Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Jared Jones, Cade Cavalli, and Ryan Johnson

July 21, 2026

Frank looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 17 in 2026, or just mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 17 of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. For those who are new to this weekly series, we take a look at starting pitchers who have had surprisingly strong starts over the past couple of weeks and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or if they're just in a nice rhythm.

This week, we'll dive into three starting pitchers currently trending up. We're looking at their strong results over the last 14 days to determine whether or not they can keep it rolling. Only one of these pitchers is widely available, but you can still try to trade for the other two.

Keep reading to find out whether Jared Jones, Cade Cavalli, and Ryan Johnson are for real or just mirages. You'll find out why I recommend buying high on Jones and Cavalli. As always, rostered percentages are from Yahoo! leagues.

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates - 45% Rostered

Jones came into the 2026 season with a lot of hype, especially since he'd missed a year with an internal brace procedure. After a slow start, which should have been expected due to his lengthy absence, Jones has found his groove.

While the overall numbers don't jump off the page, including a 4.05 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 40.0 innings, you have to love the 29.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. The underlying metrics are quite impressive, as highlighted by a 3.24 SIERA.

The Pirates' flame-throwing righty has turned it up a notch in his last three starts, putting up a 1.22 xERA with a 43.4% strikeout rate and a 5.7% walk rate in 15 innings. We just saw Jones rack up eight strikeouts vs. the Athletics and nine strikeouts against the Guardians. You have to be intrigued by that strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jared Jones is absolutely SHOVING tonight, to put it lightly...

Up to 8 strikeouts after 2 more in a 13-pitch 5th inning. Only 68 pitches thrown so far tonight. pic.twitter.com/2FWT1bBLUl

— Platinum Key (@PlatinumKey13) July 8, 2026

Let's take a closer look at Jones' pitch mix to see what his arsenal really looks like:

• Four Seamer: 45.0% usage, .316 xwOBA, 28.4% whiff rate
• Slider: 30.9% usage, .240 xwOBA, 37.3% whiff rate
• Changeup: 14.7% usage, .281 xwOBA, 36.4% whiff rate
• Curveball: 9.4% usage, .286 xwOBA, 33.3% whiff rate

With all four of Jones' pitches yielding a 28+% whiff rate, there's no shortage of weapons for him to rack up strikeouts. You also have to be intrigued by how his four-seamer is sitting at 98.6 MPH, which is an increase from 97.3 MPH last year. There's a lot to like in this profile.

Verdict: REAL. It's wheels up for Jones for the rest of the season, especially with the Pirates fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. Bubba Chandler has been a massive disappointment, so the Pirates need Jones to complement Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft. He certainly has the arsenal to be a high-end start for the rest of the season, especially with such a high strikeout ceiling.

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals - 42% Rostered

Cavalli was a pitcher who got a lot of preseason hype coming into the season, but he was largely inconsistent throughout the first half. His overall numbers are nothing special, including a 3.78 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 104.2 innings. However, if we dig under the hood, there's a lot to like with Cavalli going forward.

For one, he's increased his strikeout rate from 18.3% to 26.2% this season. The underlying metrics also look good, including a 3.46 SIERA. On top of that, Cavalli has found a nice rhythm lately:

• 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
• 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• 2.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
• 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Four excellent outings with one blowup sandwiched in between. During this five-start sample, Cavalli has a 2.88 xERA with a 35.2% strikeout rate and a 3.8% walk rate. That's the kind of strikeout-to-walk ratio you love to see, especially from a young pitcher who is finally finding consistency in the big leagues.

Cade Cavalli, 98mph Fastball and 88mph Knuckle Curve, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/vhPvmoFfjr

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 2, 2026

Let's dive into Cavalli's pitch mix to see what he's working with here:

• Four Seamer: 35.0% usage, .335 xwOBA, 22.5% whiff rate
• Knuckle Curve: 26.9% usage, .252 xwOBA, 40.1% whiff rate
• Sinker: 15.5% usage, .370 xwOBA, 11.6% whiff rate
• Sweeper: 11.7% usage, .263 xwOBA, 29.1% whiff rate
• Changeup: 7.8% usage, .362 xwOBA, 19.7% whiff rate
• Cutter: 3.0% usage, .483 xwOBA, 18.8% whiff rate

As we can see here, Cavalli has a robust selection of pitches, with the knuckle curve being an absolute weapon. As with Jones, you have to be excited about what's in store for Cavalli for the rest of the season. He's in a nice groove right now.

Verdict: REAL. This is exactly the type of pitcher that you want to try to buy high on. With the underlying metrics supporting a breakout, including a SIERA that is lower than his ERA, along with a diverse arsenal, Cavalli has the tools to make a major impact down the stretch. It also helps that the Nationals have exceeded expectations, giving him a chance to rack up wins on one of the most surprising teams in baseball.

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels - 2% Rostered

Johnson is an unheralded arm pitching for one of the worst teams in MLB. He's a 23-year-old righty who was excellent in Double-A this season, putting up a 2.25 xERA with a 32.9% strikeout rate before struggling a bit in Triple-A, and then ultimately getting promoted to the big leagues.

So far, Johnson has put up a 6.10 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP with a 17.8% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate in 38.1 innings. It's been a rough ride for Johnson in a short stint in the majors, but with the Angels nowhere near contention, they have every incentive to let him get his reps and develop while facing professional hitters.

One reason why I'm a bit interested in Johnson is that his 4.88 SIERA is a lot better than his 6.10 ERA. Perhaps this is the case of a young pitcher who is trying to find his footing in the big leagues. A learning curve should have been expected. If we dig a little deeper, we see that Johnson has gotten in a nice rhythm.

In his last five starts, he has a 2.52 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with a 23.7% strikeout rate and an 8.2% walk rate in 25 innings. This is supported by the advanced metrics, as highlighted by a 3.56 xERA. Johnson has at least five strikeouts in three of these five outings, including eight against the Orioles on June 23rd.

Los Angeles Angels’ pitcher Ryan Johnson has this unique windup. A lot of his pitches tend to move side-to-side. Throws from this sidearm slot with little extension. There’s gotta be some deception there. pic.twitter.com/1NUTjTFjo5

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 30, 2026

Let's take a closer look at Johnson's pitch mix:

• Cutter: 29.1% usage, .265 xwOBA, 29.4% whiff rate
• Sinker: 28.4% usage, .509 xwOBA, 3.3% whiff rate
• Splitter: 17.4% usage, .174 xwOBA, 36.0% whiff rate
• Sweeper: 15.1% usage, .275 xwOBA, 39.1% whiff rate

Johnson should definitely scrap the sinker, but the splitter and sweeper each look like legit weapons. He primarily throws the splitter to lefties and the sweeper to righties, so it's nice that he's able to throw a pitch to get either side out.

Verdict: REAL. Yes, it's the Angels, but hear me out. Johnson showed some potential in Double-A, and now seems to be figuring it out in the big leagues. The arsenal looks effective, making him worth a look as a streamer in deeper leagues.

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