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Jamie's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/4/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ben Rice, Kyle Schwarber, and others!
Happy Fourth of July, RotoBallers, and happy 250th birthday to our nation! I hope your day is filled with fun, family, fireworks, and a little HR prop betting if you have time. The heat wave seems to be wrapping up soon, but we still have some major hitting weather across the country today. With balls flying out of parks every which way, it might be a bit easier than usual to get some winning HR bets down.
In this article, I'll be exploring the best spots to attack for home run props for this Saturday slate, including one long-shot doozy of a bet. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts discussing not only their favorite props but also the DFS slates.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 4, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/4/2026)
Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+205 Fanatics)
We'll start with the premier game of the afternoon, which is the Yankees/Twins matchup. The Yankees snapped their seven-game losing streak last night against the Twins, whom they've owned for a .777 winning percentage since 2002. Despite their recent offensive woes, the Yankees carry an IRT of 6.1 runs, and the park/weather factor is going to be helping big time as well.
The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium has always been one to amplify homers, and today we'll have 99-degree temps with the wind blowing straight out to right. The lefties on the Yanks' squad will have big-time chances to go yard, so we'll start with the newest star to come down the pipe in New York, Ben Rice.
Ben Rice puts the @Yankees in front! pic.twitter.com/M2ExArGuSc
— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2026
Rice has been amazing this season, posting a .936 OPS and .299 ISO with a 16.6% barrel rate. He hit his 24th homer last night, and I'm calling for number 25 tonight.
The Yankee first baseman has been even better this season against righties, with a 19.2% barrel rate, a .488 wOBA, and a .350 ISO against them. Zebby Matthews has largely controlled righties this season, but has allowed a 41% HHR and 18.9% barrel rate to lefties. I'm expecting a rough day from him and Rice to go deep.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 Fanatics)
All of my HR picks today are lefties, including the two long-shot choices below, and this one needs no introduction. Kyle Schwarber just continues to bash baseballs, and he's the first in the majors to reach 30 bombs. He has a robust .935 OPS and .320 ISO, and gets to take on the Royals in 90-degree heat with the wind blowing out.
Kyle Schwarber is the fastest @Phillies player to reach 30 HRs in a season by team games played (84) in franchise history! pic.twitter.com/NuiNI4UA5G
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2026
Schwarb is on a bit of a K binge with 12 strikeouts in five games, but he only needs one pitch to pay off this bet. He has a 23.5% barrel rate against righties this season after beating on them for a 24.7% barrel rate last year, and he also has a .304 ISO against them since the beginning of last year.
Michael Wacha has had a solid season, especially against lefties, but he may be overmatched by the weather and wind here. In addition, Schwarber has had Wacha's number for his career, posting a 1.277 OPS against him. Four of Schwarber's six hits against Wacha have been of the extra-base variety, and three have been homers. He also has a 4:7 K:BB ratio against Wacha, mitigating some of the strikeout concerns.
