Emeka Egbuka, Tyler Shough, Quinshon Judkins - Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Busts

Justin's fantasy football rookie draft avoids for 2025. His overvalued dynasty NFL rookies. Why will Emeka Egbuka, Tyler Shough and Quinshon Judkins bust in 2025 dynasty fantasy football?

The 2025 NFL Draft is behind us, which means many readers are likely starting their dynasty rookie drafts. About half of mine are going at the moment, for example.

That means now is the time to worry about which rookies will pan out in fantasy and which will find themselves in situations where they won't reach their fantasy potential.

Below are three rookies who are set to be fantasy football busts. Some of these players are good football players who just landed in crowded situations, while one is an example of a team making a baffling decision regarding the most important position on the football field: quarterback.

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Emeka Egbuka - WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While Emeka Egbuka could easily be a fantasy riser in the future, he starts his NFL career off in a fairly rough spot as he'll be behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the pecking order in Tampa Bay. This potentially threatens his entire NFL future, as getting off to a slow start puts him behind the eight ball going forward.

Egbuka showed plenty of talent at Ohio State, catching 24 touchdowns over his final three seasons with the Buckeyes. He was one of the most productive players in school history.

That's what Egbuka's path to NFL value looks like: productivity. He's not someone who will constantly bust off big plays. He'll need plenty of targets and could develop into a version of another former Ohio State wide receiver, Michael Thomas.

However, Thomas made a huge NFL impact from the start because his quarterback was Drew Brees, and he was immediately the most talented wide receiver when he joined the Saints in 2016.

Trying to project targets between Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillanpic.twitter.com/Apb2tT4TtC

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 25, 2025

Egbuka is not in that situation. Evans and Godwin are getting older, but they're still better at this point than Egbuka. While Baker Mayfield has made huge strides, he's no Brees. Egbuka is a possession receiver who won't have as many opportunities as he would elsewhere to actually get possession of the football.

The rookie receiver is also an example of something that bothers me in dynasty leagues. There's going to be plenty of analysis that suggests he's worth drafting at his ADP because of his long-term upside, but that ignores that the 2025 season is still part of your dynasty league.

Drafting Egbuka, who is set to be his team's No. 3 receiver in 2025, means you're spending something like the 1.07 or 1.08 on a player who won't help your team right now. If you're a rebuilding team, you can wait on Egbuka, but if you want to go after the title this year? He likely doesn't help you a ton.

That should be an important consideration, right? Team context matters, so Egbuka being a third-year riser in 2027 could be great for some managers, but it could really kill a competitive roster's chances of staying competitive.

Tyler Shough - QB - New Orleans Saints

The closer we got to the NFL Draft, the more it felt like we were destined to see Tyler Shough leap up draft boards. Ultimately, the Saints made Shough the third quarterback drafted after Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart.

But, like...why?

Shough was the oldest prospect drafted in this year's NFL Draft. In fact, it's been mentioned that he might be the last player born in the 1990s to be drafted.

Maybe you view that as a sign of his experience and his ability to come in and take over the Saints' starting role right away. In one sense, that's correct — his age and experience mean he probably will be the Saints' starter immediately.

However, that doesn't mean he will be the long-term answer for New Orleans.

Tyler Shough is absolutely the type of QB who can help the Saints land Arch Manning in 2026. Great pick.

— Andy Behrens (@andybehrens) April 25, 2025

This isn't quite the same as Brandon Weeden, who was 28 years old when he was drafted. That move by the Browns in 2012 should go down as one of the worst of all time, because why are you drafting a QB who's almost 30? This isn't exactly that.

But there are parallels. Both players took a bit to show NFL-level skills in college. For Weeden, it was because he went off and played professional baseball for a bit, then spent two seasons on the Oklahoma State bench, biding his time.

For Shough, his late breakout was a combination of things.

He began his career at Oregon, where he was a redshirt freshman. However, at the end of the year, it became clear that the team saw Anthony Brown as its future quarterback, so Shough left for Texas Tech.

In Lubbock, Shough broke his collarbone, ending his 2021 campaign early. In 2022, he dealt with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss some time. In 2023, he suffered a broken fibula early in the year and missed the rest of the season.

The next stop was Louisville, where Shough finally had a full, healthy season and showcased skills that made him look like an NFL prospect. It took until 2024 for a guy who started college in 2019 to look like an NFL quarterback, which feels like a bad sign.

It's just hard to see why Shough can be the answer in New Orleans. Yes, he's got NFL-level skills, but how much more developmental room does he have? Is this version of Shough the best version we'll get?

Quinshon Judkins - RB - Cleveland Browns

It's not that Quinshon Judkins is a bad player. In fact, when the Browns drafted him, it initially felt like a great landing spot for the Ohio State back.

But then the Browns decided to draft another good running back, adding Tennessee's Dylan Sampson later in the draft. That will make it tougher for Judkins to return value in fantasy.

Judkins has the skillset to be a three-down back. He's a versatile runner with the speed to create big plays, but he's also capable of lowering his shoulders and grinding out extra yards. There's a ton to love about Judkins, and when the Browns drafted him, it felt like they had their Nick Chubb replacement.

But man — that Sampson pick really makes it tough to understand the direction of this backfield.

You drafted Quinshon Judkins and then Dylan Sampson. You drafted Dillon Gabriel and then Shedeur Sanders. I have no clue what Cleveland is doing. It seems like there are two people on the joysticks at all times.

— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) April 26, 2025

Probably the biggest concern about Judkins is that he struggles as a pass-blocker. That happens to be something that Sampson showed he was pretty good at in college. Does this mean the Browns see Judkins as their early-down back and Sampson as their passing-down back?

If that's the case, Judkins loses much of his fantasy upside, and it's not like this is just a short-term issue.

The Browns drafted both players in the same class. It's not as easy as saying, "Well, Judkins can just improve his pass blocking to get on the field more," because he's not in a situation where there's an older player ahead of him in the role. It's another rookie. Another player who also has time to improve and solidify his long-term spot on the team.

This just feels like a mess for fantasy. The Browns spending a fourth-round pick on Sampson suggests they really like him. Not as much as they like Judkins, but enough that we have to assume the team sees him having a future with the team. Unless he's a bust, he'll be an eternal roadblock to Judkins' fantasy ceiling.

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