Sonny Gray 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: New Home Needs To Yield Better Fortune
The Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals this offseason to bolster their rotation. It raised some eyebrows, given Gray's two years in St. Louis weren't great. In 60 starts, Gray had a 4.07 ERA, with last year's 4.28 ERA being his highest in a season since 2018. Gray is coming off back-to-back 200-strikeout seasons, having only recorded one previously (2019). Last year's 26.7% K% was down from his 30.3% K% in 2024, but it still ranked in the 79th percentile. If we look a little deeper, it becomes clearer as to why Boston traded for Gray. Despite his so-so ERA, Gray had a 2.95 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA over the last two years. They rank third and fifth best, respectively, among all qualified pitchers and make him one of the unluckiest pitchers since 2023. Gray also minimizes fly balls, which will be important moving from a neutral ballpark to a much more hitter-friendly one. Gray picked up 27 wins with the Cardinals. The downside is that he'll be pitching in a tougher division. Gray should still pick up a solid number of wins, but improving on last year's 14 might be too far. If Gray's luck does turn around in Boston, then he will still be a good addition to your fantasy rosters.
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