Top 25 College Football Rankings Analysis: Overrated, Underrated Teams (AP Poll)

August 27, 2026

Mike's top 25 college football AP Poll rankings analysis. His overrated and underrated teams for the 2026 preseason, including Tennessee, Miami, BYU, and more.

The preseason polls are out for both the AP and the Coaches Polls. Our preseason top 25 is also out, so we'll go through the discrepancies between our poll and the publicly released ones.

I did a piece like this last year. As with any preseason polls, there is right, and there is wrong. I was right about Indiana being too low and Notre Dame being too high. I was also very wrong about Baylor and Florida, so take it for what you will.

I'm not going to pick too much on the polls not ranking teams like Oklahoma State or Auburn. The bottom of the polls is mostly subjective. I will get after them for not ranking a Group of 6 team. It was obviously intentional, alluding to the days (coming soon to a screwed-up sport near you) when the G6 will have to be ranked above a certain point to get a bid, not just be a conference champion. It's coming, and we should all hate it.

Five Overrated Teams By The AP and Coaches Polls

Notre Dame

Both the Coaches and AP Polls have the Irish in the top five again. I didn't agree last year, and I certainly don't agree this year.

Last year my reservations were based on CJ Carr being a first-time starter. He fared well, but RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price took a whole lot of pressure off of him.

This year, it's the inverse. Carr is the established guy and is even the Vegas favorite to win the Heisman at the start of the season. Don't even get me started on how ridiculous that is.

Who is winning the 2026 Heisman Trophy⬇️

Odds via @DKSports #DKPartner pic.twitter.com/GDxivCCd7d

— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) August 1, 2026

I'm not going to rag on Carr. I think he has a good year. What worries me is trying to replace both Love and Price. Aneyas Williams was good in limited carries last year. Can he hold up under a workload like Love's, or Price's, for that matter? That's too big a question for me to ignore.

I do still have Notre Dame in the top 10 because with that schedule, they should easily win 10 games. A 10-win Notre Dame, fair or not, is a playoff team.

Texas A&M

All of the preseason polls underestimated the Aggies last year, placing them at 19th. This year, the Aggies are back in the top 10, and I'm really wondering if they should be.

I have the Aggies at 12, so it's not a huge gap. That said, the major preseason polls have the Aggies comfortably in a playoff spot. I have them right on the edge.

There's a good reason for that. A&M has to go on the road to play LSU. Missouri, Alabama, and Oklahoma. That's not counting a game against rival Texas at Kyle Field. Are the Aggies winning all but two of those games? I have my doubts.

Alabama

As with last year, there is a sizeable disconnect between me and the other preseason polls concerning Alabama. Last year it was based on inexperience at quarterback. Ty Simpson turned out to be everything Alabama could have hoped for.

The other outlets have Alabama four or five spots higher than I do. Never mind the lack of experience with Keelon Russell. That still isn't the biggest issue. The RB room is.

Alabama's lack of a consistent run game was a problem for much of last year. Freshman EJ Crowell and AK Dear, a highly rated 2025 prospect, were supposed to clear that up.

Both have been hurt in camp. Crowell isn't expected to miss any time, but Dear could be out until the end of September. A partially hobbled Lotzeir Brooks and a disappearing Ryan Coleman-Williams are also concerns.

Washington

I hear a lot of chatter about Washington as a sleeper team. Is everyone just going to ignore the offseason? Who's to say that at the first sign of turmoil that this giant camp love boat won't capsize?

When you're dealing with multiple personalities, giant pay discrepancies, and someone who was lured away for a few days during the offseason, that could matter.

Talent-wise, Washington is good enough to be a thorn in the side of the Big Ten. How much of a thorn? That remains to be seen. The team isn't fully intact from last season, but whenever you have a quarterback the caliber of Demond Williams Jr., that's a team that will be hard to defend.

University of Washington QB #2 Demond Williams Jr.

?

Vs. Purdue (2025) pic.twitter.com/TEHyjwlEYv

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) August 16, 2026

Washington has the talent to prove me completely wrong, and I hope they do. However, I want to see this team work through some things together before I'm willing to rank them on my list.

Tennessee

The Vols are at the tail end of the top 25 in the preseason once again, and that is the only reason Tennessee was in there at all in 2025. Tennessee didn't beat a single ranked team last year.

That's where preseason rankings have too much of an effect on the football season. It happened with Tennessee last year and will happen with Missouri this year. Did you ever stop to wonder why another SEC team is in the preseason rankings? It's on purpose.

Missouri is a peculiar addition because of the uncertain status of star RB Ahmad Hardy...until you realize that it's not about the team, but about the number. If Tennessee beats a ranked team this season, I'll be the first to include them. I promise.

Five Underrated Teams By The AP and Coaches Polls

Any Group of 6 team

I have Texas State in my rankings, but honestly, there are a few teams that ESPN doesn't pay attention to anymore that could make some people take notice if they stayed away from legacy media.

Texas State is the low-hanging fruit. The Bobcats had a superb offense led by a true freshman. If it weren't for the story of Drew Mestemaker, everyone would have known who Brad Jackson was last year.

There are others. It won't be the same ones as last year. Charles Huff took Marshall to a bowl and resurrected a dead Southern Miss program in just one year before heading to Memphis. He has the players and the university backing to put the Tigers into the CFP.

Offensive guru Dan Mullen at UNLV led the Rebels to a big season last year and retained star RB Jai'Den Thomas. Boise State still has Maddux Madsen up there. Owen McCown is one of the few and proud All-AAC team members to stay in the conference at UTSA.

There are four or five G6 teams that look good right now, and another half-dozen or so who will make you think that before the end of the season. Choose from the ones mentioned.

Go watch Hawaii, or North Dakota State, or James Madison and tell me that those teams couldn't hang with the back of the top 25. If you say no, you're likely wrong. It's disgusting that the AP and Coaches Polls choose to ignore these teams now.

Auburn and Oklahoma State

Alex Golesh took his elite South Florida offense to Auburn. Eric Morris took his elite North Texas offense to Stillwater. Matt Campbell took his strong Iowa State offense to Penn State. Guess who's getting the recognition?

All three of these teams are remarkably similar, yet it is Campbell who gets the attention because Iowa State is already in a power conference. Truth be told, the USF and North Texas offenses were much better.

Golesh retained Auburn's offensive star from last year, RB Jeremiah Cobb.

At Auburn, we run the ball ?? pic.twitter.com/2e1XuxUdRb

— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) August 14, 2026

Not a peep. I understand SEC schedule this, SEC schedule that. The same people parroting that are conveniently forgetting that Golesh and South Florida went into the Swamp and beat Florida last year. Florida is still in the SEC, right?

Forget the fact that only QB Byrum Brown had a strong game. That's expected. The point is that USF's offense could do well enough to beat an SEC team on the road in a hostile environment.

Morris and Golesh took elite offenses to teams that have a culture of playing defense. Campbell did the same thing, and most are picking up on that. Why not Oklahoma State and Auburn as well?

Utah

I have the Utes a lot higher than the other preseason polls. What's not to like? Most of the offense is back. Kyle Whittingham couldn't even get backup QB Byrd Ficklin to go to Michigan with him despite a reported seven-figure offer.

That tells me that maybe, just maybe, some of those Utah blowhard fans on message boards were right. That Whittingham was holding Utah back and had lost the team. We're about to find out.

Morgan Scalley is a well-respected defensive coach who was gift-wrapped a potent offense. Utah could be a CFP team, and it wouldn't shock me at all.

BYU

These perpetually linked teams just can't get away from each other. BYU, despite back-to-back 10-win seasons, are still getting no respect in the polls. The Cougars added Notre Dame to the schedule this year.

Knowing that committee room, they'll severely dock the Irish if they lose in Provo, and BYU will barely move. This offense was good last year with true freshman Bear Bachmeier leading the way. They'll be even better this year.

Bear Bachmeier connects with his brother Tiger Bachmeier on the last day of Fall Camp pic.twitter.com/aWWY20rSrf

— Casey Lundquist (@casey_lundquist) August 25, 2026

RB LJ Martin is back. The versatile Sione Moa is healthy for the first time in two years. Bear has looked the part in camp. This is a very dangerous team that everyone ignores because the Big 12 is the redheaded stepchild of the Big Ten and SEC.

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes made it to the National Championship Game last year, yet the Coaches and AP don't even have them in the top five. RBs Mark Fletcher Jr. (who had a big game on that vaunted Indiana defense) and CharMar Brown return.

Mark Fletcher Jr. is still ascending. pic.twitter.com/KfGxerAuZB

— Art M. (@canefilms) July 20, 2026

Freshman sensation Malachi Toney gets the ultimate possession guy, Duke's Cooper Barkate, with him this year. Not to mention Barkate's quarterback, Darian Mensah, is taking over for Carson Beck.

Mensah was second in FBS in passing yards last year despite playing behind an offensive line that was porous. He will be elite behind this line.

I opined that Miami's ranking was disrespectful, and I stand by it. If the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame, they likely run the table. The schedule lines up perfectly, and this offense and defense are as good as or better than last year.

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