James Cook - 2025 Fantasy Football Busts and Overvalued Draft Picks

James Cook is a fantasy football bust and overvalued draft pick to avoid in 2025. Read the fantasy football outlook and draft advice for the Buffalo Bills running back.

RotoBaller Ranking (half-PPR): RB14

Fantasy Draft Analysis: He can't keep getting away with this! Last season, I faded Cook because of his lack of red-zone work. In 2023, he ceded work to Latavius Murray of all people.

But then last season, the Bills proceeded to give their 190-pound back 48 red-zone carries after having just 31 the year prior. He tied Gibbs and Henry with a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns, but his touchdown rate is completely unsustainable.

James Cook REACHES FOR THE TD

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— NFL (@NFL) January 27, 2025

You might not believe it based on his fantasy output, but Cook's opportunity decreased from 2023 to 2024. He had a lower snap share (55.1% vs. 49.2%), opportunity share (62.4% vs. 58.9%), and route participation rate (45.9% vs. 27.4%). That led to fewer carries and targets per game.

His touches also decreased significantly after the Bills' bye week. Before the bye, he averaged 16.2 touches per game. After the bye, that number dropped to just 12.8 touches per game. That's because rookie Ray Davis and pass-catching specialist Ty Johnson were getting more involved in the game plan. And for good reason.

Per Fantasy Points Data, Davis bested Cook in both missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24 vs. 0.20) and percentage of yards that come after contact (65.2% vs. 50.9%). He's good at football. Meanwhile, Johnson received the 10th-highest PFF receiving grade in 2024 (73.0), just behind Jahmyr Gibbs (74.8).

One should reasonably expect Davis to continue seeing more and more work alongside Cook this season. And with Johnson thriving as a receiver, Cook's usage in the passing game could continue to fall as well. Those factors, along with Cook's unsustainable TD rate and Josh Allen's prowess at the goal line, make Cook an easy fade at ADP this season.

- Adam Koffler

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