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Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 11/5/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Happy Wednesday, Rotoballers! Welcome back to another edition of the NBA Props article. We split our bets on Monday, going 2-2-1, with Luka Doncic unfortunately getting ruled out. Injury news in Houston broke our way, and we hit our Tari Eason bet, but Jrue Holiday let us down for the first time all season.
We're right back at it tonight with a loaded 11-game slate featuring marquee names and high totals all over the board. More than half of the games this evening carry projected totals of at least 230 points, with Heat-Nuggets leading the way at 242.5. Luka Doncic is expected to return after resting on Monday, Austin Reaves remains questionable, and Anthony Edwards has been upgraded to questionable with a chance to make his return after missing the last four games.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Wednesday, November 5th. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats—to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed as well, but always shop around, as those odds change throughout the day as bets come in. Let's get to the picks!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Early-season NBA player props offer bettors a prime opportunity to get ahead of oddsmakers by capitalizing on new trends, unexpected rotations, and shifts in play style from last season. With teams still settling into their identities, sharp bettors can often find mispriced lines before the markets adjust.
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Karl-Anthony Towns over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118 DK)
- Jaylen Brown over 25.5 Points (-109 DK)
- Stephon Castle over 18.5 Points (-113 DK)
- Aaron Nesmith over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-106 FD)
- Jake LaRavia over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116 DK)
Karl-Anthony Towns over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118 DK)
Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns has had an uneven start to his season, hampered by a lingering quadriceps issue. He's played through the injury but is shooting just 41% from the field through seven games, which is well below his 52% career average. Despite a slow start, Towns has continued to dominate the boards, averaging 13.1 rebounds per game. With the boards and assists holding steady, Towns is averaging 36.6 PRA per game to begin the season, even with the rocky shooting performance.
Tonight, the Knicks will welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves to Madison Square Garden. Of course, the Wolves are the team that drafted Towns, who then spent nine seasons with the team before they traded him to New York. Minnesota has struggled defensively to begin this season, ranking just 22nd in defensive efficiency, and could again be without Anthony Edwards, who has missed the last four games. Towns has faced his former team just once since the trade, exploding for 32 points and 20 rebounds in that matchup. Whether the shooting form returns or not, Towns is in a great position to clear 36.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS VS. THE TIMBERWOLVES:
32 POINTS
20 REBOUNDS
6 ASSISTS
10/12 FG
5/5 3PREVENGE GAME 😤 pic.twitter.com/tlYuGhYUnN
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) December 20, 2024
Jaylen Brown over 25.5 Points (-109 DK)
The Celtics are enduring a bit of a reset year as they deal with roster turnover and the injury to Jayson Tatum. If they are going to contend this season, they will need a big step forward from Jaylen Brown, and he has quietly been very good this season. Brown has increased his scoring average to 26.8. He's shooting efficiently, and he's posted a massive 33.5% usage. Boston's 3-5 start is not ideal, but Brown has not been the issue.
Tonight's matchup against the Wizards sets up perfectly for Brown to keep rolling. The Wizards play at the second-fastest pace and rank 28th in defensive rating, a combination that should allow Jaylen Brown to post heavy volume and be extremely efficient. He's already scored 30+ points in four games this season, and it would not be a surprise to see him do it again in this matchup. Brown should comfortably clear 25.5 points.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Stephon Castle over 18.5 Points (-113 DK)
Victor Wembanyama has put the Spurs on the map as one of the most exciting young teams in the NBA, but we should not overlook the play of second-year guard Stephon Castle. The 21-year-old is averaging 20.0 points per game this season and has improved his shooting numbers across the board. The Spurs will need Castle to continue providing offense as their first-round selection this year, Dylan Harper, injured his calf and will miss a few weeks. Harper leaves behind a 25.3% usage rate that ranks third on the team (amongst regular rotation members) behind only Wemby and Castle. Naturally, the top two scorers will be relied upon to soak up even more of the scoring load in his absence.
Stephon Castle through six games this season:
20.0 PPG
6.2 RPG
5.3 APG
1.8 STL
55.4 FG%
34.6 3P%
63.0 FT%— NBA Retweet (@RTNBA) November 3, 2025
Tonight, the Spurs head out to Los Angeles for a marquee matchup with Luka Doncic and the Lakers. While LA has played well without LeBron James, their defense has been vulnerable and ranks just 19th in efficiency. With a solid matchup on tap, increased shooting efficiency, and potential for extra usage with Harper sidelined, Stephon Castle is a great bet to go over 18.5 points.
Aaron Nesmith over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-106 FD)
The Indiana Pacers have been decimated by injuries to start the season. They already knew they would be without star point guard Tyrese Haliburton this season, but the string of injuries that followed has been unexpected. All of Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin, and T.J. McConnell remain sidelined. Now, even replacements like RayJ Dennis and Quenton Jackson have dealt with injuries. Pascal Siakam could use some help to get this team out of the cellar, and Aaron Nesmith is basically the only other regular rotation player from last season who is healthy.
Nesmith has begun to take on a larger role recently, with his usage rising to 25.4% in his last outings, where he has averaged 24.0 points per game. He has also been more active on the glass in the last two games, securing a combined 13 rebounds. Tonight, his increased production could align with one of the best possible matchups in the league with the Nets in town. Brooklyn ranks dead last in defensive rating, and they have allowed the fifth-most rebounds in the league. This spot sets up perfectly for Nesmith to continue his ascent for the Pacers.
Jake LaRavia over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116 DK)
Jake LaRavia has seen his role grow steadily since his arrival in Los Angeles. He played just 16 minutes in the season opener, but has played at least 23 minutes in every game since. The Lakers have dealt with various injuries and rest situations along the way, but it's becoming clear LaRavia has played himself into a legitimate rotation spot even when they return to full strength.
Jake LaRavia last three games:
21.7 PPG
7.0 RPG
2.7 SPG
78.1% FG
66.7% 3PT pic.twitter.com/UCtOHzHWRN— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) November 3, 2025
Tonight, the Lakers remain without LeBron James, Gabe Vincent, and Maxi Kleber, while Austin Reaves is listed as questionable. Even if Reaves suits up, LaRavia should play in the minutes in the mid-20s with upside for 30 minutes. For the season, LaRavia is averaging 29.6 minutes, 12.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists -- a solid 20.7 PRA. There is a little wiggle room here, even if he doesn't quite reach that 29.6 minutes average. However, if Reaves ends up missing the game, which is quite possible given he just sat out Monday, LaRavia would be in line for 30+ minutes, and there would be extreme value on the over here.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
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Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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