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John breaks down dynasty fantasy football busts and avoids in 2025 dynasty fantasy football league start-up drafts. His overvalued players for dynasty leagues.
The startup draft for dynasty fantasy football leagues is unequivocally the most important single event in any league for fantasy managers. So obviously, busting on your picks can be pretty catastrophic. However, with ADP largely dictating who players draft, many unwittingly fall into traps.
There are landmines in every year's drafts, yet many fantasy managers find it challenging to break from consensus rankings and solely view the value of their picks by the number assigned to them in rankings. It's challenging to dedicate a significant amount of time to researching the subject, so it can be difficult to identify the duds.
But I've dedicated the better part of the last year primarily to evaluating and scrutinizing players and their values in an attempt to make it easier on you. And I, of course, because I like playing fantasy football as well! So let's dive into five dynasty fantasy football busts in startup drafts.
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Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
There are times when NFL teams absolutely scream at the top of their lungs -- figuratively, of course -- about what they think of the players on their roster. The Bears did just this in the 2025 NFL Draft. A new coaching regime is in town, with former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson now the Bears' head coach.
The first thing Johnson did in the draft was to draft two pass-catchers with his first two picks. At the 10th overall spot, Chicago chose tight end Colston Loveland, an elite mismatch weapon and the best TE prospect in the draft. In the second round, they selected WR Luther Burden III, the draft's most explosive after-catch prospect.
Colston Loveland is a WR in a TE body. Mismatch nightmare with rare versatility.
Bears got it right. #DaBears #Bears pic.twitter.com/jqmZmjlCpI
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) April 25, 2025
If we take a step back, disregard Odunze's draft capital and the hype he received coming into the league, and really think about what the Bears are saying here, the answer isn't overly optimistic. WR DJ Moore clearly outperformed Odunze last season, and if the two were really that good, why would Chicago signal otherwise?
Odunze was disappointing in his rookie season. Blame the coaching all you want, but not being able to decisively outperform a 32-year-old Keenan Allen was concerning. Allen's departure was regarded as the only thing needed for that to change, but now there's more target competition.
Rome Odunze as the WR18 on KTC (dynasty rankings) is a little surprising to me. I get the upside with his profile/Ben Johnson coming into town, and I did really like him coming out of college.
However, Rome finished 2024 with just an 18% TPRR and 1.37 YPRR, both rather…
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) February 16, 2025
Odunze didn't excel at anything in his first season. A significant portion of the blame lies with quarterback Caleb Williams, who was highly inaccurate in his first season, even when receivers were open and he had a clean pocket. So even when the pass-catchers and offensive line do their jobs perfectly well, Williams could still struggle.
As both Loveland and Burden acclimate to the NFL and refine their games, things will only get worse for Odunze. Even if the team trades away or cuts Moore at some point, Odunze could easily become the team's third receiving option. So I see little reason to draft him.
Cole Kmet had a nice day today. Got moved around a lot in alignment and motion and caught several balls.
We should be seeing a lot of 12 personnel this year. #DaBears #Bears
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) May 28, 2025
As if it couldn't get any worse, word on the street is that Chicago would be using a lot more two-tight end sets. That means two, not three, WRs on the field. That's really bad. A trade to a team with a less crowded pass-catcher room would be nice, but that could also be a few years down the road, and that's not something you should count on.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
Having a rookie on this list basically insinuates that I think that player will be a bust. While that is true for T-Mac, there are other reasons I don't like him as a fantasy asset right now. But first things first. McMillan isn't explosive enough and doesn't possess the skills to play a true "X" receiver role.
He didn't test at the 2025 NFL Combine because he knew his 40-yard dash would be too slow. Hand-timed 40s are much faster than laser-timed, often by a margin of 0.2-0.3 seconds, as research shows. McMillan's agent tried to convince scouts that he ran a 4.48, and that's been plastered all over social media, but it's false.
Tetairoa McMillan doesn't pace his routes very well. Is this supposed to be trickery? He has one speed when he runs his routes. Either this DB is a star (he's not) or this route just isn't good. Being 6'4" doesn't make this better. pic.twitter.com/T0CEGBPaoG
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025
When I evaluate players, I try my best to completely disregard consensus rankings and evaluations and simply watch the tape. I was struck by T-Mac's various flaws, which seem to have been verily glossed over by the majority of rookie and draft coverage. There's a lot to hate about his game.
For being tabbed as an elite route-runner for his size, there's very little subtlety to his game. He struggles to pace his routes, instead often just having one speed to operate in. Of course, he looked good against vastly inferior athletes, whom he played most of the season.
Tetairoa McMillan screen pass against unblocked defenders vs NAU and Tre Harris screen pass against unblocked defenders vs LSU. Both hung out to dry against 2 defenders. One of many clips that show me Harris is just a better WR. pic.twitter.com/eOOoXAR3R7
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025
But I just couldn't get over the multitude of hideous reps he put on tape. Effort was often a problem for him, but he didn't do much when he wasn't put in a very advantageous position from the start. McMillan is not elusive in the open field. The size doesn't seem to help much in the strength department, either.
He's at his best when he gets the ball in his hands with space to work or gets free releases over the middle of the field. Here, his quickness and catch radius are crucial. But along the boundaries, on vertical routes, and when asked to beat athletic NFL defensive backs in 1-on-1 situations, I don't think he'll be impressive.
Can't get over some of Tetairoa McMillan's blunders and low-effort plays. Here he trips himself up on the most basic of releases. Sloppy footwork to trip over the ground before even starting his route pic.twitter.com/Z7GBjKT4m2
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025
After thorough film evaluations, I came out loving Houston Texans WR Jayden Higgins a lot more. Higgins is the same height as McMillan, and while he faces stiffer target competition on his team, it's better to bet on the more talented players. Higgins is at least a tier above McMillan from my evaluations.
The Carolina Panthers have been a poverty organization of late. Quarterback Bryce Young has been mostly horrible in his career, and despite a "resurgence" last season, against a handful of bad and injured defenses.
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Another rookie I have zero interest in drafting anywhere is Johnson. My independent evaluations, like I stated, often lead me to vastly different conclusions on players. I was utterly shocked at how poorly my film grade for Johnson compared to the hype he was receiving.
And it makes sense that he's been pretty hyped. After all, he did put up big numbers in his final college season. But that's the only thing he did that's impressive. Unless you count the 100 times that he ran through gaping holes his offensive line opened up for him.
Good vision from Kaleb Johnson, or knowing that if he waits the defenders will block the defense so well that no one has a shot at a good tackle attempt and he has wide open green grass to run? Most of Johnson's big runs are perfectly or near-perfectly blocked pic.twitter.com/Metr9Ec4pq
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
I have never seen a back be so fortunate to have such insanely sublime blocking put up for him. Johnson rarely had to do much on his big runs other than run in straight or slightly curved lines while huge swaths of real estate opened up for him like it was the Wild West all over again.
Great blocking again opens up a huge hole. Two defenders are blocked well enough that they barely get a hand on him. More green grass to run through pic.twitter.com/aZo5nGkS4L
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
Johnson had many explosive runs that were completely dictated by the blocking in front of him. No, this is not an RB having good vision. He's likely told before the play which way to run, and it's not hard to see gaps that are that big. Any RB in the NFL could see these holes and exploit them.
Johnson brings nothing to the table other than durability, I guess. He has poor vision, is horrendous at breaking trip attempts, is very easy to bring down the vast majority of the time, doesn't seem to have any instincts, and loves nothing more than to run into the backsides of his offensive linemen.
For how much he's praised for his tackle breaking, Kaleb Johnson seems to go down every time he's tripped. Just get a hand on his leg and you can bring him down. OL opens up a huge hole that could've been a massive run here. pic.twitter.com/gbzjyHTJ17
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
Feel free to scroll through my various threads about Kaleb, which are on my X media page. There are plenty more examples of Johnson's ineptitude. I'm not drafting him anywhere.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Njigba's 2024 season might have been a fluke. Former Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith played very well given the situation. Wide receiver D.K. Metcalf got injured and essentially became a decoy, and Seattle's offense passed the ball at a rate that exceeded expectations.
Now, the team has signed another slot WR in Cooper Kupp, made a QB change to Sam Darnold, who is horrific under pressure, and still has an awful offensive line, which will exacerbate the Darnold problem. In addition, Seattle's head coach, Klint Kubiak, calls an extremely run-heavy offense.
2024 offensive personnel rates for the Seahawks and Klint Kubiak’s Saints
21 personnel:
SEA 1.1% (21st)
NO 16.1% (4th)12 personnel:
SEA 16% (24th)
NO 30% (7th)2025 Seahawks will be grounding and pounding https://t.co/i0Ol0YbdF0 pic.twitter.com/CZqy1XpIAj
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 27, 2025
I fear that in the near and middle future, which is what matters in dynasty leagues, JSN will be trapped in a poor situation with a poor quarterback and an offense that doesn't throw the ball enough. In addition, Kubiak's scheme in New Orleans heavily involved passes to the running backs, which shouldn't help.
JSN's value is massively inflated by the thinking that he had a Year 2 breakout, and his actual upside was mirrored by his PPR production. But he didn't truly break out until after Metcalf's injury. Early in the season, it was even tough for him to clearly outproduce Tyler Lockett, who turned 32 early in the 2024 season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the current WR13 (ADP 23.6) in Underdog drafts, feels massively overvalued:
+ Potential QB downgrade going from Geno to Darnold
+ Could be playing out of position (out-wide) frequently with Kupp now in town (will he able to transition?)
+…
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) April 5, 2025
"Oh well, it doesn't matter, he is good, so they will find out a way to make it work, and he will dominate" is a valid point only to an extent. Why would you draft WRs with a ton of question marks around their situation and potentially overinflated production when you don't have to? It makes no sense. I'm looking elsewhere.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
There's apparently still a contingent of people who are certain that Olave will break out and become an elite WR1 at any time now. As time passes, however, it may become increasingly clear that such a scenario is highly unlikely to occur. Quarterback Jameis Winston, known maker of star fantasy WRs, is gone.
Things haven't really been the same for Olave since. He's enjoyed nice efficiency, but that's about it. With quarterback Derek Carr now retired, the Saints might be a dumpster fire on offense for a while to come. They're in cap hell, and their quarterback situation is absolutely terrible.
This was the frightening hit on Chris Olave, who is now on a stretcher and being carted off the field.
Olave has suffered at least three documented concussions in his NFL career.pic.twitter.com/VXrewx3C7s https://t.co/7MK4rS6VX8
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 3, 2024
Add to that his injury-prone nature and slight build, likely contributing to that, and I'm just not interested in Olave moving forward. I don't think he was ever as good as he was hyped to be.
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