RADIO
Nick Piotrowicz's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 4 of 2025. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising and falling fantasy values.
Welcome back to our fantasy football risers and fallers for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Three weeks into the 2025 season, we're beginning to get a feel for things in fantasy leagues. With enough of a sample size to make some educated decisions, the pieces are falling into place for your teams (or not).
We've seen some breakout rookies like receiver Emeka Egbuka and running back Cam Skattebo. We've seen some big injuries, with quarterback Joe Burrow (toe) and receiver CeeDee Lamb (ankle) among those currently on the shelf. We've even seen Russell Wilson wear out a welcome in a career-high three weeks.
But for better or worse, we still have a long way to go this season. Lineup decisions made in the early part of the season often can lead to big things down the road, so we'll take stock of the league and see who's rising, who's falling, and where things might be headed next. As always, thanks for reading.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Risers
Daniel Jones, QB - Indianapolis Colts
The best measure of how well Jones has played at the outset of the season isn’t a stat, but the total absence of the word “controversy.”
At the beginning of August, it was still open season as the Colts used training camp to determine a starter, but since tabbing Jones as QB1, you’ve barely heard about Anthony Richardson Sr. — because there’s been no reason to consider making a move.
Jones has top-10 finishes in all three weeks this season and has shown flashes of being his old self as a runner with 55 yards and three touchdowns.
Even better, he’s been a highly efficient passer. He’s completing more than 71% of his passes on an average of 29.3 attempts per game, has yet to throw an interception, and is likely to surpass 1,000 yards passing in Week 4. Frankly, he's been in Josh Allen territory through three weeks.
Daniel Jones looking a bit Josh Alleny this season pic.twitter.com/3hLig38JGR
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 22, 2025
For a player who was available to everyone during draft season and is still kicking around on more than a few waiver wires, Jones is going to enter Indy’s fourth game as a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
Is Jones likely to finish in the top five over 17 games? Probably not. But can he provide weekly value in Superflex formats and even as a week-to-week matchup play in one-QB formats? Absolutely.
Trey Benson, RB - Arizona Cardinals
For running backs, the best predictor of fantasy success is usually opportunity, and Benson has a rest-of-season value unlike anyone who might still be left on redraft league waiver wires.
Cardinals starter James Conner (ankle) is officially out for the year, and Benson is likely to see feature-back usage in the weeks to come with very little competition for touches. As the lead back in this offense, Conner finished as PPR running back No. 11 in 2024 and has continually seen a balanced workload that included 3.4 targets per game last season.
2nd year RB Trey Benson for 52 yards
AZvsNO on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/0kWYCp0G2e
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025
Even in a low-scoring game against San Francisco on Sunday, Benson played more than 80% of Arizona's snaps when Conner departed and earned 13 overall touches, which included three catches.
He’s as close to a 1:1 replacement as someone is likely to find at this point of the season, and for managers in any sort of a bind at running back, Benson is worth cranking the FAAB machine to 11.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seattle Seahawks
Two players in the NFL, according to Sumer Sports, have run more than 70 routes and ended up with more than four yards per route run: Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Seahawks drew some heat for dealing D.K. Metcalf to Pittsburgh in the offseason, but they're being proven correct in their assessment of Smith-Njigba being a legitimate No. 1 receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 323 yards receiving is the most ever by a Seahawks WR in the first three games of the season.
The previous record was 321 yards by Darrell Jackson in 2005.
JSN didn't play the 4th qtr and missed his 3rd straight 100+ yd game by 4 yards. pic.twitter.com/hA7lSvYEvT
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) September 22, 2025
For a player taken among the second wave of fantasy receivers — a 36.8 ADP on Sleeper, behind Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr., and Nico Collins — Smith-Njigba has been every bit of a WR1.
Managers who drafted him are getting an outstanding ROI with first-rate points at a second-rate price.
Jake Ferguson, TE - Dallas Cowboys
It's a scenario made in fantasy heaven: A team with a steady quarterback, a lousy defense, and an injured No. 1 receiver who suddenly needs its already involved tight end even more.
Ferguson has been getting boatloads of targets from Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, raking in 32 targets in just three weeks. Even better, he's catching more than 84% of them, meaning he's vacuuming in points in PPR leagues, especially.
#Cowboys Jake Ferguson among all tight ends after Week 3 per PFF:
32 targets (1st)
27 receptions (1st)
183 receiving yards (2nd)
85 yards after contact (6th)
4 contested catches (T-1st)In CeeDee Lamb’s absence, Ferguson will be in line for even more opportunities. pic.twitter.com/IiJ6nZmI88
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) September 22, 2025
Is it a good sign for the Cowboys that they're relying on a ton of underneath targets to the tight end? Probably not!
But it's a great sign for those who took a late draft flier on Ferguson or got him on the waiver wire.
With CeeDee Lamb (ankle) facing a medium-term absence, Ferguson should see a nice floor of targets that will keep him in starting lineups.
Other Fantasy Football Risers:
Week 4 Fantasy Football Fallers
C.J. Stroud, QB - Houston Texans
Stroud arrived ahead of schedule, taking a Texans team that was expected to be bad to a surprising AFC South title in 2023. Despite two brutal injuries at receiver and a shaky offensive line, he helped Houston repeat again in 2024.
But now the alarm bells are sounding, and Stroud's fantasy value keeps plummeting.
Through three weeks, Stroud has yet to finish higher than QB23 — meaning he's in the range of not being a starting option even in Superflex leagues. He has more interceptions (three) than touchdown passes (two), and the Texans' offense looks lost in every way.
His expected points added per play are in the neighborhood of cast-offs, has-beens, and never-weres.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud ranks 28th in EPA/dropback among the 33 QBs with at least 300 pass attempts since last season.
That only puts Stroud above these QBs:
◽️ Joe Flacco
◽️ Cooper Rush
◽️ Gardner Minshew
◽️ Spencer Rattler
◽️ Will Levis pic.twitter.com/P5SH434lOy— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) September 23, 2025
The Houston offensive line looks even worse than a season ago, running back Joe Mixon (foot/ankle) doesn't appear anywhere close to playing, receiver Tank Dell (knee) will likely miss the whole season, and Stroud doesn't appear to have many dynamic playmakers outside of receiver Collins.
The winless Titans are next, but it's getting harder and harder to trust Stroud in any format with each passing week.
Adam Thielen, WR - Minnesota Vikings
Have you seen this man?
To say Thielen has not been part of the action in Minnesota would be putting it mildly. The veteran receiver and one-time Vikings star came back for a reunion, but through three weeks, it hasn't led to any production.
Outside of a key two-point conversion in Minnesota's dramatic comeback in Week 1 against Chicago, Thielen has been a non-factor. He has six total targets — he dropped two of them — and two catches for 26 yards.
The veteran is on track to have his lowest receiving numbers since he was primarily a special teamer in the opening two years of his career.
For what it's worth, Adam Thielen's 38.7 PFF grade on Sunday is the lowest mark of his entire career in a game where he played at least 10 snaps.
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) September 22, 2025
With No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison (suspension) officially back in Week 4, tight end T.J. Hockenson coming off his best game of the season, and Minnesota playing with either a backup quarterback or a first-time starter, it's certainly realistic that Thielen's entire season looks like his first three weeks.
The scary part? Thielen played 81% and 75% of the Vikings' snaps the past two games. Pass protection has been a major issue for the Vikings, to be sure, but now in the shadow of multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers, Thielen is drop-worthy in redraft leagues.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB - New York Giants
If you can't make the team from the training room, it's also going to be tough to fend off the guy currently taking your job from there, too.
The aforementioned Skattebo has been one of the lone bright spots for the winless New York Giants, showing out on national TV on Sunday with 121 total yards on just 16 touches.
Worse for Tracy (shoulder), the injury is only making the distribution of touches more lopsided. Tracy dislocated his shoulder in the game and was ruled out, and is now expected to miss multiple weeks.
Doctors believe Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. is expected to be sidelined two to four weeks due to the dislocated shoulder injury he suffered Sunday night vs. Kansas City, per sources. With Tracy out, the Giants are expected to lean on rookie RB Cam Skattebo and veteran RB Devin… pic.twitter.com/pRUC4Vif8V
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 23, 2025
The breakout and the injury happening at almost the same time points to Skattebo, not anyone else, being the back to roster out of the Giants' backfield.
Jaydon Blue, RB - Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys went into the offseason as one of the more interesting backfields in the league. The Cowboys moved on from Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle in back-to-back years, leaving a clear opening for the emergence of a running back who was not on the roster last year.
Unfortunately for the managers who saw stars in their eyes on draft night, the only opening filled by Blue has been inside the team's inactives graphic every week.
Javonte Williams, overlooked on a one-year deal, has been by far the best fantasy asset in the Cowboys' backfield. Williams is averaging more than 18 touches per game and is currently fantasy RB7, while Miles Sanders drew 12 touches in Week 3 as the preferred second option.
Blue, a fifth-round pick earlier this year, has been a healthy inactive three weeks in a row. He's an easy drop in redraft formats.
Other Fantasy Football Fallers:
More Fantasy Football Analysis
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