5 Big-Name Players Who May Underdeliver - Overvalued Fantasy Baseball ADPs?

January 30, 2026

Jamie looks at 5 potential fantasy baseball busts, avoids, overvalued big-name players with expensive ADPs. Consider fading them in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts.

Spring training is looming, and we're starting to get some tangible information from early drafts. Those of you yet to draft should start to get an idea of where players are being taken, who to avoid, and who to target. Here, we're looking at five players who are overvalued in drafts.

Walking away from your drafts without reaching for a player is always a good thing. And being able to pass on someone you think is set to be a bust at that pick always feels nice. But that's not to say these players should be completely ignored. Just ignored at their current ADP (average draft position).

So remember, don't completely disregard this quintet. Just don't be afraid to pass on them at their current ADP. We're using the ADP data from NFBC (National Fantasy Championship) drafts. Don't forget to download our free mobile app with alerts and to follow the RotoBaller team on X for all your offseason news and articles.

Players Who May Underdeliver On ADP

Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 55.62

Anthony is currently the 13th outfielder being taken in drafts. While he is set to have a long and successful career in the majors, prospect hype seems to be driving up his draft day cost. Anthony debuted in 2025 and performed well. But not enough to justify his ADP.

In 71 games for the Red Sox, Anthony hit .292/.396/.463 with eight home runs, 32 RBI, 48 runs, and four stolen bases. His projections suggest we see something similar from Anthony in 2026, over a full season. ATC projections have Anthony with a .263/.356/.439 slash line, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 82 runs, and 10 steals.

You may think Anthony's projected batting average is a little low. But it's more in line with his .258 xBA (expected batting average) last year than what he actually hit. Coupled with his .404 BABIP last year, some batting average regression looks likely.

Anthony could hit for more power. He could show some more speed on the bases. He did have 18 homers and 21 steals in 2024 across the Double-A and Triple-A levels (119 games). In 2023, Anthony hit 14 home runs and had 16 stolen bases in 106 games in the minors.

His RBI and runs totals last year were impressive. Anthony is being penciled in by many as the Red Sox leadoff hitter in 2026, which will certainly help him score plenty of runs. But his projected RBI total also reflects that. His projected totals don't make Anthony a five-category contributor.

Unless he has a huge breakout season, Anthony looks like a player being drafted early because of hype. It's something we see every year. Prospects and young players get taken earlier and earlier in drafts as fantasy managers want the new shiny toy on their rosters. And, as we see every year, they end up being taken so early in drafts that any potential value is sucked out of them.

If we just look at some other outfielders and their ATC projections, we can find similar options considerably later in drafts. Jurickson Profar is projected for 18 homers, nine steals, and a .250 batting average. His current ADP is 179.07. Yes, Anthony is set for a better season. But 10-12 rounds better? I'm not so sure.

It's a similar story for Michael Harris II (96.51 ADP), who is projected for 19 homers, 18 steals, and a .265 batting average. The fewer runs Harris is projected to score doesn't offset the extra steals and over 40 picks between them.

Andy Pages is going even later (129.78 ADP). He's projected for 22 homers, 74 RBI, 72 runs, and 10 steals with a .255/.309/.441 slash line. Pages is also coming off a year of hitting .272/.313/.461 with 27 homers and 14 steals. Wouldn't you instead take Pages over 70 picks later?

There's no shortage of outfielders projected for at least 20 homers and 10 steals going later than Anthony in drafts. In some cases, much later. Anthony just feels like he's going to have to have a historic season, well above what the most optimistic fan could ask for, if he is to provide value on his ADP.

Carlos Estevez, RP, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 88.16

One thing to note is that closers tend to be drafted earlier in NFBC drafts. Even still, with Estevez being the 13th reliever taken in drafts on average, it feels like people are chasing his saves from 2025. He led the majors with 42 saves last year. As unlikely as that was, it's even more unlikely we see a repeat.

It wouldn't come as a huge surprise if Estevez doesn't even lead the Royals in saves. Before we go into some numbers, it's worth remembering that the Royals are bringing in their outfield walls by around 10 feet and lowering them by over a foot.

The graphic below shows the location of every ball put in play off of Estevez's pitching last year, overlayed on Kauffman Stadium before the changes. As we can see, making his home ballpark more hitter-friendly is set to lead to more home runs.

The reason the changes are more of an issue for Estevez is that he's predominantly a fly-ball pitcher. Estevez had a 51.6% FB% in 2025. Of the 144 relief pitchers with at least 50 innings, only eight had a higher fly-ball rate.

Three of those eight pitchers led their teams in saves, but it's far from ideal. And none of them need to deal with their home field's outfield walls being brought in and lowered. That's not the only red flag lingering over Estevez.

21 relievers recorded at least 20 saves in 2025. Estevez's 20.1% K% was the lowest of this group (and a career low). It ranked in the 30th percentile among qualified pitchers. That not only caps his fantasy value, but it's another far from ideal trait for a closer.

The final red flag is Estevez's underlying numbers. His 2.45 ERA last year was impressive. With a 4.95 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA, it seems a bit of a mirage. Estevez did have a 2.45 ERA in 2024 with a 4.09 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. Estevez has shown an ability to outperform what you would expect his ERA to be.

It's not like Estevez is a master of inducing weak contact. His 38.1% hard-hit rate ranked in the 68th percentile. Estevez also doesn't limit the walks. His 8.2% BB% ranked in the 44th percentile. Add everything together, and his ERA screams regression this year.

A more hitter-friendly ballpark, a declining strikeout rate, and an ERA set to increase all combine to make Estevez feel like a bust in 2026. Closers are set to be as volatile as ever in fantasy. Taking a "safer" option earlier or waiting a few more rounds just seems like a better option than taking Estevez at his current ADP.

More Fantasy Baseball ADPs to Consider Fading

While I believe in the talent of this trio, I doubt their ability to provide value at their ADP. I'd be much more inclined to draft them a couple of rounds later than where they're currently going and will be ignoring them at their current draft cost:

Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 49.65

I'm all for taking solid and dependable bats in the early rounds. Few hitters are as solid as Harper. Unfortunately, his health means he's not that dependable. He's averaged 134 games over the last three seasons. The good news is that Harper has still averaged 586 plate appearances since 2023.

Over the last three seasons, Harper has averaged 26 homers, 78 RBI, 80 runs, and 10 steals. All solid. But at a position of depth and with so many power options, those sorts of numbers feel a bit light for someone going in the first 50 picks of drafts.

Harper's .261 batting average in 2025 was his lowest since 2019. Harper is entering his 15th season in the majors, and with 1,785 games under his belt, it's fair to say he is wearing down a bit. That's not to say he should be written off. His ATC projection of 27 homers, 85 RBI, 84 runs, and nine steals is reachable.

Five other first basemen are being taken within 17 picks of Harper. All of them are projected for similar power numbers. You're banking on Harper to stay relatively healthy and reach double-digit steals. We're seeing signs of wear and tear from Harper, and he's not someone I'm comfortable drafting without a discount.

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers

ADP: 100.72

Speaking of players showing signs of wear and tear, Seager has averaged just 115 games over the last three seasons. Similar to Harper, Seager's batting average (.271) in 2025 was his lowest since 2018. When he's been on the field, Seager has remained one of the best hitters in baseball.

Seager also has to deal with hitting in one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. According to Statcast Park Factors, only two ballparks were less hitter-friendly for left-handed hitters in 2025.

That's in stark contrast to 2023, when Globe Life Field was the third most hitter-friendly ballpark for lefties. That year, Seager hit a career-high 33 homers in just 119 games. Unless the Rangers' ballpark reverts to its pre-2024 ways, Seager might struggle to reach 25 homers this year.

There is no shortage of talented shortstops, which is why Seager is the 11th being taken in drafts. It's a position where you can generally get good speed from. That's not something you'll get from Seager. You will need to ensure you have plenty of steals if you take Seager.

I'm not writing him off. And in specific builds, Seager can fit your roster perfectly. The big issue is whether he can stay on the field enough to make an impact. He didn't last year. If we see a repeat, Globe Life Field will need to be considerably more hitter-friendly to make Seager a worthwhile pick.

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 117.8

Glasnow is currently being drafted as an SP3. With his track record of injuries, it's tough to see how he can end the season as a top-30 starting pitcher. Glasnow made 18 starts in 2025 (90 1/3 innings). That came on the back of a 2024 season in which Glasnow made 22 starts (134 innings).

Since his last season with the Rays in 2023, we've seen some regression in Glasnow's numbers, too. Given that he returned from Tommy John surgery in 2023, it's no surprise we've seen Glasnow's numbers diminishing.

Glasnow's 2023 and 2024 numbers were similar. And while he had a better ERA last year, his xFIP and SIERA were considerably worse. That is unlikely to repeat, which is why his ATC projection is for a 3.65 ERA. Glasnow is also projected for 23 starts, which would actually be a career-high.

If we know we'd get ~25 starts from Glasnow in 2026, I'd have no problem drafting him at his current ADP. Setting a career-high in starts at 32 years old seems unlikely. More of the same looks likelier, and even if Glasnow still puts up good numbers, the quantity will be lacking to justify his current price.

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