled on the road for most of their time in FBS until Brad Jackson came along last year.
Texas State has no chance of winning this game, but they are capable of hanging around for a while. The offense is strong, but the defense had issues last year. If they have any of those in this game, Arch Manning will carve them like a turkey.
But I'm saying there's a chance. There is no juice at all on the Texas State side. I'm laying a small wager on the Bobcats and the points just in case they showcase all of that talent they have. This is one of the best Group of 6 teams out there.
If by some miracle Texas loses this game, I'm looking forward to Steve Sarkisian trying to claim this as a Power 5 loss...
Pick: Texas State +30.5
Marshall at (18) Penn State (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There wasn't much left of the Herd when the brass let Charles Huff go, and he took most of the team with him. Huff took so many players that Marshall didn't have enough guys to play in their bowl game.
Marshall turned a corner when they turned to Carlos Del Rio-Wilson last year. The Marshall offense is good enough to make Penn State sweat this one, especially with all of the upheaval last year and how quickly it happened. This feels like too many.
Pick: Marshall +24.5
Baylor at Auburn (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is finally up over a touchdown, but that's not a deterrent at all for me. Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh beat DJ Lagway last year with a lot more talent around him. I love this line in single digits.
Byrum Brown is who you think DJ Lagway is pic.twitter.com/FYTjWPXV7M
— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) August 28, 2025
Baylor's offense is a much better fit for Lagway, but Auburn retained a lot of its defense from last year and added offensive talent. I have a feeling that Auburn rolls.
Pick: Auburn -7.5
Boston College at Cincinnati (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is another line that crept up over a touchdown when no one was looking. Cincinnati was awful down the stretch last year, even with Brendan Sorsby back there. Boston College was bad last year and lost two of the best players from the offense.
The Eagles added some Division II talent that few have heard of. Mason McKenzie was really good for Saginaw Valley State, but Cincinnati grabbed a guy from Georgia Southern who never met a throw he didn't like.
This Bearcats offense is a good fit for JC French IV. I don't like the half, but I feel like Boston College is going to struggle in this one. Cincinnati might as well, but the Bearcats should pull away at home.
Pick: Cincinnati -7.5
Tulane at Duke (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The two schools that Darian Mensah spurned meet in Durham. They should play for one of his old jerseys or something. If you read this column at all last year, you know how much I like Walker Eget.
Nate Sheppard is the big offensive piece that stayed put for Duke. I think the Blue Devils win, but man, I hate that half. There's very little juice on 7.5 on the Duke side, but the interesting thing is that Hard Rock is offering Tulane +9.5 with very little juice.
What does Vegas know? I'm not a huge believer in Zeon Chriss-Gremillion either. The fact that Hard Rock is offering the two extra points at -110 has me willing to eat the half and not tease this.
Pick: Duke -7.5
Oklahoma State (-14.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the game that ruined Mike Gundy's legacy in Stillwater last year. Tulsa won outright at Boone Pickens Stadium, and the Pokes haven't been the same since.
That's going to change with Eric Morris and his very potent North Texas offense coming to town. Oklahoma State is going to emphatically hand it back to Tulsa. There is no juice at all on 14.5, so I'm hammering it. This is low.
Tulsa at +15.5 is still carrying a ton of juice (-125). Vegas knows. They're just trying anything to get people to bet Tulsa.
Pick: Oklahoma State -14.5
Northern Illinois at (22) Iowa (31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Iowa still doesn't have a quarterback, and no one cares. The Hawkeyes haven't thrown a pass downfield since Chuck Long was a senior. This feels high, but I don't believe in NIU either. I'm probably leaving this alone.
Pick: Northern Illinois +31.5
Wyoming at Colorado State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Everyone wants to talk about the flashy Week 1 matchups. Give me Wyoming vs. Colorado State.
THE BORDER WAR.
A rivalry dating back to 1899. Two schools separated by roughly 65 miles. They play for the Bronze Boot—a trophy literally carried from one campus to the other by ROTC…
— The cfb lliason (@realfbllliason) August 14, 2026
Wyoming has won eight of the last 10 Border Wars, but Jim Mora has people in Fort Collins believing. This might be the best game of the entire weekend.
This game has only been played in September 13 times in 117 meetings. Colorado State is 10-3 in those games. That's good enough for me!
Pick: Colorado State -3.5
Missouri State at (8) Texas A&M (-40.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't trust this line either. It feels like too many, especially if A&M commits to running Marcel Reed less.
Pick: Missouri State +40.5
Arkansas State at Memphis (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line got goosed after Memphis waltzed into Vegas and beat UNLV. It's still too low.
Pick: Memphis -11.5
Florida International at South Florida (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
?USF Quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr.is a BALLER…
First Year EVER as a HC…Brian Hartline has an opportunity to do something SPECIAL at USF…
Win a Conference Championship & make it to the CFB Playoffs pic.twitter.com/KJzUOAckaZ
— Life and Football (@LifeandBall) July 18, 2026
The Bulls are starting over with Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, but they got a keeper in Michael Van Buren Jr. They're not going to miss a beat.
Pick: South Florida -13.5
Sam Houston at Troy (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy has a healthy Goose Crowder, and Sam Houston only beat one FBS team last year. This is quite a few points, but I feel like the Trojans pull away.
Pick: Troy -16.5
Clemson at (11) LSU (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There is no juice on LSU right now. You really have to be persona non grata in the college football world to get a nation rallied behind Dabo Swinney.
I feel like this LSU circus is too much. I like Clemson outright.
Pick: Clemson +10.5
Western Michigan at (16) Michigan (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas is playing catch me if you can with this line. It has been pulled in several Vegas casinos, and is even becoming scarce online. I don't know what's going on, but I do know that Western Michigan is a solid team. Michigan wins, but by closer to 17 than 28.
Pick: Western Michigan +28.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Mississippi State (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Enjoy the Kamario Taylor coming out party! I'm not sure that I want to bet this though. That's a lot of points.
Pick: Mississippi State -28.5
Florida Atlantic at Florida (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Aaron Philo has made a lot of noise in camp, but that FAU offense was good last year. Caden Veltkamp and Easton Messer are still there. This feels a touch high to me for a first-time starter and a new coach to cover.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +26.5
UNLV (-2.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Hawaii currently +3 vs UNLV this Saturday night
Since Timmy Chang became the 'Bows head coach in 2022...
Hawaii is 21-6-1 ATS at home & 13-5 ATS as a home underdog
H/T @TeamRankings
— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) August 31, 2026
The Warriors have been good at home under Timmy Chang, even when the team has had less talent than it currently has. The line has dipped under 3, but I think I still like Hawaii outright. I'm probably going to leave this alone and just enjoy the game.
Pick: Hawaii +2.5
Central Michigan at New Mexico (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. It's still as high as -14 in places and has even dipped below 10 in a couple of spots. Whatever side you want, shop around. The juice is about the same across the board.
Scottre Humphrey was outstanding last year, and probably could have gone to a Power 4 team if he wanted to. Still, CMU looked pretty good when Angel Flores took over the QB slot in the middle of 2025. I don't like the half, or all of the play in the line. That's enough to move me off of this one and on to the other side.
Pick: Central Michigan +10.5
UCLA (-2.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yeah, UCLA is getting way too much credit for landing "the next Curt Cignetti." What people are forgetting is that Cal has the current Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. That means more right now. Give me Cal outright.
Pick: California +2.5
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Carter Jones was an absolute disaster at QB last year, and Nevada didn't upgrade. It's going to be another long season in Reno...
Pick: Western Kentucky -2.5
Washington State at (17) Washington (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess if we have to have the Apple Cup in September, at least we get it on Sunday night. At least it's still going on, unlike the Civil War. The niceties end there. This is going to get ugly.
Pick: Washington -23.5
Wisconsin vs. (4) Notre Dame (-20.5) at Green Bay, WI
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
All three of the Sunday games are in NFL stadiums. At least they're staying with the motif. This feels like a lot for a Notre Dame team that is breaking in new running backs.
Wisconsin was much better last year when they realized that they couldn't afford to fire Luke Fickell. Old Dominion's Colton Joseph takes over at QB for the Badgers, and former Iowa State RB Abu Sama III joins him in the backfield.
I like what Wisconsin has done this offseason. I think this one stays closer.
Pick: Wisconsin +20.5
(24) Louisville vs. (9) Mississippi (-6.5) at Nashville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Ole Miss is a well-oiled machine on offense. As good as the Louisville backs are when healthy, they're not going to be able to run on this line. This is too low.
Pick: Mississippi -6.5
(19) SMU (-3.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I get nervous when lines are this far out of whack. New Mexico State picked up chunks on the FSU secondary. An experienced Kevin Jennings is going to decimate that secondary. Is this the straw that breaks the Norvell's back?
Pick: SMU -3.5
I didn't plan on having four max bets in the first week, but there are some spots I really like. I also have five four-point and one-point bets. I have 14 two-pointers and 10 total three-point bets. Good luck out there!
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