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Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 17 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Straight out of the All-Star break and into the home stretch we go. We're approaching some really important times in the MLB season, but it's also an incredibly important time in the fantasy baseball season. If you're reading this article, then you're still in the race for a playoff spot in your league. Late July and August are make-or-break months, and diamonds in the rough can help snag you one of those final spots.
So let's bring you another edition of our Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs for Week 17 of the fantasy baseball season. My job is to find hot hitters and help you identify who's a breakout that's going to help you in your hunt for the playoffs. On the flip side, I also need to help you avoid fake outs that could hurt you down the stretch. The advanced stats tell all, so let's use them to the best of our abilities.
This week, we'll evaluate four hitters -- Andruw Monasterio, Luke Keaschall, Spencer Steer, and Tim Tawa. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, July 19th.
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Andruw Monasterio, SS, Boston Red Sox
2026 Stats: .731 OPS, 106 OPS+, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 20 R, 2 SB, 1% Rostered (Yahoo!)
At this point, who doesn't want a piece of Boston's lineup? They're the hottest team in the bigs and the offense is cooking. Monasterio has flown under the radar during their hot streak, but he's been hitting the ball very effectively.
In July, he's hitting for a 1.116 OPS, one of the highest marks on the team. He's starting to see more playing time at shortstop thanks to Boston facing a run of lefties this month. But the production is too hard to ignore. So is he a breakout or a fake out? Let's dig in.
Shane McClanahan doesn't get his challenge, and Andruw Monasterio immediately ties it up! pic.twitter.com/5hhuh6jFga
— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) July 19, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, Monasterio is looking like the hitter he's traditionally been. The 22.0% strikeout rate falls in line with his norms while the 7.3% walk rate is just a touch below his career mark of 8.3%. Neither number is worrisome, and neither is overwhelming great. But both are fine numbers to post.
His batted ball profile does show some improvement from year-to-year. His ground-ball rate of 31.1% is just a touch higher than last season's 30.1%. We do see a drop in fly-ball rate, going from 50.5% to 45.9%, but the good news is it isn't going to grounders. That means a solid increase in line drive rate, seeing it jump from 19.4% to 23.0%.
While he's never been a big home run hitter, the 8.9% HR/FB rate he's posting would be a career high for him. It's still a very low mark when compared to the rest of the league, but improvement anywhere is good to see.
As we move on to BABIP, it's showing us a .286 mark. He had two seasons in Milwaukee with a BABIP around .330 and another with him posting a .298 mark. That could point to some potential positive regression, especially since the line drive rate has increased.
Baseball Savant doesn't believe that positive regression will happen, though. His .317 wOBA is paired with a .308 xwOBA, so it's negative regression they're expecting. Even if it's not much, we'd prefer to see the numbers a bit closer.
Part of what's influencing that is a hard-hit rate of just 38.4%. That would rank in the 38th percentile, matching the mark Taylor Ward's putting up in Baltimore. His barrel rate of 9.6% looks better, though, as it ranks in the 60th percentile alongside Salvador Perez. At least when Monasterio is getting good wood on it, he's doing good things.
Andruw Monasterio got all of this one pic.twitter.com/CzuwkgVIco
— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken2) June 6, 2026
As far as pitch mix goes, there's nothing that points towards dramatic positive or negative regression. Four-seamers and sinkers have been strengths of his, hitting four-seamers for a .366 wOBA and sinkers for a .370 wOBA. Each is expecting negative regression (.333 xwOBA for four-seamers, .357 xwOBA for sinkers), but neither worries me, and both are solid floors.
Pitchers are likely to pivot to more sliders and sweepers against the 29-year-old. He's only hit sliders for a .197 wOBA, and it's paired with a .233 xwOBA. He only hits sweepers for a .222 wOBA that's paired with a .200 xwOBA. These are clear weaknesses that pitchers will start focusing on soon.
Verdict: Overall, I think Monasterio is having a solid year with some noted improvements, especially in July. He's keeping the ball off the ground and is being productive with line drives. But I do worry about him being caught up in a platoon role with Tsung-Che Cheng. Since Monasterio is getting starts against lefties, he's going to get fewer opportunities than Cheng unless he starts blistering the ball off righties.
He still deserves to be on more than 1% of rosters, but don't go breaking the bank to add him. If anything, he makes for a very solid streaming option when Boston faces a southpaw. What he's done in July has been great, but opportunities going forward may be limited.
Luke Keaschall, 2B/OF, Minnesota Twins
2026 Stats: .705 OPS, 98 OPS+, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 49 R, 12 SB, 59% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Keaschall was actually featured last year in a Breakouts vs Fake Outs article. At that point, he was an obvious buy after recovering from a forearm fracture and lighting everything up in August.
This year has been a little bit different, though, as pitchers have started to catch on. That was until July started. Now the 23-year-old has a blistering 1.132 OPS in July, powered by a .405 batting average and a 10.2% walk rate. Does this mean he's getting back to his 2025 shape in the form of a breakout? Is this potentially a fake out?
Firecracker to right for Keaschall! pic.twitter.com/eGMAutyzkp
— Ted (@tlschwerz) July 4, 2026
In looking at his plate approach, he still is a low strikeout type of hitter. His 15.0% strikeout rate is basically who he's been throughout both the majors and minors. His 9.8% walk rate is a slight improvement from last year, but maybe there's a bit more he can do. He generally had a 12% walk rate or higher throughout the minors, so there's a chance he could see his walk rate improve even more as his career goes on.
From a batted ball perspective, we're seeing progress across the board. His 45.8% ground-ball rate has dropped to 37.1%, his fly-ball rate has increased from 34.0% to 41.7%, and his line drive rate is up slightly to 21.2% from last year's 20.3% mark.
The only area where things are worse is the HR/FB rate, which has dropped to 3.6%. Keaschall has generally been a good contact hitter, so power isn't the priority, but his mark was already low, and a further drop doesn't help our cause here.
Moving on up to BABIP, we see he's posting a .303 mark. After last season's .340 BABIP, it's not a surprise to see this creep back towards a league-average mark. It also helps to eliminate some concerns about luck here.
Luke Keaschall keeps it inside the foul pole to tie the game for the @Twins! pic.twitter.com/QpJovQYmMK
— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2026
Now to his Baseball Savant page. While he's hitting for a .318 wOBA on the season, that's paired with a .299 xwOBA. That'd rank in just the 25th percentile. With improvements on his batted ball profile, and a walk rate that's still pretty good, we have to wonder if quality of contact is an issue here.
It certainly is. His 27.9% hard-hit rate ranks in just the seventh percentile while his 3.0% barrel rate ranks in the 11th percentile. If you're thinking to yourself, "Hey, these numbers must be way better in July with how hot he is," then you're not gonna be happy here.
That's because in July his barrel rate is at 3.0% while the hard-hit rate is at 27.3%. With those marks so close to his season averages, it helps explain why his .480 wOBA in July is paired with a .330 xwOBA. It's a solid floor at .330, but he's still massively overachieving.
As we move onto the pitch mix, the first three pitches he sees the most are all expecting negative regression. Sinkers are in that mix, but they're not quite as worrisome with a .359 wOBA and a .347 xwOBA. Four-seamers and sliders will have more impact. He's hitting four-seamers for a .390 wOBA, but they're paired with a .327 xwOBA. Sliders he's hitting for a .338 wOBA to go with a .292 xwOBA. They're just a long way apart, with regression going the opposite way we want it to.
Pitchers are likely to pivot more towards changeups when facing Keaschall. He's hitting them for just a .178 wOBA that's paired with a .209 xwOBA. If they're not afraid to throw the four-seamer to give the changeup something to play off of, then they're likely going to have success.
Verdict: While I'm not that concerned that Keaschall doesn't hit the ball for much power, I am concerned that he's not hitting it hard as often as he should be. With this low of a hard-hit rate, combined with a weak barrel rate, it relegates him to being a soft contact hitter that's simply hoping for singles. That can only take you so far in this league.
I'm not fooled by the hot streak here. Keaschall appears to be a sell. His overachieving may be appealing to some fantasy managers, so see if they'll bite on a trade package with him included. I get it if you're afraid to let him go based on what he's done the past few weeks. But come later this season, he's going to start realizing that negative regression. Let it happen on another manager's roster, not yours.
Spencer Steer, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
2026 Stats: .759 OPS, 106 OPS+, 16 HR, 40 RBI, 54 R, 3 SB, 39% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Everything was looking solid for Cincinnati to start the season, but that's all changed over the past couple of months. They're now in a seller's market, and one piece that's attracting attention is their first baseman Steer. He's performed well this season and should be drawing interest from both MLB teams and fantasy managers.
His July numbers have surpassed his full-season marks too. He's hitting for a really solid .903 OPS that's powered by a 50.0% hard-hit rate. Getting hot at the right time is a great thing for the Reds, but other franchises (and you) need to determine whether this is a breakout or if we're looking at a fake-out here.
SPENCE INSIDE-THE-PARK HR!!!@spenc__er pic.twitter.com/zQYhTyWnTJ
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 18, 2026
His plate approach this season is nearly identical to what he did in 2025. His 22.1% strikeout rate is just 0.6% below last year's mark while his 9.2% walk rate is just 0.2% above last year as well. No notable changes here is underselling it.
Moving on to the batted ball profile, we're seeing some not-so-great changes in areas we don't want them. His ground-ball rate is up to 43.0% from 34.2%, his fly-ball rate is down to 41.8% from 45.5%, and his line drive rate is also down to 15.3% from 20.3% last year. As a whole, it's not a terrible batted ball profile, but it's never great to see a nearly 10% increase in ground-ball rate.
What has improved about his profile, though, is his HR/FB rate. That's up to 15.4% after being at 12.1% last year. This would actually be a career high for the 28-year-old, who's already hit 16 homers on the season. At least when it's getting in the air, he's crushing it.
His BABIP is clocking in at .279 so far. While it's below .300, this would actually be the second-highest mark of his career. He's generally around .270, so we'll consider this number fair for his profile.
Now to his Baseball Savant page to check the expected stats. His .333 wOBA is paired with a .346 xwOBA. That xwOBA is in the 73rd percentile, making him an attractive bat with positive regression coming.
Spencer Steer extends the @Reds lead with a 3-run moonshot 🚀 pic.twitter.com/ZYi0bBlIMx
— MLB (@MLB) June 20, 2026
The hard-hit rate of 39.8% is actually below league-average, coming in at the 44th percentile. You'd expect it to be higher with an xwOBA in the 73rd percentile. But the barrel rate of 12.8% ranks in the 83rd percentile. This is where he's really making things happen. When he gets it, he really gets it.
For the pitch mix, we've got three really solid floors right out of the gate. He's hitting four-seamers for a .329 wOBA to go along with a .341 xwOBA. Sinkers have a .390 wOBA and a .373 xwOBA. Sliders have quite a bit of positive regression coming, as he's hitting them for a .302 wOBA that's paired with a .373 xwOBA. With these pitches making up almost two-thirds of the pitches he sees, we can see a very solid floor for the 28-year-old.
He does have a couple of obvious weaknesses, though. Sweepers and changeups haven't been all that kind to him. He's hit sweepers for a .268 wOBA to go along with a .283 xwOBA. He's hit changeups for a .271 wOBA to go along with a .231 xwOBA. Pitchers are likely to pivot to these more often when they're in advantageous counts.
Verdict: The Reds' first baseman is attracting attention for a reason. While he may be overachieving some in July, some of this is simply him recognizing positive regression. The full-season picture tells us he's not quite an upper-echelon hitter, but one that's going to do damage and be a productive member of the lineup.
Steer is a buy for me. With him being on 39% of Yahoo! rosters, there's a decent chance he's on your waiver wire. If not, see what it would take to pry him away from another manager. Maybe he's interested in Keaschall?
Tim Tawa, 1B/2B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2026 Stats: .704 OPS, 91 OPS+, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 2 SB, 4% Rostered (Yahoo!)
It's been a bit of a rough start to Tawa's career with Arizona. He's generally been successful in the minors, but he hit for a 72 OPS+ last year. This year it's up to 91, but it hasn't come easily. A really rough April and May forced the DBacks to option Tawa to Triple-A Reno.
All he did in Reno was hit for a 1.142 OPS in 20 games. It made him an easy call-up as Arizona deals with injuries in the outfield. That's now translating to a 1.095 OPS in July over 31 PAs. It's a small sample size, but are we looking at a breakout here? Let's dig in.
Tim Tawa solo shot to give the Diamondbacks a clutch insurance run over the Dodgers in the ninth 😤 pic.twitter.com/z1MtZ9qeur
— ESPN (@espn) July 12, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, we see a really solid improvement in strikeout rate. It's down to 22.4% this year after being at 28.4% last year. The walk rate is slightly improved, up to 9.3% from last year's 8.9%.
These numbers are really close to the totals he put up throughout Arizona's system in 2024, which resulted in an 8.6% walk rate and a 20.9% strikeout rate. We're probably not going to see a ton of movement either way from these current numbers.
For his batted ball profile, we're certainly seeing a different hitter in the majors than we have in the minors. His 53.6% ground-ball rate is up from his 48.9% rate he posted last year. Throughout the minor leagues, he's generally had a ground-ball rate around 42%. There's a clear area of opportunity here for Tawa to improve on.
The fly-ball rate is sitting at 33.3%, down from last year's 38.0%, while the line drive rate of 13.0% is nearly identical to what he did last year. If there's some solace here, it's that he's posting a 17.4% HR/FB rate that's actually really nice to see. If he can simply lift the ball more, then we'd see more homers flying at Chase Field.
His BABIP is coming in at a .246 clip on the season, below his .252 mark he posted in the majors last season. If we use his 2024 numbers in the minors again, since it spreads over 600 PAs, that number sat at .310. Maybe there's some room for improvement here? That depends on contact, which we'll dig into very shortly.
On Baseball Savant, we can see that his .307 wOBA is paired with a .290 xwOBA. For reference, that's .290 xwOBA would match him with Baltimore's Jeremiah Jackson in the 17th percentile. His 37.0% hard-hit rate would rank in the 30th percentile, and his 5.6% barrel rate would rank in the 26th percentile.
Tim Tawa has 6 RBI so far this series. pic.twitter.com/nfXsybYNgw
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) July 12, 2026
While that's from a full season perspective, his July numbers read much better. Tawa's July features a 12.5% barrel rate, a 50.0% hard-hit rate, and a .362 xwOBA. That's all despite the fact that he's posting a 59.1% ground-ball rate. So at least when he's keeping it off the ground, he's doing well, but a number that high is certainly a reminder to consider the sample size of 31 PAs here.
As far as the pitch mix goes, Tawa has a strength in sinkers. He's hit them for a .379 wOBA, though it's paired with a .326 xwOBA. That's at least above league average, so I'm considering it a small win here.
The other three pitches in his top four are all weaknesses, though. That'd be four-seamers (.278 wOBA, .294 xwOBA), sliders (.291 wOBA, .225 xwOBA), and sweepers (.182 wOBA, .226 xwOBA). With those three all posting a sub-.300 xwOBA, it paints a not-so-pretty picture.
Verdict: Tawa did well to make his way back to the majors and, to his credit, he's making the most of his opportunity right now. But I do think that we're looking at some fool's gold here. While he's clearly hitting the ball harder and barreling it more often in July, I can't get away from the near 60% ground-ball rate. With how soft he was hitting the ball before, I can't help but assume he's getting lucky.
I can't consider Tawa a sell with him being on just 4% of Yahoo! rosters, but don't be fooled by the outburst we're seeing right now. Pitchers are sure to adjust shortly, and we'll soon see a version of Tawa that isn't a bad hitter, but is an above-average hitter. That could be alright for DBacks fans, but for fantasy managers aiming to make the playoffs, it won't provide much value.
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