PGA Best Bets: Novig Matchup Picks and Finishing Position Props for Valspar Championship

March 17, 2026

RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 Valspar Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.

Hi golf fans, and thanks for joining me again here at RotoBaller! This week, we'll take a look at some of the juicier matchup spots and finishing position props available for the Valspar Championship. After last week's exciting PLAYERS Championship, we have nine of the OWGR's top-25 golfers teeing it up at the notorious Copperhead Course.

This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Valspar Championship.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

PGA Tournament Matchup Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 3/17/2026. Odds are subject to change.

Corey Conners (-109 at Novig) OVER Ben Griffin

Most of the major books are offering Corey Conners vs. Keegan Bradley at the Valspar, but among those who are hanging Conners vs. Ben Griffin, this -109 number at Novig is the best you'll find.

This feels like two players who are trending in different directions. Following a breakthrough 2025 campaign and a solid start to 2026, Griffin has hit the skids since the PGA Tour schedule jumped to Florida. Conversely, the key markers in Conners' game have been pointing up since landing in the Sunshine State.

Griffin has lost strokes T2G, OTT, and on Approach in each of his last three starts, with his appearances at the API and PLAYERS ending in missed cuts. A Copperhead layout where he missed the cut last year isn't where you want to show up with ball-striking woes.

Conners has gained an average of 1.70 strokes Ball Striking in two Florida starts, and finished last week's PLAYERS ranked sixth in the field in SG: APP en route to a T13. The Canadian has recorded T21-or-better finishes in each of his last three Valspar appearances.

Brooks Koepka (+111 at Novig) OVER Keegan Bradley

I wrote up Brooks Koepka in this article last week as a viable longshot outright play. While Koepka didn't take home the win at The PLAYERS, we continued to see his game trending in the right direction.

He gained an impressive 2.20 strokes T2G last week at Sawgrass, finishing fifth in The PLAYERS field in SG: APP. A recent switch to a mallet putter has stabilized his performance on the greens, and Koepka boasts a T12 at the Copperhead Course in his last Valspar start.

Bradley heads to Palm Harbor mired in a brutal slump. He's made no secret about the fact that he's having trouble shaking off the Ryder Cup debacle that took place at Bethpage under his captaincy of the U.S. team. Since the Ryder Cup, the veteran has missed the cut in three of six starts while losing strokes on ball striking in each of his last four starts.

Keegan Bradley is still processing the Ryder Cup loss.

"It's been a little difficult. I'm still heartbroken from the Ryder Cup. So trying my best to separate myself and move on, but it's hard. I think about it a lot." pic.twitter.com/M0YLPDc8d1

— Cameron Jourdan (@Cam_Jourdan) March 13, 2026

His track record at Palm Harbor is more cause for pessimism. Bradley did log a runner-up finish in the 2021 edition of the Valspar, but he's missed the cuts in his last two appearances at the Copperhead Course and has failed to make the weekend in five of his eight career starts in the event.

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PGA Finishing Position Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 3/17/2026. Odds are subject to change.

Justin Thomas WINNER (+2281 at Novig)

Thomas profiles as a classic boom-or-bust option this week, which makes my favorite path pulling the trigger on an outright wager. He's a player who admittedly has a wide range of outcomes, but a win on this Copperhead layout where he's performed so well historically is certainly within reach at this +2281 Novig number that's as good as you'll find on him around the industry this week.

Justin Thomas with the early putter lift getting the fans amped up on 17 ⚡️😤

📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/jBVkBJYo9e

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 14, 2026

JT has been agonizingly close to winning this event on multiple occasions. He’s posted top-10 finishes in half of his eight career starts at the Copperhead Course, with a pair of finishes inside the top three since 2022. Many will still be in wait-and-see mode with Thomas, who missed the first two months of the year due to back surgery, but a T8 in last week's PLAYERS tells me he's ready to contend in the Valspar.

Austin Smotherman WINNER (+5782 at Novig)

Largely an unknown commodity to casual golf fans, Smotherman is a player who's been firmly on the radar for the sharps as of late. The 31-year-old runs hot and cold, but heads to Innisbrook on an epic heater that resulted in a T8 at The American Express earlier this year and ratcheted up another notch the minute he set foot on Florida soil.

Smotherman has been a ball-striking machine in 2026. Though the sample size is relatively small, he currently ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: T2G for the 2026 season. That elite ball-striking has led to some of the best results of his career this year, including the aforementioned T8 at AmEx, a runner-up finish at the Cognizant Classic, and a T13 in last week's loaded PLAYERS Championship.

The old saying in golf is that "ball-striking always travels," and that should undoubtedly be the case this week at the Copperhead Course. Smotherman has performed well in his two previous Valspar starts, recording a T25 in 2022 and a T36 in 2023.

More PGA Analysis and Picks

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