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Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 13. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Welcome to our sixth edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. Our guiding light for these articles has been the expected stats, as expected stats help us uncover who's benefiting from luck and who has a little more luck coming their way.
Heading into Week 13, there's still a bit of data we've got to dig through to determine who's benefiting from luck and who's getting true results. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.
We'll break down four more hitters who are important contributors to their lineups, yet most of them often get overlooked. We will find out who's real and who isn't between Brandon Nimmo, Michael Busch, Yandy Diaz, and Josh Naylor. Now, let's get into it. All stats in this article reflect games played through Monday, 6/23.
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Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
2025 Stats: .784 OPS, 123 OPS+, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 37 R, 6 SB
Brandon Nimmo has been a thorn in the side of opposing pitchers for years. Generally a tough out, the lefty has succeeded throughout his 10-year career with a stingy plate approach that's resulted in a consistently high walk rate with a ton of contact. It's made him an absolute pain to face.
Last season, he saw a drop in production, posting a 108 OPS+. That's fine for most hitters, but it followed four straight seasons of an OPS+ of 125 or better. This season, he's back up to a 123 OPS+. So, is he headed back to his ultra-productive ways?
Brandon Nimmo goes deep! pic.twitter.com/abk6WVkgpz
— Captain (2025 is not el troll szn) (@El_Troll_SZN) June 21, 2025
We'll start with his plate approach. We're seeing a drop in his strikeout rate this season of about 5 percent, going from 23.8 percent last year to 18.8 percent this year. That's a good sign as he's generally posted a strikeout rate below 20 percent for the past five seasons.
However, we're seeing a drop in his walk rate. He had been at 11.6 percent last season, and that's dropped to 8.1 percent this season. Outside of his first season in 2016, this would mark a career low for the 32-year-old. Some of this can be attributed to an increase in swings and an increase in chases. His swing rate of 47.3 percent would be a career high. Same with his chase rate of 24.8 percent.
For perspective, the chase rate isn't ultra concerning as he still ranks in the 70th percentile. So even though it's an increase by his standards, he's still not getting fooled as often as a majority of MLB hitters. It's just outside the norms that he's set for himself before the last two seasons.
In looking at his batted ball profile, we don't see drastic changes in his fly-ball and ground-ball rates. He's hitting more grounders (44.8 percent vs 42.1 percent last season) and more fly balls as well (40.8 percent vs. 38 percent last season). Neither move the needle all that much, but it's coming at the cost of fewer line drives. His line drive rate has dropped from 20 percent last year to 14.3 percent this year.
But that's not all bad news, as he's also seeing his HR/FB rate increase. It's gone from 14.6 percent to 16.5 percent. That 16.5 percent rate would rank third best in his career outside of 2018 (17 HRs) and the shortened 2020 season (eight HRs). The key difference here is Nimmo's fly-ball rate is way up from those seasons, so he's well ahead of the pace for HRs and is projected to finish with around 24 or 25 HRs this season.
As we jump into the expected stats, we can see that there's a slight amount of positive regression heading his way. He currently has a .339 wOBA that's paired with a .345 xwOBA. The gap's not huge but it's pointing in the right direction. His .269 BABIP would also indicate that he's gotten unlucky on balls in play, meaning positive regression is a bit more likely.
When it comes to pitch mix, we're seeing a pretty noticeable change in results on four-seam fastballs from year to year. It continues to be the pitch that pitchers attack him with the most. He's posting just a .330 wOBA against it, but that also has a .398 xwOBA. He's gotten very lucky with this pitch, and it's one he did well against last season (.390 wOBA, .377 xwOBA). Luck should turn around for him here soon.
Two pitches he's crushed this year have been sinkers and changeups. Pitchers throwing sinkers to him have gotten rocked for a .469 wOBA that's paired with a .440 xwOBA. If they've tried throwing him changeups, he's tagged those for a .609 wOBA and a .515 xwOBA. Sure, both of those point to some negative regression, but those are ridiculously high floors on those two pitches.
Brandon Nimmo goes yard! pic.twitter.com/zfZHnp6yqa
— SNY (@SNYtv) June 12, 2025
If pitchers want to succeed against Nimmo, then they should focus on breaking balls of all kinds, as it's a clear weak point in his batting arsenal this season. Sliders (.254 wOBA, .241 xwOBA), curves (.261 wOBA, .239 xwOBA), and sweepers (.298 wOBA, .247 xwOBA) are clear areas that Nimmo needs to improve on. Each of those plays off four-seamers and is likely to be something pitchers move to instead of changeups.
Verdict: All in all, it appears that what we're getting out of Nimmo this season is rather true. He's hitting the ball hard enough to have some positive regression heading his way, but that can change if pitchers start to throw him more breaking balls. If he stops chasing and starts getting his normal amount of walks, then that can help things a ton, but if not, then that positive regression may not come. Hold onto him and see how things go.
Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
2025 Stats: .870 OPS, 148 OPS+, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 32 R, 3 SB
It's easy to get enamored with the Cubs lineup and the big names that get all the shine, but Michael Busch is an incredibly important piece to this Cubs lineup that's been incredibly effective this season. Busch has been very underrated in this lineup. As our own Eric Cross pointed out, he's surpassing both his career marks and league-average marks this season.
Michael Busch appreciation post.
267 PA, .272/.367/.509, 12 HR
14.4% BRL, 91.1 mph AVG EV, 46.6% HH
11.2% BB, 21.7% K, 84% Z-Con, 76% Contact, 20.6% ChaseAll metrics above are both better than 2024 and better than MLB average in 2025.#BeHereForItpic.twitter.com/BVEm3rFcAQ
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 22, 2025
The big callout before going any deeper is that Busch is currently in a platoon role with Justin Turner at first base. He's at a clear advantage, though, as he gets to face righties, so we're going to see him get more ABs more often than Turner. Additionally, Busch has been significantly more productive than Turner this year. So even though he'll be limited in his appearance against southpaws, he's the much better option of the two.
Starting with his plate approach, his walk rate is the same as last year, sitting at 11.1 percent. Where we see a major difference is in his strikeout rate, which has dropped from 28.6 percent to 22.5 percent. He's simply whiffing less, and it's turning into good results.
From a batted ball perspective, we don't see much change from season to season. Ground balls are about the same (38.5 percent vs. 39.2 percent), fly balls are pretty close together (42 percent vs. 40.4 percent), and line drives are close also (19.5 percent vs. 20.5 percent). Even his HR/FB rate is about the same (16.4 percent vs. 15.4 percent).
So the main reason we're seeing his production increase so much from last season is an increase in hard-hit percentage (46.3 percent) and barrel rate (14.3 percent). It also doesn't hurt to hit behind guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Over 40 percent of his PAs have been with runners on and that can be an advantage with pitchers who don't like pitching out of the stretch.
As we dig into the expected stats, we can start to see that he's got a small amount of positive regression heading his way. His .377 wOBA is paired with a .388 xwOBA, which ranks in the 92nd percentile. Some of that may be balanced out by his .319 BABIP, but he also posted a .322 BABIP last season, so he may just be a player whose BABIP sits above .300 more often than not.
Pitchers have generally attacked Busch with four-seamers and sliders, making up for 46 percent of the pitches he sees. He's hitting four-seamers for a .343 wOBA and a .379 xwOBA, pointing toward positive regression. It's similar to his results from last season, in which he hit for a .350 wOBA and a .359 xwOBA.
Sliders have been his bread and butter, though. He's hit them for a solid .402 wOBA, and that's paired with a .421 xwOBA. This is a huge area that Busch has improved in, as last season he only hit sliders for a .282 wOBA with a .233 xwOBA. This isn't the only pitch that's driven his progression, though.
Michael Busch goes GRAND. pic.twitter.com/LdKtotBZv4
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 3, 2025
He's also seen an incredible improvement against changeups. Last season, he hit them for a .364 wOBA and a .323 xwOBA. Respectable, but maybe he got lucky. This season, he's hitting changeups for a .610 wOBA and a .575 xwOBA. That's a massive increase, and pitchers desperately need to find a different weapon to use against him.
The two realistic options pitchers could turn to to get Busch out more often would be sinkers and sweepers. He sees sinkers the third most of any pitch and hits them for a .283 wOBA (.273 xwOBA). Sweepers are one of his worst pitches, hitting them for just a .145 wOBA (.166 xwOBA). However, he only sees sweepers 4.7 percent of the time, and it's the pitch he sees the least. I'd suspect that pitchers with good sweepers try to use it against him more often, though the line between sweepers and sliders can be a bit thin.
Verdict: The results we're seeing from Busch are true, and he even has a bit of positive regression coming to him. With the comfort of hitting in the middle of such a productive lineup, he's likely to get pitchers when they're in uncomfortable positions with runners on base. It also doesn't hurt to call Wrigley Field home, especially when the wind starts blowing out. Buy into Busch and reap the benefits.
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Stats: .794 OPS, 123 OPS+, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 35 R, 3 SB
Death, taxes, and Yandy Diaz being a major contributor to the Rays offense. Some things just never change, and 2025 is no different in regards to Diaz's contributions. They're a bit muted compared to what they were a couple of seasons ago, but a 123 OPS+ is still nothing to sneeze at. So, let's see how he's getting there.
Let's start with his plate approach. Diaz has always been a low strikeout guy, but he's cut that rate down even further, dropping from 15.3 percent last season to 13.8 percent this season. Unfortunately, we are also seeing his walk rate drop, sinking to 6.3 percent this year compared to 8.1 percent last season. Every other season of his career outside of 2018, he's been able to post a walk rate of 10 percent or better.
As was the case with Nimmo, part of this is because Diaz is simply swinging more. He's seen his swing rate rise from 41.3 percent in 2022 to 46.1 percent this season. That's been increasing every season and is important because his walk rate has decreased every season since 2022 as well. His walk rate in 2022 was up to 14 percent, so the drop to 6.3 now marks a major change in his approach.
A WALK? NAH A HR BY YANDY DIAZ pic.twitter.com/AckeyRop8H
— Trust in God 💚 (@briankim_tsu) June 21, 2025
But it's not all doom and gloom for Diaz. His batted ball profile does look very similar to his rates from last season, posting a nearly identical ground-ball rate (54.2 percent vs. 54.7 percent). While a high ground-ball rate usually isn't a good thing for most hitters, Diaz has been able to succeed with a career 53.1 percent ground-ball rate. So, it's less concerning here.
The fly-ball rate has increased by 1 percent while the line drive rate has decreased by 1 percent. Neither move the needle. But the main difference is an increase in HR/FB rate with a jump from 10.6 percent to 16.2 percent. That's reminiscent of his 2023 rate (17.7 percent) when he smacked 22 HRs. With his current number at 12, FanGraphs' models project him to finish with 21-22 HRs, so his 2023 numbers are a good benchmark for us.
Now let's move on to the expected stats. Diaz is currently posting a .342 wOBA to go along with a .371 xwOBA. That's a pretty big jump in positive regression for us to expect with an xwOBA that ranks in the 83rd percentile. With a BABIP of .295, that may negate some of the positive regression, but it does point to the fact that Diaz has been getting unlucky.
As we look into the pitches he faces, it's very easy to see where much of that positive regression will come from. He faces sinkers the most, seeing them 25.9 percent of the time. He's hitting them for a .280 wOBA that's paired with a .346 xwOBA. That won't make him otherworldly at the plate, but it's going to provide a really good boost for him to simply get a few more base knocks that find holes.
YANDY DIAZ
pic.twitter.com/qrdY3oNXRn— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) April 14, 2025
The best pitch Diaz hits is four-seamers, which he sees just as often as sinkers at 25.1 percent. He's crushing these, though, with a .481 wOBA and a .510 xwOBA. Pitchers need to use four-seamers to set up the rest of their arsenal, and Diaz is making them pay whenever they make mistakes.
Most pitches Diaz is facing have positive regression coming for them, though not with any xwOBA numbers that make your eyes pop. One pitch he's been getting lucky with is changeups. He's hitting those for a .339 wOBA that's paired with a .280 xwOBA. That will balance out some of the positive regression we're expecting from sinkers, but since he only sees changeups at a 7.8 percent rate, the damage will be minimal.
Pitchers will likely start to throw Diaz more cutters and sweepers as they're both pitches he's struggling against and won't be expected to crush even after positive regression. Cutters have a .228 wOBA and a .280 xwOBA, while sweepers have a .221 wOBA with a .256 xwOBA against him. That's still positive regression, but the damage will be limited if pitchers keep attacking him with it.
Verdict: Diaz is expecting positive regression, though I wouldn't assume that the jump in production is going to be as high as the numbers project. He's hitting the ball harder and has more luck coming his way, but I'd expect that he's going to get just a bit ahead of where he's at today. Expect his 123 OPS+ to jump up to 130 or so, which is still a killer number that fantasy managers will be thrilled for him to have.
Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Stats: .824 OPS, 128 OPS+, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 41 R, 10 SB
A key piece of past Cleveland teams, Josh Naylor, was dealt to Arizona this offseason. So far, it's been paying dividends for the D-backs. Naylor has been a key contributor in the middle of the lineup and is third in RBI while hitting 18 doubles, the most on the D-backs. As long as things keep up, this would mark his fourth straight season with an OPS+ of 118 or better, so let's see how he's gotten there.
Josh Naylor is a career .342 hitter vs the White Sox w/ a career 1.014 OPS at Guaranteed Rate Field pic.twitter.com/R4zsm0c2kp
— Goldschmidt Happened (@GoldyHappens) June 24, 2025
To start, he's putting more balls in play overall. His walk rate, which has never been all that high, has dropped from 9.2 percent to 7.9 percent. He's also seen his strikeout rate drop from 16.6 percent to 12.9 percent. Being very much a ball-in-play type of hitter his whole career, this isn't drastically off the mark for what we expect from him.
From a batter's ball perspective, not much has changed with his move from Progressive Field to Chase Field. He's got a ground-ball rate of 46.6 percent, a fly-ball rate of 35.3 percent, and a line drive rate of 18.1 percent. The big thing we can notice with his batted ball profile is that his HR/FB rate has dropped from 18.6 percent last season to 10.2 percent this season. Naylor's career HR/FB mark sits at 14 percent, so it's certainly down from his career norms.
He did put up two seasons in Cleveland with a HR/FB rate just under 12 percent, resulting in HR totals of seven in 2021 and 17 in 2023. That 2021 season was cut short due to an ankle injury, hence the low number. FanGraphs' models project Naylor to finish with a HR total around 20. Not bad, but certainly not a number you wanted to see after putting up 31 HRs last season.
That drop is most likely due to a decrease in barrel rate. Naylor had an 8.4 percent barrel rate last season and it's dropped to 6.0 percent this season. Neither number is spectacular, but it certainly hurts from a home run perspective.
It's also not due to a change in home field. Per Baseball Savant, if Naylor had played all his games at Progressive Field this season, he'd only have four HRs compared to his current mark of nine. He does see a rather big jump in production at home compared to the road (.955 OPS at home, .696 OPS on the road), and that may be something to factor in as he gets used to more National League stadiums and competition.
JOSH NAYLOR WALK OFF GRAND SLAM!!!
— 🌵 Mr. Az (@MrAzSports) June 10, 2025
As we dive into the expected stats, Naylor's numbers look rather true. He's posting up a .358 wOBA with a .354 xwOBA. Slight negative regression may happen, but it shouldn't be detrimental to his production. His BABIP of .325 points toward a potential dip as well, so it may be safer to assume he's overachieving. He did post up a .326 BABIP with Cleveland in 2023, but the only other time he's had a BABIP above .300 was his rookie year in San Diego.
As we look at how pitchers attack him, we can see that five pitches make up the majority of what he sees. The top two are four-seamers and sliders. These both have rather true numbers attached to them. He hits four-seamers for a .343 wOBA with a .350 xwOBA and sees them 28.4 percent of the time. A clear strength, though not overwhelming. He hits sliders for a .280 wOBA and a .277 xwOBA, a clear weakness that he sees 16.4 percent of the time.
Now, for the next two pitches that are clear strengths for the lefty, though both have sizable regression gaps. These would be sinkers (.463 wOBA, .403 xwOBA) and curveballs (.357 wOBA, .497 xwOBA). While both have big gaps between them, both will be strong pitches for him to hit against with high floors. He sees sinkers at a 13.4 percent rate and curves at an 11.3 percent rate. So, some of that will balance out, but to expect a wOBA over .400 for any pitch means it's something you're going to crush.
JOSH NAYLOR RAKES
BACK TO BACK TO BACK HOMER DAYS pic.twitter.com/OfS0EHy6pl
— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) April 17, 2025
One pitch that Naylor is going to struggle against soon is sweepers. He's currently smoking them for a .371 wOBA but that's expected to drop sharply as it's paired with a .291 xwOBA. He only sees them 8.6 percent of the time but it's something he's been capitalizing on and clearly has had luck associated with it.
The last couple things to mention about Naylor's performance are a couple things out of his control. The first is that he's been dealing with shoulder injuries as of late and was removed from Monday's game with shoulder discomfort. He's also been rumored to potentially be traded by the D-backs before the upcoming trade deadline, as his contract expires at the end of the season. A change in scenery could certainly affect his production.
Verdict: There are a lot of weird things happening between the lines with Naylor's stats, but ultimately, they are all balancing each other out. Based on the semi-high BABIP number, along with the gap in home and road splits, I wouldn't be surprised if the slight negative regression that his xwOBA is predicting could be a bit sharper. That's not going to kill off his production much, though, and expecting an OPS+ of 120 or so should be the goal for Naylor. Don't sell Naylor quite yet, but don't overreact if you're looking to snag him from another fantasy manager's roster.
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